关键词: 城镇化演进, 前景预测, 发展阶段, Logistic增长模型, 中国

Abstract: To accelerate the urbanization process in China is an important development strategy proposed in the 18th CPC National Congress，so，revealing the evolution rules of China’s urbanization and predicting the development trend scientifically， has an important guiding significance for management to promote a healthy and sustainable development of urbanization in China. According to Northam thoughts that depicted by Logistic model，the course of urbanization by a S-shaped curve could be divided into three stages: the inception phase of slow development，the acceleration phase of rapid growth and the final phase of gentle development. Until now，Northam’s theory has been applied to and validated by many research fellows in studying different countries’ urbanization and commonly recognized by the academia. In this paper，based on Northam’s theory in urbanization stage division and Logistic model，China’s urbanization development prospect is predicted and the feature points of three development stages of China’s urbanization are explored by SPSS and nonlinear regress analysis. The research results show that the rate of China’s urbanization in 2020，2030，2040，and 2050 is about 57.52%，65.09%，70.53%，and 74.16%，respectively. And the peak value  of urbanization speed appeared between 2002 and 2003，with the speed of 1.068% per year and the urbanization level of about 40%，while the two extreme points of acceleration separately  in 1978 and around 2028，both with the same speed of 0.712% per year and urbanization levels of 16.90% and 63.09% respectively. As we know，the accelerated development of China’s urbanization started from the beginning of reform and opening up. It is also shown in this paper that the time of accelerated development of China’s urbanization can continue to 49.32 years that calculated from 1978，with an average speed of 0.94% per year，and then tends to gentle stage nearly 2028. Therefore，It is enlightened in the following aspects: First，there has been existed large space in China’s urbanization so that we should boost the construction of urbanization in future and keep its development correspond with the evolution law of urbanization. Second，the speed of urbanization should be moderately controlled to an appropriate value of about 1% per year. At last，it is more scientifically and reasonable to pay the same attention to the development speed and quality of China’s urbanization. The research results in this paper can provide some theoretical reference for management to formulate development plans and policies on urbanization in China.

Key words: urbanization evolution, prediction, growth stages, logistic growth model, China