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干旱区地理 ›› 2026, Vol. 49 ›› Issue (2): 356-368.doi: 10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2025.118 cstr: 32274.14.ALG2025118

• 气候与水文 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于遥感监测的1980—2020年三江源雪深时空变化与气候归因研究

曹晓云1,2(), 周秉荣1,2, 雷春苗2,3(), 刘致远1,2, 史飞飞1,2, 颜玉倩1,2   

  1. 1.青海省气象科学研究所,青海 西宁 810001
    2.青海省防灾减灾重点实验室,青海 西宁 810001
    3.青海省气象服务中心,青海 西宁 810001
  • 收稿日期:2025-03-06 修回日期:2025-05-26 出版日期:2026-02-25 发布日期:2026-02-27
  • 通讯作者: 雷春苗(1989-),女,硕士,副高级工程师,主要从事积雪遥感监测等方面的研究. E-mail: mmnnff22@126.com
  • 作者简介:曹晓云(1993-),女,硕士,工程师,主要从事青藏高原气候与环境等方面的研究. E-mail: xiaoyun_cao@126.com
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(U22A20556);国家自然科学基金项目(U21A2021);青海省气象局科研项目(QXTD2025-01);青海省气象局科研项目(QXTD2024-03);中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2025Q003)

Spatiotemporal changes of snow depth and climate attribution in the Three River Source Region from 1980 to 2020 based on remote sensing monitoring

CAO Xiaoyun1,2(), ZHOU Bingrong1,2, LEI Chunmiao2,3(), LIU Zhiyuan1,2, SHI Feifei1,2, YAN Yuqian1,2   

  1. 1. Institute of Qinghai Meteorological Science Research, Xining 810001, Qinghai, China
    2. Key Laboratory of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation of Qinghai Province, Xining 810001, Qinghai, China
    3. Qinghai Meteorological Service Centre, Xining 810001, Qinghai, China
  • Received:2025-03-06 Revised:2025-05-26 Published:2026-02-25 Online:2026-02-27

摘要:

三江源地区积雪变化对区域乃至全球气候、水文循环和生态系统具有重要影响。然而,基于遥感数据分区域和海拔带系统监测其长期雪深动态变化与气候归因的研究仍较为匮乏。通过遥感资料分区域和海拔带分析了1980—2020年三江源地区雪深时空变化规律,并量化了气温与降水的相对贡献。结果表明:(1) 近41 a三江源地区雪深存在明显空间差异,高海拔山脉地区平均雪深普遍大于3 cm,最大雪深普遍大于6 cm。平均雪深和最大雪深分别以0.15 cm·(10a)-1和0.49 cm·(10a)-1的速率显著减小,68.44%的平均雪深和63.83%的最大雪深呈减小趋势,显著减小面积占比分别为15.64%和7.47%。(2) 雪深及其变化存在明显的区域和海拔差异,澜沧江源区平均雪深和最大雪深最高(分别为2.41 cm和9.86 cm),且减小速率最快,分别达0.37 cm·(10a)-1和0.81 cm·(10a)-1。雪深随海拔升高而增加,平均和最大雪深垂直梯度分别为0.49 cm·km-1和1.29 cm·km-1。除3.5~4.5 km和大于6.0 km海拔带外,其余海拔带平均雪深均呈减小趋势;除3.5~4.5 km外,其余海拔带最大雪深也呈减小趋势,其中5.0~5.5 km海拔带减小最快。(3) 近41 a三江源地区显著的“暖湿化”气候是导致雪深减小的主要因素,气温为主要驱动因子,其影响存在区域与海拔差异,雪深减小与气候变暖密切相关,尤其在低海拔(<3.5 km)和高海拔(>4.5 km)区域。研究结果可为三江源地区积雪水资源优化配置、生态系统保护修复以及区域气候变化趋势预测提供科学依据。

关键词: 三江源地区, 雪深, 气候变化, 遥感监测

Abstract:

Changes in the snowpack in the Three Rivers Source Region have important implications for regional and global climate, the hydrological cycle, and ecosystems. However, systematic, long-term monitoring of snow depth dynamics and climate attribution based on remotely sensed data across regions and elevation gradients remains limited. This study analyzed the spatial and temporal patterns of snow depth change in the Three Rivers Source Region from 1980 to 2020 using remote sensing data stratified by subregions and elevation bands, and quantified the relative contributions of temperature and precipitation. The results show that (1) Snow depth in the Three Rivers Source Region exhibited pronounced spatial heterogeneity over the past 41 years, with average snow depth in high-elevation mountain ranges generally exceeding 3 cm and maximum snow depth generally exceeding 6 cm. Average and maximum snow depths decreased significantly at rates of 0.15 cm·(10a)-1 and 0.49 cm·(10a)-1, respectively. A decreasing trend was observed in average snow depth across 68.44% of the region and in maximum snow depth across 63.83% of the region, with significantly decreasing areas accounting for 15.64% and 7.47%, respectively. (2) Pronounced regional and altitudinal differences in snow depth and its changes were observed, with the highest mean and maximum snow depths (2.41 cm and 9.86 cm, respectively) and the fastest decreasing rates [0.37 cm·(10a)-1 and 0.81 cm·(10a)-1, respectively] occurring in the Lancang River source area. Snow depth increased with altitude, with vertical gradients of 0.49 cm·km-1 for mean snow depth and 1.29 cm·km-1 for maximum snow depth. Mean snow depth declined across all elevation bands except the 3.5-4.5 km and >6.0 km bands, whereas maximum snow depth declined across all elevation bands except the 3.5-4.5 km band, with the fastest decrease occurring in the 5.0-5.5 km band. (3) The pronounced “warming and humidifying” climate trend over the past 41 years is the primary driver of snow depth decline in the Three Rivers Source Region, with temperature identified as the dominant controlling factor. The influence of climate change exhibits clear regional and altitudinal differences, with snow depth reductions particularly evident in low-altitude (<3.5 km) and high-altitude (>4.5 km) areas. These findings provide a scientific basis for optimizing snow water resource allocation, ecosystem protection and restoration, and predicting regional climate change trends in the Three Rivers Source Region.

Key words: Three River Source Region, snow depth, climate change, remote sensing monitoring