干旱区主要农作物生产时空格局演化及影响因素分析——以新疆地区为例

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干旱区主要农作物生产时空格局演化及影响因素分析——以新疆地区为例

Spatio-temporal pattern evolution and influencing factors of main crops production in arid region: A case of Xinjiang

干旱区主要农作物生产时空格局演化及影响因素分析——以新疆地区为例

Spatio-temporal pattern evolution and influencing factors of main crops production in arid region: A case of Xinjiang

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doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.201

干旱区地理 ›› 2025, Vol. 48 ›› Issue (3): 444-454.doi: 10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.201 cstr: 32274.14.ALG2024201

王福红¹^,²(), 夏咏²()

1.兰州财经大学农林经济管理学院，甘肃兰州 730101
2.新疆农业大学经济管理学院，新疆乌鲁木齐 830052

收稿日期:2024-03-26 修回日期:2024-04-15 出版日期:2025-03-25 发布日期:2025-03-14
通讯作者: 夏咏（1971-），男，博士，教授，主要从事农业经济管理研究. E-mail: x0991y@163.com
作者简介:王福红（1993-），男，博士，讲师，主要从事农业资源利用与农业经济研究. E-mail: wangfh@lzufe.edu.cn
基金资助:
国家社会科学基金项目(24XTJ003);新疆西甜瓜产业技术体系项目(XJARS-06);新疆维吾尔自治区高校基本科研业务费科研项目(XEDU2024J045);新疆社会经济统计与大数据应用研究中心项目(XJEDU2023J004);2024年新疆维吾尔自治区研究生教育创新计划项目(XJ2024G118)

WANG Fuhong¹^,²(), XIA Yong²()

1. School of Agriculture and Forestry Economics and Management, Lanzhou University of Finance and Economics, Lanzhou 730101, Gansu, China
2. College of Economics and Management, Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi 830052, Xinjiang, China

Received:2024-03-26 Revised:2024-04-15 Published:2025-03-25 Online:2025-03-14

摘要：

干旱区农业由于独特的资源环境约束，在区域社会经济、生态文明建设过程中具有重要的作用。以新疆为例，在县域尺度运用重心迁移模型、区位基尼系数、比较优势指数、全局莫兰指数等方法，探析2000—2020年新疆6类主要农作物生产时空格局演变特征与影响因素。结果表明：（1） 2000—2020年新疆农业种植规模不断扩大，主要农作物生产之间形成了棉蔬果“进”、粮油糖“退”的基本竞争态势。（2） 6类主要农作物的生产重心聚集于区域内中西部，且棉花、蔬菜、瓜果生产集聚程度不断增强，生产规模向少数县域聚集。（3）在全国层面新疆主要农作物生产均具有效率比较优势，棉花、糖料、瓜果生产兼具规模比较优势和综合比较优势，尤其是棉花生产的规模比较优势十分显著。在本地区层面新疆多数县域主要农作物生产不具有比较优势，且部分具有比较优势的县域也主要以规模主导优势为主。（4）政策引导、技术进步及农民收入的增加是影响区域主要农作物生产格局演变的重要因素。

关键词: 农作物, 时空格局, 比较优势, 干旱区, 新疆

Abstract:

Agriculture in arid regions plays a vital role in advancing local socio-economic development and ecological sustainability, given the unique resource and environmental constraints. This study examines Xinjiang, China, as a case study, utilizing the center of gravity transfer model, locational Gini coefficient, comparative advantage index, and global Moran’s I index at the county level to analyze the spatio-temporal evolution and influencing factors of the six major crops from 2000 to 2020. The results indicate that: (1) Xinjiang’s agricultural planting scale has been growing steadily from 2000 and 2020, and cotton, vegetables, and melons “advancing”, grain, oil, and sugar crops “restreating” constitute the basic competitive situation of the major crops. (2) The production centers for the six major crops are predominantly located in the central and western regions of Xinjiang. The concentration of cotton, vegetables, and melon production has steadily increased, with production becoming concentrated in a relatively small number of counties. (3) At the national level, all six major crops exhibit efficiency comparative advantages. Cotton, sugar, and melon production demonstrate both scale and comprehensive comparative advantages, with cotton showing a particularly pronounced scale advantage. At the regional level, most counties in Xinjiang lack comparative advantages in crop production. Counties with comparative advantages are primarily scale-dominated. (4) The evolution of Xinjiang’s crop production pattern has been influenced by several critical factors, including policy directives, technological advancements, and rising farmer incomes.

Key words: crops, spatio-temporal pattern, comparative advantage, arid region, Xinjiang

王福红, 夏咏. 干旱区主要农作物生产时空格局演化及影响因素分析——以新疆地区为例[J]. 干旱区地理, 2025, 48(3): 444-454.

WANG Fuhong, XIA Yong. Spatio-temporal pattern evolution and influencing factors of main crops production in arid region: A case of Xinjiang[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2025, 48(3): 444-454.

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年份	粮食	棉花	蔬菜	瓜果	油料	糖料
2000—2005	32.54	51.38	52.79	199.75	23.04	34.98
2005—2010	65.48	7.02	54.15	290.94	54.62	32.99
2010—2015	55.51	98.27	13.48	133.01	163.75	34.00
2015—2020	48.01	105.33	131.08	154.42	302.63	36.56
2000—2020	101.75	62.02	246.95	215.42	238.47	92.79

作物	指数	2000年	2005年	2010年	2015年	2020年
粮食	SAI	0.439	0.401	0.448	0.434	0.457
	EAI	0.191	0.225	0.243	0.318	0.219
	AAI	0.340	0.343	0.427	0.441	0.370
棉花	SAI	0.481	0.464	0.475	0.467	0.495
	EAI	0.399	0.435	0.415	-0.022	0.313
	AAI	0.521	0.482	0.485	0.306	0.477
油料	SAI	0.431	0.372	0.446	0.432	0.497
	EAI	0.004	0.197	0.220	-0.008	0.034
	AAI	0.521	0.548	0.622	0.181	0.492
糖料	SAI	0.266	0.351	0.315	0.402	0.247
	EAI	0.481	0.471	0.513	0.591	0.302
	AAI	0.430	0.490	0.460	0.492	0.343
蔬菜	SAI	0.199	0.208	0.239	0.299	0.233
	EAI	0.209	0.309	0.377	0.227	0.251
	AAI	0.258	0.279	0.318	0.269	0.302
瓜果	SAI	0.087	0.143	0.215	0.196	0.126
	EAI	0.243	-0.028	0.112	0.123	0.082
	AAI	0.175	0.225	0.317	0.275	0.217

类型	项目	农村居民人均收入	城镇化率	耕地面积	农业用水量	农业支出占财政比例	第一产业贡献率	农业机械总动力	货物周转量
规模比较优势	模型效应和因变量权数	0.3966	0.4105	0.3959	0.1936	0.4234	0.3484	0.4089	0.3820
规模比较优势	模型效应负荷量	0.3989	0.3974	0.3868	0.2089	0.4013	0.3482	0.3958	0.3951
效率比较优势	模型效应和因变量权数	0.3796	0.3508	0.4207	0.2348	0.4244	0.3144	0.4436	0.3716
效率比较优势	模型效应负荷量	0.3905	0.4083	0.4050	0.1630	0.3969	0.3800	0.4043	0.3884
综合比较优势	模型效应和因变量权数	0.4124	0.3994	0.4077	0.1337	0.4054	0.3854	0.4136	0.3934
综合比较优势	模型效应负荷量	0.4084	0.3950	0.4184	0.1433	0.3855	0.3794	0.3921	0.4051

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