基于测度体系模型的房地产泡沫测度研究

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为了深入了解我国房地产市场的泡沫程度，为房地产泡沫的综合防范及决策提供科学量化的依据。基于测度体系模型，采用2005-2014年的房地产相关数据，运用层次分析法（AHP）和变异系数法对我国的房地产泡沫进行了测度研究。结果表明：在研究期内我国房地产市场综合泡沫度指数从2005年的-0.025 7上升到2014年的1.213 8，总体呈现出上升的趋势。研究结果：（1）研究期内综合泡沫度指数呈上升趋势反映了我国房地产泡沫程度呈现出不断扩展的态势，其实质是市场价格越来越偏离其基本价值。（2）2008年、2010年和2012年我国房地产泡沫综合指数之所以下降，这与国家的宏观调控政策及强有力的房地产调控措施是密不可分的；2012年以后市场在资源配置中起决定性作用的功能逐渐显现，这两年国家对房地产市场采取“放开”的政策是合理和明智的。

关键词: 房地产, 泡沫分析, 测度体系模型, 变异系数, 中国

Abstract: Based on the model of measurement system,this paper selected five main indicators related to the real estate bubble,used the analytic hierarchy process(AHP) and the variation coefficient method to obtain the weights of index combination and the linear weighted method to calculate foam index and comprehensive foam index of each index. Finally,the measure research of China's real estate bubble from 2005 to 2014 was carried out. The results show as follows:(1) during the study period,comprehensive foam index in China's real estate market rose from 0.0 257 in 2005 to 1.2 138 in 2014 and showed a rising trend(except in 2008,2010 and 2012, of three years' synthetic foam index declined relativity),reflecting a expanding trend of real estate bubble,which was basically due to the deviation of market price from the basic value;(2) China's macro control policies and strong real estate regulation and control measures were responsible for the declining of real estate bubble composite index in 2008,2010 and 2012;and since 2012,the function of the market playing a decisive role in the allocation of resources gradually revealed,indicating that the country policy of opening the real estate market over the past two years was reasonable and wise. The innovation of this paper lies in:(1) adopting the multiples of expectations and standard deviation of the data as the measurement criteria,i.e.,measuring the stand or fall of the development by using the criteria extracted from the law of development of their own,rather than the traditional practice simply measured with expert experience;(2) selecting index from the price level and investment level which are closely related to the real estate bubble formation,and using the measurement system of the real estate price bubble with five quantization levels. The results coincide with the actual situation of real estate,and the conclusion proved that the country's "let go" policy on the real estate market over the past two years is reasonable and wise. The method can provide reference for the measurement of regional real estate bubble.

Key words: real estate, analysis of bubble, measurement system model, coefficient of variation, China

中图分类号:

F293.3

张文斌, 刘选, 田玉忠. 基于测度体系模型的房地产泡沫测度研究[J]. 干旱区地理, 2016, 39(4): 903-908.

ZHANG Wen-bin, LIU Xuan, TIAN Yu-zhong. Research of real estate Bubble based on the model of measurement System[J]. , 2016, 39(4): 903-908.

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