兰州市主城区幼儿园入学可达性及影响因素分析

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.408

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 幼儿园作为教育体系中的低洼地带，其入学可达性的精准量化有助于评估学前教育资源的空间分配效率。以兰州市主城区为案例地，结合幼儿园POI、适龄儿童数量、学位数、道路等级等数据，运用核密度分析、多等级-多出行模式高斯可达性算法对不同等级幼儿园集聚特征、入学可达性进行量化，并运用空间回归模型、双变量空间自相关探讨入学可达性分布的影响因素。结果表明：（1）幼儿园整体呈“一核”“四心”带状分布特征，密集度自东向西递减，省级标准园、市级标准园、区级标准园、一般园基本呈“单核心”空间分布特征。（2）幼儿园整体入学可达性等级呈“重心偏东”“南优北劣”的空间偏向性，不同等级品质幼儿园入学可达性均呈“多中心”结构特征，4类等级园中，一般园入学可达性高值区域最多，反映出其在承担幼儿就近入学方面起主要作用。（3）学龄人口、家庭经济状况、幼儿园招生名额对入学可达性有显著的正向作用，路网密度、公交站、对入学可达性具有负向作用，但相关性不显著，此外幼儿园保教费对入学可达性也具有负向作用。

关键词: 幼儿园, 空间分布, 入学可达性, 影响因素, 兰州市主城区

Abstract:

Accurately quantifying the accessibility of kindergarten education is essential for evaluating the spatial allocation efficiency of resources, particularly in underrepresented areas of the education system. This study focuses on the main urban area of Lanzhou City, Gansu Province, China, utilizing data on kindergarten points of interest, school-age children, available places, and road grades. Using kernel density analysis and a multi-level-multi-travel mode Gaussian accessibility algorithm, we examine the agglomeration characteristics and accessibility of kindergartens at various levels. We also employ a spatial regression model and bivariate spatial autocorrelation to investigate the factors affecting accessibility distribution. The findings reveal that: (1) Kindergartens are distributed in “one core” and “four center” patterns, with density decreasing from east to west. Notably, densely populated areas in Xigu District are independently clustered. The classifications of provincial-level, municipal-level, district-level standard kindergartens, and general kindergartens predominantly exhibit the spatial distribution characteristics of a “single core”. (2) The accessibility of all kindergartens displays a spatial bias trending eastward, and “south-to-north”, and high accessibility areas are concentrated in Chengguan District and Qilihe District. The accessibility of kindergartens, based on their grades and quality, shows a “multi-center” structure, with general kindergartens reflecting the highest accessibility values, indicating their significant role in serving local enrollment. (3) Factors such as school-age population, family economic status, and kindergarten enrollment quotas influence school accessibility. By contrast, road network density and bus stop availability negatively affect accessibility, although this correlation is not significant. Kindergarten education fees also have a negative effect on accessibility.

Key words: kindergarten, spatial distribution, accessibility to enrollment, influencing factors, the main urban area of Lanzhou City

郭念发, 王录仓. 兰州市主城区幼儿园入学可达性及影响因素分析[J]. 干旱区地理, 2025, 48(6): 1043-1054.

GUO Nianfa, WANG Lucang. Analysis of accessibility and influencing factors of kindergarten enrollment in the main urban area of Lanzhou City[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2025, 48(6): 1043-1054.

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道路	步行	自行（电动）车	公交	小汽车
主干道	75	207	287	333
次干道	75	207	120	240
支路	75	207	85	170
其他路	75	207	0	120

自变量	变量描述	数据来源
适龄儿童数量	格网内3~6岁适龄儿童总和/个	人口栅格数据、2014—2017年《兰州年鉴》、七普数据
家庭经济状况	格网内社区房价平均值/元·m^-2	链家网、安居客房产交易网站爬取
路网密度	城市道路网络密度	高德地图路网矢量数据爬
公交站	距公交站0.3 km内赋值2；0.3~1 km赋值为1	高德地图公交站POI点爬取
幼儿园保教费	不同等级幼儿园保教费用标准/元·(生·月)^-1	兰州市教育局官网
幼儿园招生人数	不同等级幼儿园秋季招生人数/个	兰州市教育局官网

区域	栅格数量/个	低可达性		较低可达性		中等可达性		较高可达性		高可达性
区域	栅格数量/个	数量/个	占比/%	数量/个	占比/%	数量/个	占比/%	数量/个	占比/%	数量/个	占比/%
城关区	2066	257	12.4	385	18.6	590	28.6	618	29.9	216	10.5
七里河区	1365	174	12.8	350	25.6	258	18.9	444	32.5	139	10.2
安宁区	1279	457	35.8	189	14.8	343	26.8	204	15.9	86	6.7
西固区	1165	451	38.7	320	27.5	212	18.2	113	9.7	69	5.9

解释变量		OLS结果	解释变量		SEM结果
协变量	学龄人口	0.001（4.292）^***	协变量	学龄人口	0.001（4.259）^***
	家庭经济状况	2.571（1.268）^***		家庭经济状况	2.267（2.465）^**
	路网密度	-0.001（0.001）^*		路网密度	-0.001（0.001）
	公交站	-1.639（1.408）^*		公交站	-1.617（2.747）
	幼儿园保教费	-1.110（1.428）^***		幼儿园保教费	-1.014（1.405）^***
	招生人数	0.005（0.001）^***		招生人数	0.004（0.002）^***
结果指标	常数	0.009（0.012）^***	结果指标	常数	0.014（0.022）^***
	Moran’s I （error）	39.853^***		空间误差项	1114.429^***
	LM（lag）	1526.068^***		Log Likelihood	3203.709
	Robust LM（lag）	4.084		AIC	-6393.420
	LM（error）	1569.102^***		SC	-6346.940
	Robust LM（error）	47.113^***		R²	0.499
	LM（SARMA）	1573.185^***		N	5649
	Log Likelihood	2646.490
	AIC	-5278.990
	SC	-5231.510
	R²	0.349
	N	5649

自变量	Moran’s I值	P值	Z值	自变量	Moran’s I值	P值	Z值
学龄儿童数量	0.292	0.010	53.672	公交站	-0.028	0.010	-5.308
家庭经济状况	0.079	0.001	15.942	幼儿园保教费	-0.121	0.010	-26.417
路网密度	-0.029	0.010	-5.416	幼儿园招生人数	0.518	0.010	90.668