基于三生空间的博斯腾湖流域生境质量时空演变及预估

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2023.009

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

生境质量是衡量区域生态环境优劣的重要指标，对干旱半干旱流域地区的生境质量进行研究具有重要的理论和现实意义。基于自然地理、遥感影像等多源数据，运用重心迁移、InVEST模型等研究方法，揭示1980—2020年博斯腾湖流域生境质量的时空演变规律，采用FLUS模型对2025年和2030年的土地利用时空演变进行模拟，阐明不同土地利用变化情景下生境质量时空演变格局。结果表明：（1） 1980—2020年，博斯腾湖流域生境质量平均值由0.546降至0.521。高质量区域面积大幅缩减，区域重心向北迁移;生境低质量区域面积增加且重心向东北方向迁移。流域总体生境退化强度有所减弱。（2）自然发展情景下，流域工业生产用地和其他生态用地面积大幅增加;生态优先发展情景下，流域水域生态用地发展趋势由减转增，并向草地生态用地和其他生态用地迁移;经济优先发展情景下，焉耆盆地与绿洲平原的城镇生活用地和工业生产用地边界得到扩张。研究结果可以为干旱半干旱流域地区土地利用规划及生境质量改善提供科学依据。

关键词: 生境质量, 时空演变, 预估, FLUS-InVEST模型, 博斯腾湖流域

Abstract:

Habitat quality is an important index for measuring the quality of the regional ecological environment. Its study in arid and semi-arid watershed areas holds both theoretical and practical importance. Based on multisource data such as natural geography and remote sensing images, this study uses research methods such as the center of gravity migration and the InVEST model. This study aims to reveal the temporal and spatial evolution law of habitat quality in the Bosten Lake Basin of Xinjiang, China, from 1980 to 2020. This study also uses the FLUS model to simulate the temporal and spatial evolution of land use in 2025 and 2030, shedding light on the corresponding habitat quality shifts under different land use change prospects. The results can be summarized as follows: (1) From 1980 to 2020, the average habitat quality in the Bosten Lake Basin decreased from 0.546 to 0.521. High-quality habitat areas were greatly reduced, with the regional center of gravity shifting northward. Conversely, low-quality habitat areas expanded and their center of gravity moved northeastward. Notably, the overall intensity of habitat degradation in the watershed weakened during this period. (2) Under the natural development scenario, industrial production land and other ecological land have increased substantially in the Bosten Lake Basin. Meanwhile, in the ecological priority development scenario, the development trend of water ecological land shifted from decline to growth and moved to grassland ecological land and other ecological lands in the Bosten Lake Basin. In the economic development priority scenario, the boundary between urban living land and industrial production land in the Yanqi Basin and oasis plain expanded. This study provides a scientific basis for land use planning and habitat quality improvement in arid and semi-arid basin areas.

Key words: habitat quality, spatiotemporal evolution, estimate, FLUS-InVEST model, Bosten Lake Basin

翟玉鑫, 张飞云, 马丽娜. 基于三生空间的博斯腾湖流域生境质量时空演变及预估[J]. 干旱区地理, 2023, 46(11): 1792-1802.

ZHAI Yuxin, ZHANG Feiyun, MA Lina. Evolution and prediction of habitat quality in the Bosten Lake Basin based on production-living-ecological space[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2023, 46(11): 1792-1802.

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驱动因子类型	驱动因子	数据来源
自然因素	高程/m	地理空间数据云
	坡度/(°)	ArcMap Slope工具
	坡向	ArcMap Slope工具
	年均降雨量/mm	中科院资源环境科学与数据中心
	年均气温/℃	中科院资源环境科学与数据中心
社会因素	与公路距离/m	ArcMap欧式距离工具
社会因素	与铁路距离/m	ArcMap欧式距离工具
经济因素	人口密度/人·km^-2	中科院资源环境科学与数据中心
经济因素	地均GDP/10⁴元·km^-2	中科院资源环境科学与数据中心

土地利用类型	邻域因子参数	土地利用类型	邻域因子参数
农业生产用地	0.2	其他生态用地	0.5
林地生态用地	0.1	城镇生活用地	0.9
草地生态用地	0.3	农村生活用地	0.9
水域生态用地	0.4	工业生产用地	0.9

威胁因子	最大胁迫距离/km	权重	空间衰减类型
农业生产用地	4	0.6	线性
其他生态用地	6	0.5	线性
城镇生活用地	11	0.8	指数
农村生活用地	8	0.8	指数
工业生产用地	12	0.9	指数

土地利用类型	生境适宜度	各土地利用类型对威胁因素的敏感性
土地利用类型	生境适宜度	农业生产用地	其他生态用地	城镇生活用地	农村生活用地	工业生产用地
农业生产用地	0.50	0.00	0.40	0.80	0.60	0.70
林地生态用地	0.90	0.70	0.50	0.90	0.80	0.80
草地生态用地	0.80	0.75	0.70	0.75	0.75	0.75
水域生态用地	0.90	0.50	0.50	0.60	0.70	0.70
其他生态用地	0.20	0.20	0.00	0.45	0.40	0.55
城镇生活用地	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
农村生活用地	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
工业生产用地	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00