基于SPEI的1992—2022年塔额盆地干旱时空变化特征

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.004

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

标准化降水蒸散指数（Standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index，SPEI）是反映区域干旱状况的重要参数，基于塔额盆地近31 a逐日气象资料，计算不同时间尺度下的SPEI，采用Mann-Kendall检验、相关性分析等方法，探索塔额盆地干旱演变的时空特征，讨论气温和降水量对SPEI的影响程度及相关性。结果表明：（1）塔额盆地近31 a来全年和四季SPEI均呈下降趋势，整体向干旱化发展。（2）年干旱在1994年开始发生突变，春、夏、秋、冬干旱分别在1995、1992、2009、2008年发生突变。（3）塔额盆地的干旱在空间分布上差异显著，总体上北部干旱比南部严重，南部托里县和铁厂沟地区出现不显著的湿润化趋势。（4）相比于气温，降水量对SPEI的影响更大，尤其是春季降水量。研究结果有助于了解塔额盆地干旱演变特征，为该区域旱灾的预警预防及防灾减灾工作提供科学依据。

关键词: 标准化降水蒸散指数, 时空特征, 干旱, 塔额盆地

Abstract:

The standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) is a crucial indicator reflecting drought conditions. Based on the daily meteorological data of the Ta’e Basin, north Xinjiang, China over the past 31 years, the SPEI at different time scales was calculated. The spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of regional drought in the Ta’e Basin and the relationships between temperature, precipitation, and the SPEI were studied using the Mann-Kendall test, correlation analysis, and other methods. The results indicate that: (1) The annual and seasonal SPEI in the Ta’e Basin has been decreasing over the past 31 years, indicating a trend toward increasing drought. (2) The annual drought experienced a significant shift in 1994, while seasonal droughts exhibited significant shifts in 1995 (spring), 1992 (summer), 2009 (autumn), and 2008 (winter). (3) The spatial distribution of drought in the Ta’e Basin varies significantly, with more severe drought conditions in the north compared to the south. There is a slight increasing tendency of moist weather in Tuoli County and Tiechanggou Town. (4) Compared to temperature, precipitation has a greater impact on the SPEI, particularly spring precipitation. These findings enhance the understanding of regional drought evolution in the Ta’e Basin and provide a basis for early warning and prevention of drought in this area.

Key words: standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index, temporal and spatial characteristics, drought, Ta’e Basin

刘雨, 梅华, 范文波, 任聪哲, 王世威, 李顺顺. 基于SPEI的1992—2022年塔额盆地干旱时空变化特征[J]. 干旱区地理, 2024, 47(8): 1338-1347.

LIU Yu, MEI Hua, FAN Wenbo, REN Congzhe, WANG Shiwei, LI Shunshun. Temporal and spatial characteristics of drought in the Ta’e Basin from 1992 to 2022 based on the SPEI index[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2024, 47(8): 1338-1347.

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等级	SPEI值	类型
1	SPEI>-0.5	无旱
2	-1.0<SPEI≤-0.5	轻旱
3	-1.5<SPEI≤-1.0	中旱
4	-2.0<SPEI≤-1.5	重旱
5	SPEI≤-2.0	特旱

站点	年际	春季	夏季	秋季	冬季
托里县	0.070	-0.033	0.055	0.243	0.348^*
塔城市	-0.076	-0.043	-0.192	0.090	0.049
铁厂沟	0.026	-0.071	0.069	-0.073	0.090
161团	-0.355^*	-0.201	-0.095	0.073	-0.084
团结农场	-0.172	-0.196	-0.170	-0.055	0.038
167团	-0.395^*	-0.521^**	-0.429^*	-0.677^**	0.099
168团	-0.290	-0.289	-0.425^*	-0.446	0.049
额敏县	-0.494^**	-0.205	-0.456^**	-0.606^**	0.103
裕民县	-0.287	-0.215	-0.085	0.053	-0.348^*

指标	相关系数	最小值	最大值	平均值	变异系数
年均降水量/mm	0.555^**	18.800	34.351	25.315	0.163
春季降水量/mm	0.584^**	15.451	35.694	24.392	0.187
夏季降水量/mm	0.397^*	20.821	72.489	32.932	0.320
秋季降水量/mm	0.174	16.224	38.950	27.474	0.196
冬季降水量/mm	0.337	11.060	31.937	16.461	0.242
年均气温/℃	-0.463^**	5.762	7.862	7.051	0.072
春季气温/℃	-0.562^**	7.366	11.553	9.307	0.109
夏季气温/℃	-0.597^**	19.473	23.352	21.835	0.044
秋季气温/℃	-0.237	5.114	8.232	6.680	0.107
冬季气温/℃	0.456^**	-11.209	-7.951	-9.616	-0.085