关键词: 中亚地区, 油气资源, 中国, 油气进口战略

Abstract: The oil and gas resources in Central Asia are very abundant，thus，enhancing the cooperation with Central Asia in oil and gas resources has a significantly positive meaning for China. Based on the oil and gas resources data of Central Asia and China，this paper analyses the current situation and the development potential in the future of the oil and gas resources in Central Asia，as well as the characteristics and exiting problems of importing strategy of China’s oil and gas resources. Some significant results and new facts are obtained，we find that in Central Asia，the storage，production，export ratio and development potential of oil and gas resources are all great. In terms of geographical distribution，the oil and gas resources of Central Asia principally centralized in the Caspian Basin，Aral Sea Basin，South Turgai Basin，Syr Rivers Basin and Fergana Basin. In terms of country distribution，which mainly concentrate in Kazakhstan，Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. By the end of 2011，the storage of oil and gas resources in the above-mentioned 3 countries has reached 4.1 billion tons and 27.8 trillion cubic meters，respectively，accounting for 99.82% and 99.96% of the total storage in Central Asia. The total export volumes are 77.2 million tons and 52.5 billion cubic meters，respectively，accounting for 79.83% and 38.66% of the total production. The total production volumes will probably reach 147 million tons and 160-180 billion cubic meters respectively，and 120 million tons and 100-110 billion cubic meters will be used to export by 2020，moreover，the number will probably reach 200 million tons and 200-250 billion cubic meters，and 150 million tons and 160-200 billion cubic meters respectively in 2030. Among which the oil and gas exported to China from Central Asia will reach 40 million tons and 70-80 billion cubic meters respectively in 2020，and 60 million tons and 100 billion cubic meters in 2030，if so，Central Asia will become one of the most important oil and gas source for China. China’s domestic oil and gas resources production are unable to meet the demand，in addition，China has a high foreign dependence on these resources，and meanwhile，there still exist 3 problems，namely，the lack of resource diversification，the singleness of importing channels，the lack of various transport modes. In 2011，China’s oil import was 253 million tons，accounting for 91.3% of the total energy import，which resulted in an ever high foreign dependence rate of 54.95%，specifically，51.24% of the oil import came from the Middle East，and 87.7% of the total import oil was transported by sea，overall，the import of oil from overseas faced a higher risk for China. In conclusion，The influence of Central Asia’s oil and gas resources on China’s energy strategy mainly reflects in 4 aspects：（1） mitigating China’s pressure on huge oil and gas resources demand，（2） facilitating the realization of multi-importing strategy，（3） reducing the side-effect of international oil price fluctuations，（4） promoting the progress of the western development drive and the implementation of the west-east gas transmission project.

Key words: Central Asia, oil and gas resources, China, oil and gas import strategy