黄河流域地级市绿色发展水平测度与空间收敛性研究

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.702

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 绿色发展是推动黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展的关键举措。以2006—2021年黄河流域81个地级市为研究对象，基于绿色发展的逻辑与内在机理构建综合评价指标体系，应用熵权法、核密度估计、β收敛模型等方法探究黄河流域地级市绿色发展水平、分布特征与空间收敛性。结果表明：（1）黄河流域地级市绿色发展水平呈上升趋势，游段间形成了“下游>中游>上游”的发展格局，地级市间差异显著。（2）核密度曲线峰值分布不均、宽度变窄且存在右拖尾现象，绿色发展水平存在不均衡性，部分地级市绿色发展水平较高且与其他地级市间的差距较大。（3）全流域及三大游段绿色发展水平均存在显著的绝对β收敛与条件β收敛，收敛速度呈“上游>中游>下游”的增长态势。此外，三大游段地级市绿色发展水平在收敛过程中存在差异化的空间溢出效应。研究结论对提高黄河流域地级市绿色发展水平及促进流域协调发展具有重要的现实意义。

关键词: 绿色发展水平, 统计测度, 分布特征, 空间收敛性, 黄河流域

Abstract:

Green development represents s critical approach for advancing ecological protection and high-quality development in the Yellow River Basin. This study examines green development patterns across 81 prefecture-level cities in the Yellow River Basin from 2006 to 2021. Based on the logical framework and internal mechanisms of green development, we constructed a comprehensive evaluation index system and employed the entropy weight method, kernel density estimation, and β convergence models to analyze development levels, distribution characteristics, and spatial convergence. Our analysis revealed three key findings: (1) Temporal and spatial patterns: Green development levels across prefecture-level cities in the Yellow River Basin demonstrated consistent improvement throughout the study period. A clear spatial gradient emerged with downstream regions outperforming midstream areas, which in turn surpassed upstream regions. Significant differences persist between individual prefecture-level cities. (2) Distribution characteristics: Kernel density analysis showed uneven peak distribution with a narrow width and pronounced right tail extension, indicating a substantial imbalance in green development levels. Some cities have achieved notably high green development levels, creating significant gaps compared to other urban cities in the basin. (3) Convergence dynamics: Both absolute β convergence and conditional β convergence were statistically significant across the entire basin and within the three major river sections. Convergence rates followed an “upstream>midstream>downstream” progression. Additionally, differentiated spatial spillover effects were observed in green development levels across the three major convergence processes. These findings over valuable insights for enhancing green development levels in prefecture-level cities throughout the Yellow River Basin and promoting coordinated regional development strategies that address the identified spatial disparities.

Key words: level of green development, statistical measure, distribution characteristics, spatial convergence, Yellow River Basin

任诗琦, 王永瑜. 黄河流域地级市绿色发展水平测度与空间收敛性研究[J]. 干旱区地理, 2025, 48(6): 1031-1042.

REN Shiqi, WANG Yongyu. Measurement and spatial convergence of green development level of prefecture-level cities in the Yellow River Basin[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2025, 48(6): 1031-1042.

图/表 6

图1

图2

表1

表2

黄河流域地级市绿色发展水平测度结果"

区域	地级市	2006年	2011年	2016年	2021年		均值		增速/%
上游地区	西宁市	0.389	0.441	0.464	0.478		0.443		1.53
	兰州市	0.392	0.459	0.529	0.549		0.482		2.67
	嘉峪关市	0.353	0.415	0.386	0.465		0.405		2.12
	金昌市	0.361	0.409	0.414	0.440		0.406		1.46
	白银市	0.357	0.308	0.429	0.442		0.402		1.59
	天水市	0.326	0.372	0.403	0.430		0.383		2.13
	武威市	0.370	0.350	0.425	0.438		0.396		1.23
	张掖市	0.399	0.411	0.435	0.438		0.421		0.65
	酒泉市	0.369	0.427	0.439	0.459		0.424		1.63
	定西市	0.352	0.386	0.403	0.430		0.393		1.48
	陇南市	0.344	0.355	0.397	0.424		0.380		1.55
	银川市	0.414	0.451	0.491	0.514		0.468		1.61
	石嘴山市	0.290	0.408	0.417	0.454		0.392		3.77
	吴忠市	0.343	0.419	0.411	0.441		0.404		1.90
	固原市	0.356	0.385	0.406	0.431		0.395		1.40
	中卫市	0.328	0.365	0.416	0.429		0.385		2.05
	呼和浩特市	0.425	0.465	0.496	0.528		0.479		1.62
	包头市	0.419	0.467	0.498	0.506		0.473		1.38
	乌海市	0.322	0.422	0.447	0.439		0.408		2.42
	赤峰市	0.351	0.419	0.455	0.458		0.421		2.03
	通辽市	0.369	0.411	0.438	0.435		0.413		1.19
	鄂尔多斯市	0.390	0.452	0.471	0.493		0.452		1.76
	呼伦贝尔市	0.391	0.406	0.433	0.440		0.418		0.84
	巴彦淖尔市	0.385	0.400	0.418	0.428		0.408		0.74
	乌兰察布市	0.379	0.382	0.427	0.426		0.404		0.83
	均值	0.369	0.396	0.439	0.458		0.418		1.66
中游地区	平凉市	0.381	0.387	0.425	0.438		0.408		1.00
	庆阳市	0.364	0.390	0.410	0.421		0.396		1.04
	西安市	0.423	0.513	0.602	0.723		0.565		4.73
	铜川市	0.394	0.386	0.406	0.436		0.406		0.71
	宝鸡市	0.382	0.429	0.438	0.455		0.426		1.27
	咸阳市	0.382	0.411	0.447	0.458		0.425		1.33
	渭南市	0.360	0.417	0.440	0.449		0.417		1.65
	延安市	0.358	0.394	0.413	0.444		0.402		1.60
	汉中市	0.320	0.403	0.428	0.444		0.399		2.58
	榆林市	0.347	0.431	0.438	0.456		0.418		2.09
	安康市	0.393	0.393	0.430	0.451		0.417		0.98
	商洛市	0.365	0.387	0.403	0.433		0.397		1.24
	太原市	0.443	0.505	0.531	0.575		0.514		1.99
	大同市	0.363	0.450	0.450	0.469		0.433		1.95
	阳泉市	0.385	0.426	0.427	0.441		0.420		0.97
	长治市	0.369	0.408	0.424	0.459		0.415		1.63
	晋城市	0.381	0.424	0.433	0.456		0.424		1.31
	朔州市	0.333	0.411	0.441	0.439		0.406		2.12
	晋中市	0.375	0.386	0.433	0.469		0.416		1.67
中游地区	运城市	0.321	0.431	0.419	0.457	0.407		2.82
	忻州市	0.305	0.383	0.425	0.443	0.389		3.02
	临汾市	0.352	0.394	0.408	0.423	0.394		1.34
	吕梁市	0.376	0.394	0.423	0.440	0.408		1.13
	三门峡市	0.360	0.402	0.440	0.460	0.416		1.85
	焦作市	0.370	0.403	0.430	0.456	0.415		1.55
	洛阳市	0.336	0.410	0.459	0.514	0.430		3.53
	均值	0.365	0.413	0.438	0.464	0.422		1.81
下游地区	郑州市	0.429	0.464	0.534	0.650	0.519		3.43
	开封市	0.332	0.406	0.437	0.468	0.411		2.73
	平顶山市	0.387	0.420	0.440	0.474	0.430		1.50
	安阳市	0.389	0.432	0.445	0.462	0.432		1.25
	鹤壁市	0.373	0.394	0.411	0.476	0.414		1.84
	新乡市	0.365	0.421	0.442	0.471	0.425		1.94
	濮阳市	0.389	0.396	0.424	0.459	0.417		1.20
	许昌市	0.369	0.416	0.436	0.478	0.425		1.97
	漯河市	0.366	0.381	0.404	0.456	0.402		1.64
	南阳市	0.346	0.392	0.432	0.486	0.414		2.70
	商丘市	0.343	0.408	0.396	0.465	0.403		2.37
	泰安市	0.398	0.435	0.479	0.482	0.449		1.41
	威海市	0.424	0.459	0.498	0.507	0.472		1.31
	日照市	0.418	0.453	0.454	0.485	0.453		1.07
	临沂市	0.416	0.454	0.473	0.500	0.461		1.35
	信阳市	0.373	0.421	0.434	0.463	0.423		1.61
	周口市	0.349	0.385	0.426	0.448	0.402		1.89
	驻马店市	0.368	0.396	0.437	0.466	0.417		1.78
	济南市	0.478	0.517	0.582	0.694	0.568		3.01
	青岛市	0.475	0.519	0.600	0.680	0.569		2.88
	淄博市	0.446	0.487	0.496	0.527	0.489		1.21
	枣庄市	0.386	0.461	0.451	0.473	0.443		1.50
	东营市	0.443	0.464	0.504	0.511	0.481		1.02
	烟台市	0.437	0.474	0.517	0.544	0.493		1.63
	潍坊市	0.390	0.460	0.487	0.545	0.471		2.65
	济宁市	0.406	0.445	0.474	0.504	0.457		1.61
	德州市	0.432	0.432	0.454	0.484	0.451		0.80
	聊城市	0.363	0.423	0.449	0.463	0.425		1.84
	滨州市	0.381	0.469	0.458	0.481	0.447		1.75
	菏泽市	0.370	0.413	0.462	0.447	0.423		1.39
	均值	0.395	0.437	0.465	0.502	0.450		1.81
全流域	均值	0.377	0.421	0.448	0.476	0.431		1.75

表2

图3

表3

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目标层	一级指标	二级指标	三级指标	属性
城市绿色发展水平	基础	经济发展	GDP总量/10⁴元	+
城市绿色发展水平			人均GDP/元	+
			GDP增长率/%	+
			第三产业占GDP的比例/%	+
		绿色生活	用水普及率/%	+
			燃气普及率/%	+
			万人拥有公共汽车数量/辆	+
		资源基础	供水总量/10⁴ m³	+
			城市供水综合生产能力/10⁴ m³·d^-1	+
			人口密度/人·km^-2	-
	动力	环保设施	公共厕所数量/座	+
			污水处理厂数量/座	+
			环卫专用车数量/台	+
		绿色创新	绿色发明专利获得/项	+
			绿色实用新型专利获得数量/项	+
			绿色发明占发明总数的比例/%	+
			绿色实用新型占实用新型总数的比例/%	+
		科教支持	科技支出占预算支出的比例/%	+
			教育支出占预算支出的比例/%	+
			每万人在校大学生数量/人	+
	结果	资源节约	单位GDP水耗/m³·(10⁴元)^-1	-
			单位GDP能耗/10⁴ tce	-
			单位GDP建设用地面积 /km²·(10⁴元)^-1	-
		清洁生产	工业废水排放强度/t·(10⁴元)^-1	-
			工业SO₂排放强度/t·(10⁴元)^-1	-
			工业烟（粉）尘排放强度/t·(10⁴元)^-1	-
		生态宜居	PM_2.5浓度/μg·m^-3	-
			建成区绿化覆盖率/%	+
			生活垃圾处理率/%	+
			污水处理率/%	+

区域	变量	绝对收敛		条件收敛
区域	变量	地理相邻权重矩阵	地理距离权重矩阵	地理相邻权重矩阵	地理距离权重矩阵
全流域	β	-0.502^***	-0.498^***	-0.507^***	-0.510^***
		（-21.54）	（-21.42）	（-21.51）	（-21.72）
	ρ	0.018	-0.226	0.006	-0.366^**
		（0.45）	（-1.28）	（0.15）	（-1.97）
	收敛速度	0.044	0.043	0.044	0.045
	控制变量	不控制	不控制	控制	控制
上游地区	β	-0.626^***	-0.614^***	-0.621^***	-0.597^***
		（-14.41）	（-14.42）	（-14.17）	（-14.11）
	ρ	0.077	-0.027	0.033	-0.150
		（1.33）	（-0.16）	（0.55）	（-0.84）
	收敛速度	0.061	0.059	0.061	0.057
	控制变量	不控制	不控制	控制	控制
中游地区	β	-0.530^***	-0.536^***	-0.540^***	-0.542^***
		（-13.53）	（-13.22）	（-13.47）	（-13.18）
	ρ	-0.106	-0.795^***	-0.120	-0.983^***
		（-1.39）	（-3.33）	（-1.56）	（-3.93）
	收敛速度	0.047	0.048	0.049	0.049
	控制变量	不控制	不控制	控制	控制
下游地区	β	-0.393^***	-0.389^***	-0.449^***	-0.477^***
		（-10.24）	（-10.16）	（-11.11）	（-11.63）
	ρ	-0.213^***	-0.665^***	-0.212^***	-0.844^***
		（-3.08）	（-3.25）	（-3.05）	（-3.98）
	收敛速度	0.031	0.031	0.037	0.041
	控制变量	不控制	不控制	控制	控制