中国城市生态韧性时空特征及影响因素分析

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doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.379

摘要： 系统分析城市生态韧性影响因素、提高城市生态韧性水平对于实现城市可持续发展、建设“韧性城市”至关重要。基于2005—2021年中国281个地级市的面板数据，从抵抗力、适应力和恢复力3个维度构建评价指标，刻画了城市生态韧性的时空演变特征，并综合运用时空地理加权回归模型及全局趋势分析对中国城市生态韧性影响因素及时空异质性进行探究。结果表明：（1） 2005—2021年中国城市生态韧性水平由0.0207上升至0.0248，年平均增长率为1.140%，生态韧性重心由东北向西南方向迁移，生态韧性水平差异呈先扩大后缩小的趋势。（2）经济发展、产业结构、地形因素、环境规制及人力资本对城市生态韧性具有正向促进作用，但各因素的影响存在明显的时空异质性，不同区域生态韧性影响因素的作用大小和方向不同。（3）各影响因素对城市生态韧性的影响在东西方向的变化趋势大于南北方向，产业结构水平对城市生态韧性的影响在东西方向上最敏感，环境规制对城市生态韧性的影响在南北方向最敏感。

关键词: 城市生态韧性, 时空地理加权回归模型, 影响因素, 时空异质性

Abstract:

The systematic analysis of the factors influencing urban ecological resilience and improvement in its levels are essential for achieving sustainable urban development and fostering “resilient cities”. Based on panel data from 281 prefecture-level cities of China collected between 2005 and 2021, this study constructed evaluation indexes across three dimensions: resistance, adaptability, and resilience. The spatial and temporal evolution of urban ecological resilience were characterized, and spatial and temporal geographically weighted regression models were applied. In addition, a global trend analysis was conducted to explore the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of influencing factors. The results showed the following. (1) From 2005 to 2021, the ecological resilience level of Chinese cities increased from 0.0207 to 0.0248, with an average annual growth rate of 1.140%. Over this period, the center of gravity for ecological resilience shifted along a northeast-southwest direction. The difference in ecological resilience levels initially expanded but then narrowed. (2) Economic development, industrial structure, topographical factors, environmental regulations, and human capital demonstrated positive effects on urban ecological resilience. However, the influence of these factors exhibited obvious spatial and temporal heterogeneity, with their effects varying significantly in terms of magnitude and direction across different regions. (3) The impact of influencing factors on urban ecological resilience exhibited a greater variation along the east-west direction compared to the north-south direction. The ecological resilience was observed to be most sensitive to changes in industrial structure along the east-west direction, while environmental regulation had the greatest sensitivity along the north-south direction.

Key words: urban ecological resilience, spatiotemporal geographically weighted regression model, influencing factors, spatiotemporal heterogeneity

王立奇, 李国柱. 中国城市生态韧性时空特征及影响因素分析[J]. 干旱区地理, 2025, 48(5): 893-904.

WANG Liqi, LI Guozhu. Spatial-temporal characteristics and influencing factors of urban ecological resilience in China[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2025, 48(5): 893-904.

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目标层	系统层	指标层	单位	指标性质
生态韧性	抵抗力	人口密度	人·km^-2	负向
		单位GDP工业废水排放量	t·元^-1	负向
		单位GDP工业烟粉尘排放量	t·元^-1	负向
		单位面积工业SO₂排放量	t·km^-2	负向
		人均建成区面积	km²·人^-1	负向
	适应力	生活垃圾无害化处理率	%	正向
		生活污水处理率	%	正向
		一般工业固体废物综合利用率	%	正向
	恢复力	建成区绿化覆盖率	%	正向
		人均公园绿地面积	km²·人^-1	正向
		人均水资源占有量	m³·人^-1	正向
		人均土地面积	km²·人^-1	正向

影响因素	指标	方差膨胀因子
经济发展	人均GDP/元	1.73
产业结构	第三产业增加值/第二产业增加值/%	1.04
地形因素	地形起伏度/(°)	1.06
环境规制	环保词频数占比/%	1.75
人力资本	普通高等学校在校学生数/人	1.39

模型	最小二乘法模型（OLS）	时空地理加权回归模型（GTWR）
校正赤池信息准测（AICc）	3500.289	846.076
拟合优度（R²）	0.190	0.550

变量	最小值	1/4分位数	3/4分位数	最大值	均值	显著性占比/%
经济发展	-0.061	0.133	0.202	0.410	0.171	99.288
产业结构	-4.975	0.444	1.169	4.617	0.603	97.111
地形因素	-0.643	0.010	0.023	0.277	0.010	93.992
环境规制	-0.040	0.009	0.035	0.128	0.025	79.715
人力资本	-0.141	-0.001	0.038	0.176	0.018	91.710