北京城区旅游气候变化及风险分析

Abstract

Abstract: The impact of climate change on tourism climate comfort is a major problem for the sustainable development of tourism. Based on climate factors including temperature, humidity, precipitation, wind speed, and sunshine, this paper built the tourism climate index (TCI) to describe tourism climate comfort in Beijing, and then conducted a risk analysis of the tourism climate change (only considering precipitation factor) by using the information diffusion model (IDM) to evaluate the impact of precipitation at different levels on tourism climate comfort. Results show as follows:(1) the multi-climate-factor based index TCI can effectively reflect the response of tourism climate comfort to climate change, and the tourism climate risk assessment model based on IDM can effectively analyze the influence of a single factor on tourism climate comfort.(2) From 1951 to 2014, the tourism climate comfort in Beijing continued to rise and two comfortable times in a year of tourism activities extended along with the continuous increasing TCI, of which the trend line increased from level Ⅲ (65) in 1951 to level Ⅱ (73) in 2014, with an average increase rate of 1.17·(10 a)^-1. The continuous improvement of tourism climate comfort has become the main factor to accelerate tourism development.(3) Under the risk of low precipitation probability, TCI in Beijing ranged from 45 to 71, which indicated Beijing was still in level Ⅱ to level Ⅲ that could develop tourism activities. And with the increase of TCI, the risk of low precipitation probability to tourism climate comfort has gradually decreased. In this paper, only average monthly precipitation was considered to the influence on tourism climate. What's more, the precipitation concentration ratio, especially a multi-factor based analysis are very necessary for exactly assessing tourism climate comfort and making effective countermeasures to climate change.

Key words: climate change, tourism climate, information diffusion model(IDM), risk, Beijing

CLC Number:

P343.6

XIANG Liu, ZHANG Yu-hu, CHEN Qiu-hua. Assessment for tourism climate and its risk for urban area of Beijing[J]., 2016, 39(3): 654-661.

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Assessment for tourism climate and its risk for urban area of Beijing

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