中国新世纪水稻生产负外部性评估及时空演变研究

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2023.279

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

水稻生产间接价值研究集中在生态系统服务功能上，外部性尤其负外部性研究不多，对其评估有利于生态防控和农业永续发展。基于2000—2021年全国各省水稻的面板数据，运用市场价值法和空间自相关等方法，从温室气体排放、化肥污染、农药污染、地膜污染、水资源消耗和农机能源污染方面分析水稻的负外部性价值及其时空演变特征。结果表明：（1）全国水稻生产年均负外部性价值达2080.27×10⁸元，其中温室气体排放、化肥、农药、地膜污染、水资源消耗和农机能源污染占比分别为35.93%、20.71%、10.27%、9.04%、17.44%和6.61%。（2）以2012年新时代为分界点，负外部性价值总量呈先增后减趋势，体现了新时代生态防控的成效。（3）空间分布异质性强，负外部性价值主要分布在胡焕庸线以东，其中华中、华南、西南、东北和华北稻作区年均负外部性价值分别为1025.45×10⁸元、426.96×10⁸元、329.36×10⁸元、221.52×10⁸元和61.99×10⁸元；负外部性价值与地理空间存在全局正相关关系；局部自相关自东南向西北由“高-高”聚集向“低-低”聚集和不显著演变，“高-高”集聚区主要分布在华中和华南稻作区，“低-低”集聚区主要分布在华北稻作区。创新性地从研究对象和动态全局视阈评估了水稻生产负外部性，并从政府引领、市场引导和农户主导方面提出了因应策略。

关键词: 水稻生产, 负外部性, 价值评估, 时空演变, 生态防控

Abstract:

Research on the indirect value of rice production has predominantly focused on ecosystem services, often overlooking the importance of negative externalities. Addressing these externalities is crucial for ecological regulation and the promotion of sustainable agriculture. This study employed market valuation and spatial autocorrelation methods to evaluate the negative externality value of rice production in China, using panel data from 2000 to 2021 across various provinces. The analysis covered greenhouse gas emissions, pollution from fertilizers and pesticides, plastic film residue, water resource consumption, and energy pollution from agricultural machinery. The findings reveal that: (1) The mean annual value of negative externalities in national rice production was approximately 2080.27×10⁸ yuan, with the contributions from greenhouse gas emissions, fertilizers, pesticides, plastic waste, water resource consumption, and agricultural machinery energy pollution being 35.93%, 20.71%, 10.27%, 9.04%, 17.44%, and 6.61%, respectively. (2) The total value of negative externalities showed an initial increase followed by a decrease, with 2012 marking a turning point. This trend reflects the impact of new era of ecological control measures. (3) There was significant spatial heterogeneity in the distribution of negative externalities, mainly concentrated to the east of the Hu Line. The annual mean values in rice-producing regions were as follows: central China (1025.45×10⁸ yuan), south China (426.96×10⁸ yuan), southwest China (329.36×10⁸ yuan), northeast China (221.52×10⁸ yuan), and north China (61.99×10⁸ yuan). There was a positive global correlation between external cost values and geographical space, with local spatial autocorrelation evolving from high-high clustering in the southeast to low-low clustering and insignificance toward the northwest. High-high clusters were predominantly found in central and southern rice-growing areas of China, while low-low clusters were mainly in the northern region of China. This paper presents a novel approach to assessing negative externalities in rice production, offering a comprehensive and dynamic global perspective. It also proposes strategic responses involving government, market, and farmer-led initiatives.

Key words: rice production, negative externality, value evaluation, spatial-temporal evolution, ecological control

周镕基, 骆丽庄, 吴思斌. 中国新世纪水稻生产负外部性评估及时空演变研究[J]. 干旱区地理, 2024, 47(5): 830-840.

ZHOU Rongji, LUO Lizhuang, WU Sibin. Evaluation and spatial-temporal evolution of negative externalities of rice production in China in the 21^st century[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2024, 47(5): 830-840.

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年份	温室气体排放	化肥污染	农药污染	地膜污染	水资源消耗	农机能源污染
2000	0.533^***	0.572^***	0.592^***	0.299^***	0.507^***	0.144
2012	0.401^***	0.493^***	0.539^***	0.235^**	0.343^***	0.137
2021	0.350^***	0.470^***	0.551^***	0.306^***	0.286^**	0.291^***