1961—2022年中国西北干旱区夏季降水变化特征

摘要/Abstract

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doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.207

摘要：

基于1961—2022年6—8月西北干旱区102个气象站的逐日降水数据，分析了中国西北干旱区极端降水和非极端降水的时空变化特征和不同区域2种类型降水的变化差异。结果表明：（1）中国西北干旱区夏季降水量整体呈增多趋势，伊犁河谷和塔里木盆地西部尤其显著，对年总降水量贡献的平均值超过40%。（2）中国西北干旱区夏季极端降水量对总降水量的贡献约为45%，整体呈增加趋势，塔里木盆地西部、河西-阿拉善和新疆北部尤为显著。（3）中国西北干旱区大部分气象站的夏季极端降水量、极端降水天数和极端降水强度均呈增加增强趋势；大部分气象站的非极端降水天数显著减少，但非极端降水强度明显增强。塔里木盆地西部夏季降水量的增加由极端降水量和非极端降水量增加共同贡献，分别贡献了总降水量增加值的61%和39%，其余区域夏季降水量的增加主要由极端降水量增加贡献。研究成果加深了对中国西北干旱区夏季2种类型降水气候变化特征的认识。

关键词: 极端降水, 非极端降水, 时空特征, 区域差异, 中国西北干旱区

Abstract:

Using summer daily precipitation data from 102 meteorological stations from June to August during 1961—2022, the spatial and temporal characteristics of extreme and non-extreme precipitation were analyzed, and variations in these two precipitation types across different areas of the arid region of northwest China were compared. The results reveal the following: (1) Summer precipitation in the arid region of northwest China exhibited an increasing trend, particularly in the Ili River Valley and the western Tarim Basin, contributing an average of more than 40% to total annual precipitation. (2) Extreme precipitation in summer accounted for approximately 45% of total precipitation in the arid region, with an overall increasing trend, notably in the western Tarim Basin, Hexi-Alagxa, and northern Xinjiang. (3) Most meteorological stations in the region recorded increasing trends in extreme precipitation, extreme precipitation days, and extreme precipitation intensity. However, the number of non-extreme precipitation days showed significant decreases at most stations, while non-extreme precipitation intensity increased significantly. In the western Tarim Basin, the increase in summer precipitation was driven by both extreme and non-extreme precipitation, contributing 61% and 39% of the total increase, respectively. In other regions, the rise in summer precipitation was predominantly due to the increase in extreme precipitation. These findings enhance understanding of summer precipitation climate change in the arid region of northwest China.

Key words: extreme precipitation, non-extreme precipitation, spatial and temporal characteristics, regional difference, arid region of northwest China

郑孟林, 赵勇, 杨霞. 1961—2022年中国西北干旱区夏季降水变化特征[J]. 干旱区地理, 2025, 48(3): 367-379.

ZHENG Menglin, ZHAO Yong, YANG Xia. Variation characteristics of summer precipitation in the arid region of northwest China from 1961 to 2022[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2025, 48(3): 367-379.

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降水指数	定义方法	单位
极端降水量	日降水量大于极端降水阈值的降水量之和	mm
极端降水天数	日降水量大于极端降水阈值的天数之和	d
极端降水强度	极端降水量与极端降水天数之比	mm·d^-1
极端降水对总降水的贡献	极端降水量与总降水量之比	%
非极端降水量	日降水量小于极端降水阈值的降水量之和	mm
非极端降水天数	日降水量小于极端降水阈值的天数之和	d
非极端降水强度	非极端降水量与非极端降水天数之比	mm·d^-1
非极端降水对总降水的贡献	非极端降水量与总降水量之比	%