中国和不丹跨境流域冰湖变化特征及驱动因素

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000－6060.2025.257

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

冰湖不仅是宝贵的淡水资源和气候变化的重要指示器，同时也是许多自然灾害的孕育者。利用Landsat遥感影像，对中国与不丹跨境流域1990、2000、2010、2020年和2023年5个时期的冰湖轮廓进行目视解译，并结合气候、冰川及地形数据，探究该区域冰湖面积与数量变化的驱动因素。结果表明：（1）1990—2023年研究区冰湖总数量从1943个增至2413个，总面积从143.25 km²增至165.71 km²。其中，洛扎曲-库鲁河流域的冰湖面积增幅最大，增加6.24 km²；桑科希河流域的冰湖数量增幅最大，增加133个。（2）面积扩张显著的冰湖多集中在0.1~0.5 km²的规模范围，而新增冰湖则以面积小于0.02 km²的冰湖为主。冰湖变化最显著的海拔范围为5100~5200 m。（3）参数最优地理探测器分析表明，年平均气温与海拔是冰湖数量增长的驱动因素，而冰川体积与海拔是冰湖面积扩张的驱动因素。研究结果阐明了气候、冰川和地形共同影响冰湖演化的机制，为跨境流域冰湖溃决灾害风险评估提供了科学依据。

关键词: 冰湖变化, 遥感, 气候变化, 跨境流域, 中国, 不丹

Abstract:

Glacial lakes are valuable freshwater resources, important indicators of climate change, and potential incubators of various natural hazards. Using Landsat remote sensing imagery, glacial lake boundaries in the transboundary basins between China and Bhutan were visually interpreted for five periods: 1990, 2000, 2010, 2020, and 2023. By integrating climatic, glaciological, and topographic data, this study investigates the driving factors underlying changes in both the area and number of glacial lakes. The results indicate the following: (1) From 1990 to 2023, the total number of glacial lakes in the study area increased from 1943 to 2413, while the total lake area expanded from 143.25 km² to 165.71 km². Among the basins, the Luozhaqu-Kulu River Basin experienced the largest increase in glacial lake area, expanding by 6.24 km², whereas the Sankoxhi River Basin exhibited the greatest increase in lake number, with 133 newly formed lakes. (2) Glacial lakes showing substantial area expansion were primarily within the size range of 0.1-0.5 km², whereas newly formed lakes were predominantly smaller than 0.02 km². The most pronounced changes in glacial lake distribution occurred at elevations of 5100-5200 m. (3) Optimal-parameter geographic detector analysis indicates that annual mean temperature and elevation are the dominant drivers of increases in glacial lake number, whereas glacier volume and elevation primarily control glacial lake area expansion. Overall, this study clarifies the combined effects of climate, glacier dynamics, and topography on glacial lake evolution and provides a scientific basis for assessing glacial lake outburst flood risks in transboundary river basins.

Key words: glacial lake changes, remote sensing, climate change, transboundary basin, China, Bhutan

陈兵, 王福涛, 王世新, 顾星光, 朱金峰. 中国和不丹跨境流域冰湖变化特征及驱动因素[J]. 干旱区地理, 2026, 49(3): 496-507.

CHEN Bing, WANG Futao, WANG Shixin, GU Xingguang, ZHU Jinfeng. Characteristics and driving factors of glacial lake changes in transboundary basins between China and Bhutan[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2026, 49(3): 496-507.

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年份	冰湖总数量变化/个	冰湖总面积变化/km²
1990—2000	272	10.41
2000—2010	28	4.12
2010—2020	124	6.64
2020—2023	46	1.29

因变量	驱动因素	解释力（q值）
冰湖面积变化量	平均海拔	0.48
	年平均气温变化量	0.51^*
	年降水变化量	0.39
	冰川物质平衡累积量	0.67^**
	冰川体积变化量	0.64^**
	冰川融水径流变化量	0.72^**
冰湖数量变化量	平均海拔	0.63^**
	年平均气温变化量	0.43
	年降水变化量	0.37
	冰川物质平衡累积量	0.74^**
	冰川体积变化量	0.74^**
	冰川融水径流变化量	0.75^**