新疆农业碳排放效率时空异质性及其影响因素

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.345

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 在推进低碳农业发展进程中，深入研究农业碳排放效率的时空异质性及其影响因素，对于加速新疆农业经济发展，驱动农业生产绿色转型具有重大意义。以2000—2020年新疆14个地州市作为研究对象，利用非期望产出的SBM模型、Malmquist指数模型对农业碳排放效率进行评估，并采用空间自相关模型分析农业碳排放效率的空间关联特征，最后利用Tobit模型探究新疆农业碳排放效率的影响因素。结果表明：（1） 2000—2020年新疆各地州市农业碳排放效率总体反映出“缓慢-快速-缓慢”的发展轨迹，地区间差异较大。（2） 2000年塔城地区农业碳排放效率呈低-高的集聚特征；2007年昌吉回族自治州处于高-高集聚，到2014年吐鲁番市和昌吉回族自治州位于高-高集聚；2020年巴音郭楞蒙古自治州、哈密市和昌吉回族自治州位于低-高集聚。总体上，高-高集聚型区域呈减小趋势，低-高集聚型区域呈增加态势。（3）耕地规模化程度和农业经济整体发展水平对农业碳排放效率产生正向影响；农业产业结构、作物种植结构以及有效灌溉率对农业碳排放效率产生负向影响。通过对新疆农业碳排放效率的时空异质性及影响因素研究，以期为干旱区农业可持续发展提供理论支撑和实证依据。

关键词: 农业碳排放效率, 非期望产出SBM模型, 空间相关性, 影响因素, 新疆

Abstract:

The promotion of low-carbon agricultural development necessitates in-depth research into the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of agricultural carbon emission efficiency and its influencing factors. This will facilitate the acceleration of Xinjiang’s agricultural economic development while driving the green transformation of agricultural production. This study focused on 14 prefectures and cities in Xinjiang from 2000 to 2020 to assess agricultural carbon emission efficiency. The analysis was conducted using the SBM model of nonexpected output and the Malmquist index. The spatial characteristics of agricultural carbon emission efficiency were further examined using the spatial autocorrelation model, and the Tobit model was applied to explore factors influencing efficiency. The findings suggested the following. (1) From 2000 to 2020, the agricultural carbon emission efficiency in Xinjiang followed a “slow-fast-slow” development pattern, with significant inter-regional disparities. (2) In 2000, the Tacheng Prefecture exhibited a low-high agglomeration pattern in case of agricultural carbon emission efficiency. By 2007, the Changji Hui Autonomous Prefecture transitioned to a high-high agglomeration pattern. Further, by 2014, Turpan City and the Changji Hui Autonomous Prefecture were both exhibited high-high agglomeration. In 2020, the Bayingol Mongolian Autonomous Prefecture, Hami City, and Changji Hui Autonomous Prefecture were situated in a low-high agglomeration. Thus, a general decline in regions exhibiting high-high agglomeration and an increase in those with low-high agglomeration was observed. (3) The extent of arable land scale and the overall advancement of the agricultural economy positively affected the agricultural carbon emission efficiency. Further, the agricultural industry structure, crop cultivation structure, and effective irrigation rate negatively affected the agricultural carbon emission efficiency. Thus, this study highlights the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of agricultural carbon emission efficiency and its influencing factors in Xinjiang. The findings are expected to provide theoretical support and empirical evidence for the sustainable development of agriculture in arid areas.

Key words: agricultural carbon emission efficiency, non-expected output SBM model, spatial correlation, influencing factors, Xinjiang

刘海军, 张海虹, 闫俊杰, 李想, 李高峰. 新疆农业碳排放效率时空异质性及其影响因素[J]. 干旱区地理, 2025, 48(5): 866-878.

LIU Haijun, ZHANG Haihong, YAN Junjie, LI Xiang, LI Gaofeng. Spatiotemporal heterogeneity and its influencing factors of agricultural carbon emission efficiency in Xinjiang[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2025, 48(5): 866-878.

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指标	变量	变量说明
投入指标	化肥投入	化肥施用折纯量/10⁴ t
	灌溉	有效灌溉面积/10³ hm²
	机械投入	农用机械总动力/kW
	牲畜投入	牛、羊数量采用各年末存栏量/10⁴头
期望产出指标	农业总产值	农林牧渔总产值/10⁴元
非期望产出指标	农业碳排放量	化肥、灌溉、动物养殖等的排放总量/10⁴ t

类别	碳排放源	碳排放系数	数据来源
农业物资	化肥施用折纯量	0.896 kg C·kg^-1	美国橡树岭国家实验室
	农用机械总动力	0.180 kg C·kW^-1	朱巧娴等^[20]
	有效灌溉面积	266.480 kg C·hm^-2	段华平等^[22]
牲畜养殖	牛	415.910 kg C·头^-1·a^-1	联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会
	羊	35.182 kg C·头^-1·a^-1	联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会

地州市	农业碳排放量/10⁷t
地州市	2000年	2007年	2014年	2020年	2000—2020年平均值
乌鲁木齐市	7.35	11.24	0.80	2.36	5.44
克拉玛依市	0.96	2.57	5.24	4.73	3.38
昌吉州	71.33	80.49	92.08	116.06	89.99
伊犁州直	158.05	184.12	63.81	73.96	119.99
塔城地区	69.50	87.03	110.48	124.99	98.00
阿勒泰地区	26.64	32.45	47.54	59.58	41.55
博州	19.05	20.77	26.51	37.33	25.92
吐鲁番市	8.54	8.12	14.07	19.27	12.50
哈密市	11.76	11.74	18.26	16.10	14.47
巴州	35.54	52.48	81.30	79.78	62.28
阿克苏地区	89.59	92.56	64.35	116.24	90.69
克州	10.16	8.11	3.75	7.64	7.42
喀什地区	103.31	135.71	43.60	84.82	91.86
和田地区	42.87	43.98	34.66	47.86	42.34
平均值	46.76	55.10	43.32	56.48	50.42
总量	654.65	771.37	606.45	790.72	705.83

地区	地州市	农业碳排放效率
地区	地州市	2000年	2007年	2014年	2020年	2000—2020年平均值	区平均值
北疆	乌鲁木齐市	0.124	0.270	1.000	1.000	0.599	0.370
	克拉玛依市	0.226	0.610	0.758	1.000	0.649
	昌吉州	0.127	0.244	0.553	0.404	0.332
	伊犁州直	0.114	0.154	0.386	0.475	0.282
	塔城地区	0.096	0.139	0.323	0.349	0.227
	阿勒泰地区	0.110	0.170	0.232	0.355	0.217
	博州	0.101	0.194	0.476	0.371	0.286
南疆	巴州	0.123	0.243	0.591	0.509	0.367	0.319
	阿克苏地区	0.099	0.156	0.461	0.502	0.305
	克州	0.084	0.135	0.235	0.283	0.184
	喀什地区	0.102	0.194	0.508	0.739	0.386
	和田地区	0.124	0.188	0.403	0.700	0.354
东疆	吐鲁番市	0.179	0.335	0.824	1.000	0.585	0.445
	哈密市	0.105	0.203	0.409	0.507	0.306	0.445
平均值		0.122	0.231	0.511	0.585	0.363
总量		1.714	3.235	7.159	8.194	5.079

地区	地州市	技术效率	技术进步	纯技术效率	规模效率	全要素生产率
北疆	乌鲁木齐市	1.284	1.116	1.255	1.022	1.433
	克拉玛依市	1.000	1.054	1.000	1.000	1.054
	昌吉州	1.134	0.997	1.000	1.134	1.131
	伊犁州直	1.162	1.024	1.000	1.162	1.189
	塔城地区	1.116	0.999	1.042	1.071	1.115
	阿勒泰地区	1.166	1.006	1.029	1.133	1.174
	博州	1.181	0.994	1.074	1.099	1.174
南疆	巴州	0.974	1.102	1.000	0.974	1.074
	阿克苏地区	1.156	1.041	1.156	1.001	1.204
	克州	0.936	1.139	0.875	1.070	1.067
	喀什地区	1.160	1.094	1.000	1.160	1.268
	和田地区	1.206	0.978	1.032	1.169	1.179
东疆	吐鲁番市	1.000	1.047	1.000	1.000	1.047
	哈密市	1.087	0.980	0.797	1.364	1.065