中国乡村生态韧性时空演变特征及影响因素探究

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2023.707

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于韧性治理理论，选取2004—2021年中国30个省（市）的面板数据，从压力维度、状态维度和响应维度3个方面出发构建评价指标，客观测度与系统刻画了中国乡村生态韧性的时空演变特征，并运用空间杜宾模型实证探究了影响乡村生态韧性的因素。结果表明：（1）全国乡村生态韧性虽呈上升趋势，但整体仍处于较低水平，呈现粮食主销区>粮食主产区>粮食产销平衡区的特征。（2）乡村生态韧性得分在考察期内呈现“曲线向右运动、右尾拉长、宽度加大”的特点，且通过Dagum基尼系数分解区域差距发现，地区总体差异不严峻，并呈现持续缩小态势。（3）通过空间外溢效应分解发现，环境规制强度显著正向影响乡村生态韧性水平，且存在显著负向溢出效应；城镇化率显著负向影响乡村生态韧性水平，并存在显著正向溢出效应；农村经济增长水平及政府财政支农力度分别正向和负向影响乡村生态韧性，但结果并不显著，从间接效应来看，两者均存在显著的负向溢出效应。

关键词: 乡村生态, 韧性, 时空演变, 影响因素

Abstract:

Based on the theory of resilience governance, this paper utilizes panel data from 30 provinces (cities) in China from 2004 to 2021 to construct evaluation indices from the pressure, state, and response dimensions. It objectively measures and systematically portrays the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of China’s rural ecological resilience, employing the spatial Durbin model to empirically explore the factors influencing rural ecological resilience. The findings indicate that: (1) Although the overall ecological resilience of rural areas nationwide shows an upward trend, it remains at a low level, exhibiting the pattern of main grain marketing areas>main grain producing areas>areas with balanced grain production and marketing. (2) The rural ecological resilience scores display the characteristics of “the curve shifts rightward, the right tail extends, and the width broadens” during the study period. Decomposition of regional disparities using the Dagum Gini coefficient reveals that overall regional differences are not severe and show a persistent trend of narrowing. (3) Analysis of spatial spillover effects indicates that the intensity of environmental regulation significantly and positively influences rural ecological resilience, accompanied by a significant negative spillover effect. Conversely, the urbanization rate significantly and negatively impacts rural ecological resilience, with a significant positive spillover effect. The levels of rural economic growth and government financial support for agriculture also influence rural ecological resilience positively and negatively, respectively, though these effects are not statistically significant. Both factors exhibit significant negative spillover effects in terms of indirect influence.

Key words: rural ecology, resilience, spatial and temporal evolution, influencing factors

任洪杰, 李辉尚. 中国乡村生态韧性时空演变特征及影响因素探究[J]. 干旱区地理, 2024, 47(11): 1915-1923.

REN Hongjie, LI Huishang. Spatial and temporal evolution characteristics and influencing factors of rural ecological resilience in China[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2024, 47(11): 1915-1923.

图/表 6

表1

乡村生态韧性水平评价指标体系"

一级指标	二级指标	指标解释	属性
压力维度	单位播种面积农用化肥量/10^-4 t·m^-2	农用化肥量/农作物播种面积	-
	单位播种面积农药施用量/10^-4 t·m^-2	农药施用量/农作物播种面积	-
	单位播种面积农用塑料薄膜使用量/10^-4 t·m^-2	农用塑料薄膜使用量/农作物播种面积	-
	单位播种面积农业用水量/10 m³·m^-2	农业用水量/农作物播种面积	-
	人均农村居民生活污水排放量/m²·人^-1	农村居民年生活用水量×0.75	-
	单位播种面积农作物受灾面积占比/%	农作物受灾（旱灾、风雹灾害、低温、冷冻和雪灾）面积/农作物播种面积	-
	耕地灾害损毁面积占比/%	耕地灾害损毁面积/总耕地面积	-
	沙化土地面积占比/%	沙化土地面积/地区土地面积	-
	单位GDP SO₂排放量/10^-4 t·元^-1	SO₂排放量/地区生产总值	-
状态维度	森林覆盖率/%	森林面积/地区土地面积	+
	乡村绿化覆盖面积占比/%	乡村绿化覆盖面积/地区土地面积	+
	人均水资源总量/m³·人^-1	人均水资源总量（直接引用）	+
	自然保护区面积占比/%	自然保护区面积/地区土地面积	+
	湿地面积占比/%	湿地面积/地区土地面积	+
响应维度	水土流失治理面积占比/%	水土流失治理面积/地区土地面积	+
	除涝面积占比/%	除涝面积/地区土地面积	+
	乡村污水处理厂处理效率/10⁴ m²·d^-1	乡村污水处理厂处理效率（直接引用）	+
	乡村人均公共厕所数量/座·人^-1	乡村公共厕所数量/乡村人口数量	+
	乡村人均生活垃圾中转站数量/座·人^-1	乡村生活垃圾中转站数量/乡村人口数量	+
	乡村人均沼气池产气量/m²·人^-1	乡村沼气池产气量/乡村人口数量	+
	乡村人均农村太阳能热水器面积/m²·人^-1	乡村农村太阳能热水器面积/乡村人口数量	+
	乡村绿色建设投入占比/%	乡村绿色建设投入/乡村总建设投入	+

表1

表2

表3

图1

图2

表4

空间杜宾模型估计结果"

变量	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)
变量	主效应	空间效应	直接效应	间接效应	总效应
环境规制强度	0.083^***（8.97）	-0.144^***（-8.02）	0.062^***（5.69）	-0.236^***（-4.56）	-0.174^***（-3.01）
城镇化率	-0.001^***（-6.24）	0.002^***（5.93）	-0.001^***（-4.89）	0.004^***（4.14）	0.003^***（2.94）
农村经济增长水平	0.006（1.20）	-0.028^***（-2.69）	0.001（0.10）	-0.061^*（-1.96）	-0.061^*（-1.67）
政府财政支农力度	0.054（0.55）	-0.514^***（-3.30）	-0.067（-0.69）	-1.256^***（-3.34）	-1.323^***（-3.19）
$ρ$	0.645^***（16.31）
R-squared	0.001

表4

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变量名称	均值	标准差
环境规制强度/10⁸元·m^-1	172.950	238.736
城镇化率/%	55.098	14.254
农村经济增长水平/10⁸元·人^-1	0.791	0.527
政府财政支农力度/%	0.068	0.056

年份	全国	粮食主产区	粮食主销区	粮食产销平衡区
2004	0.093	0.093	0.117	0.077
2005	0.093	0.093	0.118	0.076
2006	0.093	0.093	0.118	0.075
2007	0.093	0.093	0.118	0.074
2008	0.093	0.093	0.118	0.074
2009	0.102	0.101	0.126	0.087
2010	0.102	0.101	0.126	0.086
2011	0.102	0.101	0.127	0.087
2012	0.103	0.102	0.128	0.087
2013	0.115	0.108	0.160	0.094
2014	0.133	0.162	0.136	0.094
2015	0.110	0.108	0.136	0.094
2016	0.111	0.109	0.136	0.095
2017	0.111	0.109	0.137	0.095
2018	0.127	0.137	0.142	0.102
2019	0.114	0.112	0.135	0.102
2020	0.114	0.113	0.135	0.102
2021	0.114	0.112	0.135	0.102
均值	0.107	0.108	0.131	0.089
增长率/%	22.581	20.430	15.385	32.468