博尔塔拉河源流区径流对气候变化的响应及预测

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2022.555

Abstract

Abstract:

Glacial runoff is a major component of runoff in the northwest arid zone of China. Understanding the impact of climate change on glacial runoff is crucial, but few studies have been conducted in this field of study in the Bortala River Basin, Xinjiang, China. In this paper, we present the glacier module that was added to the SWAT model and used to simulate monthly runoff in the headwater area of the upper Bortala River Basin. We successfully simulated monthly runoff at the Wenquan hydrological station during the period 1972—2018. Further, we investigated the impact of future climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios for 2020—2050, based on CMIP5 climate data) on glacier runoff. The model was able to accurately simulate changes in the source area’s runoff process. The results showed that: For the whole simulation period, the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency was 0.82, the percent bias was -3.22%, the ratio of root mean square error to standard deviation of measured value was 0.42, and the coefficient of determination was 0.84, thus allowing the model to be rated as “excellent”. Increasing runoff trends were identified in the simulations of both future climate scenarios, with total runoff increases of 0.31×10⁸ m³·(10a)^-1 and 0.40×10⁸ m³·(10a)^-1 and increases in the percentage of glacial runoff of 4.84% and 9.38%, respectively, when compared with the historical period, in which the glacial runoff percentage was 27.61%. These increases in glacial runoff percentage are the main causes of the increases in runoff volume. Correlation analysis revealed that as the temperature increases, glacier ablation advances and accelerates, and glacier accumulation time decreases, leading to further future shrinking of glacier area. The study provides a basis for making changes to historical hydrological information, exploring future evolutionary trends, and mitigating potential climate change risks in the region.

Key words: SWAT model, climate change, CMIP5 climate scenario model, glacial runoff, Bortala River

TIAN Haowei, CHEN Fulong, LONG Aihua, LIU Jing, HAI Yang. Response and prediction of runoff to climate change in the headwaters of the Bortala River[J].Arid Land Geography, 2023, 46(9): 1432-1442.

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模拟结果	NSE	RSR	PBIAS/%
优	0.75<NSE≤1.00	0.00≤RSR≤0.50	\|PBIAS\|<10
良	0.65<NSE≤0.75	0.50<RSR≤0.60	10≤\|PBIAS\|<15
合格	0.50<NSE≤0.65	0.60<RSR≤0.70	15≤\|PBIAS\|<25
不合格	NSE≤0.50	RSR>0.70	\|PBIAS\|≥25

编号	CMIP5模式	所属国家	所属机构	水平分辨率
1	ACCESS1-0	澳大利亚	CSIRO-BOM	1.9°×1.2°
2	ACCESS1-3	澳大利亚	CSIRO-BOM	1.9°×1.2°
3	NRM-CM5	法国	CNRM-CERFACS	1.4°×1.4°
4	HadGEM2-CC	英国	MOHC	1.9°×1.2°
5	HadGEM2-ES	英国	MOHC	1.9°×1.2°
6	MIROC5	日本	MIROC	1.4°×1.4°
7	MRI-CGCM3	日本	MRI	1.1°×1.1°
8	BCC-CSM1-1-M	中国	NCC	1.1°×1.1°

参数模块	参数	物理意义	范围	参数最优值
径流	ALPHA_BF.gw	基流α因子/d	[0, 1]	0.0084
	GW_DELAY.gw	地下水的时间延迟/d	[0, 500]	120.00
	GWQMIN.gw	发生回归流所需的浅水层的水位阈值/mm	[0, 5000]	100.00
	REVAPMN.gw	渗入深水层所需的含水层的水位阈值/mm	[0, 1000]	1000.00
	CH_K2.rte	主河道冲积物的有效渗透系数/mm·h^-1	[0, 500]	30.00
	ESCO.hru	土壤蒸发补偿因子	[0, 1]	0.70
融雪	SFTMP.bsn	降雪气温/℃	[-5, 5]	1.00
	SMTMP.bsn	融雪气温/℃	[-5, 5]	0.50
	SMFMX.bsn	6月21日的融雪因子/mm·℃^-1·d^-1	[0, 10]	6.50
	SMFMN.bsn	12月21日的融雪因子/mm·℃^-1·d^-1	[0, 10]	1.50
	TIMP.bsn	积雪温度滞后因子	[0.01, 1.00]	1.00
冰川	Bmelt6	6月21日的融冰因子/mm·℃^-1·d^-1	[1.4, 16.0]	3.50
	Bmelt12	12月21日的融冰因子/mm·℃^-1·d^-1	[1.4, 16.0]	0.50
	gmlt_tmp	融冰温度阈值/℃	[-5, 5]	1.44

水文站	时段	NSE	RSR	PBIAS/%	R²
温泉水文站	校准期（1972年1月—1996年12月）	0.81	0.44	0.26	0.82
	验证期（1997年1月—2018年12月）	0.83	0.41	-6.84	0.86
	全时段（1972年1月—2018年12月）	0.82	0.42	-3.22	0.84

历史	春季			夏季
历史	降水	气温	径流	降水	气温	径流
降水量	1.000	0.541^**	0.013	1.000	-0.143	0.178^*
气温	0.541^**	1.000	-0.237^**	-0.143	1.000	0.503^**
径流	0.013	-0.237	1.000	0.178^*	0.503^**	1.000
历史	秋季			冬季
历史	降水	气温	径流	降水	气温	径流
降水量	1.000	0.360^**	0.178^*	1.000	0.253^**	0.017
气温	0.360^**	1.000	-0.173^*	0.253^**	1.000	-0.060
径流	0.178^*	-0.173	1.000	0.017	-0.060	1.000

Response and prediction of runoff to climate change in the headwaters of the Bortala River

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RCP4.5	春季			夏季
RCP4.5	降水	气温	径流	降水	气温	径流
降水	1.000	0.704^**	0.321^**	1.000	-0.004	-0.120
气温	0.704^**	1.000	0.486^**	-0.004	1.000	0.733^**
径流	0.321^**	0.486^**	1.000	-0.120	0.733^**	1.000
RCP4.5	秋季			冬季
RCP4.5	降水	气温	径流	降水	气温	径流
降水	1.000	0.004	0.103	1.000	0.124	-0.062
气温	0.004	1.000	0.028	0.124	1.000	0.042
径流	0.103	0.028	1.000	-0.062	0.042	1.000

RCP8.5	春季			夏季
RCP8.5	降水	气温	径流	降水	气温	径流
降水	1.000	0.641^**	0.236^**	1.000	-0.395^**	-0.155
气温	0.641^**	1.000	0.540^**	-0.395^**	1.000	0.870^**
径流	0.236^**	0.540^**	1.000	-0.155	0.870^**	1.000
RCP8.5	秋季			冬季
RCP8.5	降水	气温	径流	降水	气温	径流
降水	1.000	-0.135	-0.045	1.000	0.261^*	0.142
气温	-0.135	1.000	0.203	0.261^*	1.000	0.113
径流	-0.045	0.203	1.000	0.142	0.113	1.000

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