近60 a新疆大气水分亏缺的时空变化特征

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2022.167

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

在全球陆地大气水分亏缺（VPD）已经增加、并将持续增强的背景下，新疆大气环境是否趋于干旱化值得探讨。利用1961—2020年地面气象观测资料，采用线性趋势分析、Mann-Kendall检验等方法，研究了新疆VPD的分布及时空演变特征。结果表明：（1）近60 a来新疆VPD整体呈现显著增加趋势，增幅为0.015 kPa·(10a)^-1。VPD在2005年发生突变，突变前为弱波动变化，突变后呈增加趋势。（2）各季节VPD均以增势为主，其中春、夏季增幅较大，冬季增幅最小。春、秋季VPD突变特征与年变化较为一致，夏季略晚（2006年出现突变）。（3）空间分布上，VPD呈现“山区低、盆地高”的鲜明格局。时空演变分析表明，全疆大范围地区（近83.65%的气象站点）VPD呈增势变化，而VPD呈下降趋势的站点多分布在天山山脉东段的北麓以及南疆盆地的北、西北缘。季节尺度上，春季VPD呈增势变化的站点数占比最高（96.15%），是新疆大气水分胁迫范围最广的时段，而冬季大气水汽含量相较稳定。

关键词: 大气水分亏缺（VPD）, 变化趋势, 突变分析, 时空演变, 新疆

Abstract:

Research has confirmed that the global terrestrial vapor pressure deficit (VPD) has already increased and will continue to increase. In this context, it is worth exploring whether the atmospheric environment in Xinjiang of China tends to be drier. The VPD series of Xinjiang from 1961 to 2020 was calculated based on meteorological observation data. Then, the distribution and spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of VPD were studied by linear trend analysis, Mann-Kendall test, etc. The results are as follows: (1) From 1982 to 2015, the average annual VPD in Xinjiang exhibited an obvious upward trend with an increased rate of 0.015 kPa·(10a)^-1. As shown in the Mann-Kendall test, an abrupt change in VPD occurred around 2005, and a weakly fluctuating change was observed before the mutation, followed by an increasing trend. (2) There were significant differences in the intensity of VPD in different seasons, but increasing trend changes, even though the rates of increase differed, which appeared in the series of mean VPD values for each season. In comparison, the magnitude of increase in VPD sequences was greater in spring and summer and the smallest in winter. The characteristics of abrupt changes in VPD sequences in spring and autumn were relatively consistent with the changes in the annual VPD value series, whereas summer was slightly later, with the abrupt change that occurred in 2006. (3) Spatially, VPD exhibited a distinct difference of “low in the mountains and high in the basins”, and there was spatial heterogeneity in its long-term evolution trend. A large area of the entire territory (approximately 83.65% of the meteorological stations) exhibited an increasing trend in VPD, whereas the stations with decreasing trends were mostly distributed in the northern foothills of the eastern part of the Tianshan Mountains and the northern/northwestern edge of the south Xinjiang Basin. On the seasonal scale, the number of meteorological stations with increasing trend changes in VPD in spring accounted for the highest proportion of the total number of stations (96.15%), indicating that this season is the most extensive period of VPD in Xinjiang. Comparatively, the relatively small variation of the VPD time series showed that the atmospheric dryness during winter in Xinjiang was relatively stable in the long term. This study reveals the evolution of VPD in Xinjiang under a significant shift from warm-wet to warm-dry and serves as a reference for reducing uncertainties in the prediction of changes in ecosystem structure and function.

Key words: vapor pressure deficit (VPD), variation trend, abrupt change analysis, spatial-temporal evolution, Xinjiang

姜萍, 胡列群, 许婷婷. 近60 a新疆大气水分亏缺的时空变化特征[J]. 干旱区地理, 2023, 46(1): 1-10.

JIANG Ping, HU Liequn, XU Tingting. Spatiotemporal variations of vapor pressure deficit in Xinjiang in recent 60 years[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2023, 46(1): 1-10.

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