Abstract:

Acceleration of the development of new quality productive forces forms part of a strategy to seize the global technological high ground, as well as being an intrinsic requirement of the promotion of high-quality tourism development. Drawing on panel data obtained from 30 provinces in China from 2012 to 2022, this study employs entropy-weighted TOPSIS, DEA-Malmquist models, and methods of spatial analysis to examine the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and differences between new quality productive forces and total factor productivity in tourism. The study found that: (1) China’s new quality productive forces show annual growth but remain at a relatively low level overall. Their development accelerated after 2016, in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, which significantly accelerated the advancement of new quality productive forces. However, regional disparities are relatively pronounced, and they exhibit a tiered pattern, where the eastern region leads the nation, followed by the central region and then the western region, where the gap continues to widen. Spatial evolution has shown a pattern of gradual diffusion from points to areas from the eastern coastal regions toward the interior. (2) From 2012 to 2022, China’s total factor productivity in tourism approached optimal levels, but it exhibited slight efficiency losses. This was primarily due to by declining technological efficiency in tourism, which stemmed from a significant decrease in pure technological efficiency. Spatial evolution shows a divergent pattern, across the central>western>eastern regions, with no significant agglomeration effect. (3) The empirical results indicate that the level of new quality productive forces has a significant positive effect on total factor productivity in tourism, and it exhibits multidimensional characteristics. This conclusion remains valid after a series of robustness tests. (4) Regional heterogeneity studies indicate that, relative to compared to eastern China, new quality productive forces in the central and western regions had a more pronounced effect on the promotion of tourism total factor productivity. A tiered analysis revealed that this promotional effect is primarily concentrated in provinces with low to medium levels of the development of new quality productive forces.

Key words: new quality productive forces, total factor productivity in tourism, impact effects, spatio-temporal differentiation, China