青海湖流域近25 a水碳变量时空变化与影响因素

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2025.696

Abstract

Abstract:

The Qinghai-Xizang Plateau is an area sensitive to global climate change, and the Qinghai Lake Basin, along its northeastern edge, serves as a typical alpine inland river basin. Studying the water-carbon coupling mechanism is of great significance for revealing the laws of carbon-water interaction in alpine ecosystems and supporting the coordinated management of regional water resources and carbon sinks. Based on multi-source remote sensing and meteorological data from 2000 to 2024, and using net primary productivity (NPP), evapotranspiration (ET) and water use efficiency (WUE) as core variables, this study systematically analyzes their spatio-temporal change characteristics. It integrates random forest and XGBoost machine learning methods to analyze the driving mechanisms from two dimensions: Space (altitude, vegetation type, meteorological factors, leaf area index) and time (meteorological factors, leaf area index, water area). The results show that: (1) NPP and ET in the Qinghai Lake Basin have shown a significant upward trend over the past 25 years (growth rates of 2.511 g C·m^-2 a^-1 and 4.470 mm·a^-1, respectively), WUE has shown a nonlinear change pattern, first declining and then rising, with 2017 as a turning point. (2) Spatially, NPP and WUE showed a pattern of “high in the southeast and low in the northwest”, whereas ET showed one of “high in the north and low in the south”, demonstrating significant spatial heterogeneity. (3) On a spatial scale, altitude significantly influences the spatial variabilities of NPP and WUE but has no significant effect on ET. Vegetation type dominates the spatial differences in NPP and WUE, with marshes, cultivated vegetation, grassland, and scrubland showing higher carbon sequestration capacity and water use efficiency. Among meteorological factors, temperature and leaf area index show a significant positive effect on NPP, whereas precipitation and temperature jointly regulate ET. WUE shows a significant negative correlation with precipitation. (4) On a temporal scale, LAI is a core driver of NPP changes (RF importance 0.467, XGBoost 0.337). ET was jointly regulated by leaf area index and precipitation. WUE is more sensitive to water conditions (precipitation, water area), and the model’s interpretability is significantly higher than that of single water and carbon variables. This study reveals the multi-scale driving laws of water-carbon coupling in alpine inland river basins, thus providing a scientific basis for ecological protection and comprehensive management of water-carbon resources in the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau.

Key words: Qinghai Lake Basin, water-carbon coupling, net primary productivity, evapotranspiration, water use efficiency

YAN Pengxu, ZHANG Lihua, ZENG Fanxing, BAI Xiaohui, YE Yang, CAO Yijie. Spatiotemporal changes and influencing factors of water and carbon variables in the Qinghai Lake Basin over the past 25 years[J].Arid Land Geography, 2026, 49(8): 1572-1586.

Figures/Tables 11

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指标	针叶林	灌丛	荒漠	草原	草甸	沼泽	高山植被	栽培植被	其他
面积/km²	28.00	1707.00	883.00	4623.00	16612.00	51.00	914.00	239.00	63.00
占比/％	0.11	6.80	3.52	18.40	66.13	0.20	3.64	0.95	0.25

数据	单位	空间分辨率	数据来源	年份
净初级生产力（NPP）	g C·m^-2	500 m	MOD17A3	2000—2024
蒸散发（ET）	mm	500 m	MOD16A3	2000—2024
海拔高度	m	30 m	ASTER GDEM V3	-
植被类型	-	1 km	中国1:1000000 植被数据集	2023
气温	℃	1 km	ERA5-Land再分析数据集	2000—2024
降水量	mm	1 km	ERA5-Land 再分析数据集	2000—2024
太阳辐射	MJ·m^-2	1 km	ERA5-Land 再分析数据集	2000—2024
风速	m·s^-1	0.01°	中国0.01°分辨率逐年风速栅格数据	2000—2024
叶面积指数（LAI）	-	500 m	MOD15A2	2000—2024

Spatiotemporal changes and influencing factors of water and carbon variables in the Qinghai Lake Basin over the past 25 years

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