天山冰湖分布时空特征及驱动力分析

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2023.673

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

冰湖面积变化是全球气候变化的指示器。天山地形复杂，冰湖分布广泛，其变化特征和对气候变化的响应机制还需要进一步探究。基于Google Earth Engine（GEE）平台研究天山近20 a的冰湖变化情况，同时结合降水和温度进行驱动力分析。结果表明：（1） 2020年天山共有冰湖1532个，冰湖面积164.02 km²；天山冰湖分布呈现西多东少的特点，东、西2个部分冰湖面积年平均增长率分别为3.47%和0.63%。（2）天山海拔低于3600 m范围内的冰湖普遍呈扩增趋势，面积<0.1 km²的冰湖变化更为明显。（3）地理探测器结果表明，温度和冰川是影响天山冰湖变化的主要驱动因子。2000—2020年天山东部降水明显增加，温度呈不显著降低趋势，该区域冰湖面积在稳定充足的冰川融水与径流补给下持续扩张。研究结果可以为天山水资源的合理开发以及冰湖溃决灾害风险评估提供科学依据。

关键词: 时空特征, 冰湖, GEE, 气候变化, 驱动力分析

Abstract:

Glacial lake area change is an indicator of global climate change. The topography of Tianshan Mountains is complex, and the glacial lakes are widely distributed, so their variation characteristics and response mechanism to climate change need to be further explored. Based on the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform, this paper studied the changes of glacial lakes in the Tianshan Mountains in the past 20 years, and analyzed the driving forces in combination with precipitation and temperature. The results showed that: (1) There were 1532 glacial lakes in Tianshan Mountains in 2020, with an area of 164.02 km². The distribution of glacial lakes in the Tianshan Mountains was characterized by more in the west and less in the east, and glacial lake area with an annual average growth rate of 3.47% and 0.63% in the east and west, respectively. (2) The glacial lakes at lower altitudes (<3600 m) in the study area generally showed an expanding trend, and the glacial lakes with an area <0.1 km² showed a more obvious change. (3) The results of the geographic detector showed that temperature and glaciers were the main driving factors affecting the change of the glacial lakes in Tianshan Mountains. From 2000 to 2020, the precipitation in the eastern Tianshan Mountains increased significantly, while the temperature showed an insignificant trend of decrease. The glacial lake area in this region continued to expand under the stable and sufficient glacial meltwater and runoff recharge. Research results can provide scientific basis for the rational development of water resources and the risk assessment of glacial lake outburst disaster in the Tianshan Mountains.

Key words: spatiotemporal characteristics, glacial lakes, GEE, climate change, driving force analysis

王南, 刘泽轩, 郑江华, 仲涛, 孟乘枫. 天山冰湖分布时空特征及驱动力分析[J]. 干旱区地理, 2024, 47(9): 1472-1481.

WANG Nan, LIU Zexuan, ZHENG Jianghua, ZHONG Tao, MENG Chengfeng. Spatiotemporal characteristics and driving forces of glacial lakes in Tianshan Mountains[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2024, 47(9): 1472-1481.

图/表 14

图1

表1

表2

双因子交互作用类型"

判据	交互作用类型
$q (X 1 ⋂ X 2) < M i n [q X 1, q X 2]$	非线性减弱
$M i n [q X 1, q X 2] < q (X 1 ⋂ X 2) < M a x [q X 1, q X 2]$	单因子非线性减弱
$q (X 1 ⋂ X 2) > M a x [q X 1, q X 2]$	双因子增强
$q (X 1 ⋂ X 2) = q X 1 + q X 2$	独立
$q (X 1 ⋂ X 2) > q X 1 + q X 2$	非线性增强

表2

图2

图3

表3

图4

图5

图6

图7

表4

表5

表6

图8

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传感器	获取时间	分辨率/m	传感器	获取时间	分辨率/m
TM	2000年8—11月	30	TM	2011年9—10月	30
TM	2001年9—10月	30	TM	2012年8—11月	30
TM	2002年9—10月	30	OLI	2013年9—10月	30
ETM+	2003年9—10月	30	OLI	2014年9—10月	30
ETM+	2004年9—10月	30	OLI	2015年9—10月	30
ETM+	2005年8—11月	30	OLI	2016年9—10月	30
ETM+	2006年9—10月	30	OLI	2017年9—10月	30
ETM+	2007年9—10月	30	OLI	2018年9—10月	30
TM	2008年9—10月	30	OLI	2019年9—10月	30
TM	2009年9—10月	30	OLI	2020年9—10月	30
TM	2010年9—10月	30

年份	天山西部		天山东部
年份	数量/个	面积/km²	数量/个	面积/km²
2000	760	79.38	525	42.90
2005	898	112.20	597	65.39
2010	827	84.30	674	68.39
2015	871	95.61	580	60.97
2020	828	89.87	704	74.14

年份	冰川变化量/km²	冰川平均变化速率/%·a^-1	冰湖平均变化速率/%·a^-1
2000—2005	-11443.39	-4.20	7.54
2005—2010	-8138.94	-3.99	-2.34
2010—2015	-3952.99	-2.55	0.42
2015—2020	-3577.59	-2.72	0.79

因变量	驱动因素	解释度（q值）
冰湖面积	降水变化率	0.2999
	温度变化率	0.3543
	冰川面积	0.5221
	冰川数量	0.4678
	平均海拔高度	0.3585
冰湖数量	降水变化率	0.5245
	温度变化率	0.8274^*
	冰川面积	0.4792
	冰川数量	0.2873
	平均海拔高度	0.8358^*

因变量	驱动因素交互	解释度（q值）	交互作用类型
冰湖面积	冰川面积∩冰川数量	0.6936	双因子增强
	冰川面积∩降水变化率	0.9236	非线性增强
	冰川面积∩温度变化率	0.9629	非线性增强
	冰川面积∩平均海拔高度	0.9194	非线性增强
	冰川数量∩降水变化率	0.9053	非线性增强
	冰川数量∩温度变化率	0.5593	双因子增强
	冰川数量∩平均海拔高度	0.5592	双因子增强
	降水变化率∩温度变化率	0.5479	双因子增强
	降水变化率∩平均海拔高度	0.5480	双因子增强
	温度变化率∩平均海拔高度	0.4206	双因子增强
冰湖数量	冰川面积∩冰川数量	0.8893	双因子增强
	冰川面积∩降水变化率	0.9201	双因子增强
	冰川面积∩温度变化率	0.9568	双因子增强
	冰川面积∩平均海拔高度	0.9398	双因子增强
	冰川数量∩降水变化率	0.7819	双因子增强
	冰川数量∩温度变化率	0.8674	双因子增强
	冰川数量∩平均海拔高度	0.8673	双因子增强
	降水变化率∩温度变化率	0.9113	双因子增强
	降水变化率∩平均海拔高度	0.9111	双因子增强
	温度变化率∩平均海拔高度	0.8672	双因子增强