内蒙古ERA5再分析降水数据性能评估与极端降水时空特征分析

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2022.607

Abstract

Abstract:

ERA5 is a new generation reanalysis product launched by the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts that can provide a new source of precipitation data for areas with few ground observation stations. Based on the daily precipitation data of 45 ground stations in Inner Mongolia, China from 2008 to 2017, we evaluated the accuracy of ERA5 reanalysis precipitation data on multiple temporal and spatial scales using multiple evaluation indicators and applied a comprehensive weighting model to construct an extreme precipitation danger index by integrating 13 extreme precipitation indices. We then used principal component analysis, Sen’s slope method, and a Mann-Kendall trend test to analyze the temporal and spatial changes of extreme precipitation and extreme precipitation danger in the region from 1981 to 2021. The results show that: (1) ERA5 can reproduce the precipitation process better; the ERA5 precipitation reanalysis dataset performs better at a monthly time scale than at a daily time scale, and its accuracy is highest in summer and lowest in winter. ERA5 precipitation data are highly correlated with observed data at monthly and seasonal scales (correlation coefficient>0.85) and are strongly correlated with observed data at a daily scale (correlation coefficient=0.68). The detection accuracy of ERA5 data is better for the eastern stations than for the western stations. (2) Extreme precipitation indices showed a downward trend except for daily wet precipitation intensity, total heavy precipitation, and continuous dry days. The annual total wet day precipitation declined fastest, and the Sen’s slope value was -15.74 mm·(10a)^-1. (3) The extreme precipitation indices show clear regional spatial differentiation. Extreme precipitation shows an increase in intensity in western Inner Mongolia, a decrease in frequency, intensity, and duration in mid-Inner Mongolia, and an increase in intensity, frequency, and duration in eastern Inner Mongolia. (4) The extreme precipitation danger index has high central values and shows significant upward trends in Ordos City, Hulun Buir City, Bayannur City, Hinggan League, and other cities/leagues with relatively dense populations and rapid economic development and should therefore receive special attention. The results of this study can facilitate the discovery of better datasets for the analysis of climate factors in Inner Mongolia, and the study provides a theoretical basis for the formulation of climate change adaptation measures and future climate prediction.

Key words: ERA5, precipitation, accuracy evaluation, extreme precipitation index, Inner Mongolia

NIU Yiying, LI Chunlan, WANG Jun, XU Hanqing, LIU Qing. Performance evaluation of ERA5 reanalysis precipitation data and spatiotemporal characteristics of extreme precipitation in Inner Mongolia[J].Arid Land Geography, 2023, 46(9): 1418-1431.

Figures/Tables 12

Fig. 1

Tab. 1

Description of evaluation indicators"

评价指标	计算公式	最优值
相关系数（CC）	$∑ i = 1 n (G i - G -) (S i - S -) ∑ i = 1 n (G i - G -) 2 × ∑ i = 1 n (S i - S -) 2$	1
相对偏差（BIAS）/%	$∑ i = 1 n (S i - G i) ∑ i = 1 n G i × 100 %$	0
均方根误差（RMSE）/mm	$1 n ∑ i = 1 n (S i - G i) 2$	0
命中率（POD）	$H H + M$	1
误报率（FAR）	$F H + F$	0
关键成功指数（CSI）	$H H + F + M$	1

Tab. 1

Tab. 2

Fig. 2

Fig. 3

Fig. 4

Fig. 5

Fig. 6

Fig. 7

Fig. 8

Fig. 9

Fig. 10

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指数	指标	中文名称	定义	单位	权重
频率指数	R10	中雨天数	一年内日降水量≥10 mm的天数	d	0.0690
	R20	暴雨天数	一年内日降水量≥20 mm的天数	d	0.0845
	R30	特大暴雨日数	一年内日降水量≥30 mm的天数	d	0.0868
强度指数	SDII	湿日降水强度	年总降水量与日降水量≥1 mm天数的比值	mm·d^-1	0.0897
	R95p	强降水量	一年内日降水量>第95%分位值的降水量之和	mm	0.0909
	R99p	极强降水量	一年内日降水量>第99%分位值的降水量之和	mm	0.0962
	PRCPTOT	湿日总降水量	一年内日降水量>1 mm的降水量总和	mm	0.0700
	R95pTOT	强降水总量	R95p与PRCPTOT的比值	%	0.0916
	Rx1day	1 d最大降水量	一年内最大日降水量	mm	0.0950
	Rx5day	5 d最大总降水量	一年内连续5 d最大累积降水量	mm	0.0919
	Rx7day	7 d最大总降水量	一年内连续7 d最大累积降水量	mm	0.0904
持续时间指数	CWD	持续湿润日数	一年内日降水量≥1 mm的最长持续天数	d	0.0340
持续时间指数	CDD	持续干燥日数	一年内日降水量<1 mm的最长持续天数	d	0.0100

Performance evaluation of ERA5 reanalysis precipitation data and spatiotemporal characteristics of extreme precipitation in Inner Mongolia

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