气候变化背景下玛纳斯河流域绿洲适宜规模研究

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2019.01.13

Abstract

Abstract: The increasingly extending of the scale of the artificial oasis has strained the water resources which has made the sustainable utilization of water resources a challenge. Based on the principle of the Water and Heat Balance, the suitable scale of oasis in the Manasi River Basin under two climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and two oasis structure distribution scenarios were analyzed using the hydro-meteorological data and the corresponding remotely sensed TM images in 2000, 2005, 2010 and 2015 in the study region. The results show that the actual oasis area of Manasi River Basin in 2005, 2010 and 2015 was 109%, 114.91%, 92.39% of the actual oasis area in 2000，respectively. The suitable oasis area in 2005, 2010 and 2015 can be 111.39%, 118.8%, 115.39% of the oasis area in 2000 respectively. The oasis area of AbdEI-Ghani oasis structure in 2020 and 2030 was lower than that of the same year based on the current situation，which indicated that the oasis had a trend of overexploitation according to the development of the present situation.

Key words: Climate change, Human activities, Sustainable development, Manasi oasis

WANG Jing, LIU Hai-long, WANG Ling. The suitable oasis scale in Manas River Basin in the context of climate change[J].干旱区地理, 2019, 42(1): 113-120.

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The suitable oasis scale in Manas River Basin in the context of climate change

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