西藏青稞主要种植区干旱时空分布及致灾危险性评估

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2022.535

Abstract

Abstract:

In Tibet, highland barley is mostly cultivated on the primary crop-producing area in Tibet, China. However, drought resulting from climate change and intense human activities agriculture is considerably affecting agriculture in this area. The daily meteorological drought comprehensive index (MCI) of the growth period of 25 meteorological stations in the main growing areas of highland barley in Tibet, was calculated according to the national standard of “Meteorological Drought Grade” (GB/T 20481-2017), and the spatial and temporal variation characteristics of meteorological drought and the distribution of disaster risk were analyzed in the main growing areas of highland barley in Tibet. The results revealed that: (1) In the last 40 years, the air temperature in the main growing areas of highland barley in Tibet increased significantly (P<0.01), whereas the precipitation did not increase significantly. The seasonal variation trend of temperature and precipitation differed considerably. (2) The coverage and duration of drought exhibited a decreasing trend of various degrees, and the drought intensity (except sowing-tillering stage) enhanced. Drought was the most severe at the tillering-heading stage and in 1981—1990, whereas drought was the least severe in 2001—2010. (3) The high-value areas of drought frequency in various growth stages were in eastern Xigaze, southern Lhasa, southwestern Qamdo, and central Shannan, whereas low-value areas were in central Nyingchi. (4) The patterns of empirical orthogonal function analysis in various growth stages were opposite in central and central-western regions and consistent in the whole region, and opposite in southwest and northeast regions. (5) The drought disaster risk grades of each growth period were higher in the west and lower in the east. The disaster risk grades of the tillering-heading stage were generally higher, that of the heading-maturity stage was lower, and that of the sowing-tillering stage was the lowest.

Key words: MCI index, hazard risk, drought intensity, barley, Tibet

SHI Jiqing, GAN Chenlong, ZHOU Kanshe, YUAN Lei, ZHANG Dongdong. Spatiotemporal distribution of drought and hazard assessment of highland barley in Tibet[J].Arid Land Geography, 2023, 46(7): 1098-1110.

Figures/Tables 12

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References 29

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站点	播种-分蘖期	分蘖-抽穗期	抽穗-成熟期	播种-成熟期
拉孜	5月中旬—6月上旬	6月上旬—7月中旬	7月中旬—9月上旬	5月中旬—9月上旬
定日、聂拉木	4月中旬—6月下旬	6月下旬—7月下旬	7月下旬—9月中旬	4月中旬—9月中旬
拉萨、墨竹工卡、尼木	4月中旬—5月中旬	5月中旬—6月中旬	6月中旬—8月上旬	4月中旬—8月上旬
日喀则、江孜、南木林	4月下旬—5月中旬	5月中旬—6月下旬	6月下旬—8月中旬	4月下旬—8月中旬
林芝、米林、波密、察隅	3月中旬—4月下旬	4月下旬—6月中旬	6月中旬—7月下旬	3月中旬—7月下旬
加查、贡嘎、隆子、错那、浪卡子	4月上旬—5月中旬	5月中旬—6月下旬	6月下旬—8月上旬	4月上旬—8月上旬
丁青、昌都、左贡、芒康、洛隆、类乌齐、八宿	4月上旬—5月中旬	5月中旬—7月上旬	7月上旬—8月中旬	4月上旬—8月中旬

生育期	EOF	方差贡献率/%	累计方差贡献率/%	生育期	EOF	方差贡献率/%	累计方差贡献率/%
播种-分蘖期	第一载荷量	23.1	23.1	分蘖-抽穗期	第一载荷量	37.9	37.9
	第二载荷量	18.8	41.9		第二载荷量	13.9	51.8
	第三载荷量	13.6	55.8		第三载荷量	8.1	59.9
	第四载荷量	8.6	64.4		第四载荷量	6.6	66.5
	第五载荷量	6.8	71.2		第五载荷量	5.6	72.1
抽穗-成熟期	第一载荷量	61.5	61.5	全生育期	第一载荷量	35.8	35.8
	第二载荷量	7.2	68.7		第二载荷量	24.4	60.2
	第三载荷量	5.4	74.1		第三载荷量	7.3	67.4
	第四载荷量	4.8	78.9		第四载荷量	7.1	74.6
	第五载荷量	4.6	83.5		第五载荷量	4.7	79.3

Spatiotemporal distribution of drought and hazard assessment of highland barley in Tibet

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