新疆县域耕地利用生态效率时空演变及驱动因素

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2025.343

Abstract

Abstract:

An understanding of the evolution of ecological efficiency in cultivated land use is a fundamental resource for the agricultural development of oases in arid regions and is important for regional socio-economic development and ecological conservation. Using cultivated land use data from 85 counties in Xinjiang, China, from 2014 to 2021, this study employed the Super-SBM model, Moran’s I, and fixed-effects model to analyze the spatiotemporal evolution patterns and driving factors of ecological efficiency in cultivated land use in Xinjiang. The findings indicate that (1) The ecological efficiency of cultivated land use in Xinjiang was relatively low from 2014 to 2021 and showed a fluctuating upward trend, increasing by 17.02%. (2) The spatial distribution of high-high agglomeration areas in the ecological efficiency of cultivated land use in Xinjiang transitioned from a dual-core agglomeration to scattered distribution, while low-low agglomeration areas exhibited a pattern of initial agglomeration, followed by dispersion, and then re-agglomeration. (3) The rate of water and soil coordination, agricultural specialized services, per capita agricultural output value, mechanization level, and plastic film coverage rate are important factors that influence changes in the ecological efficiency of cultivated land use in Xinjiang. In the future, to enhance the ecological efficiency of cultivated land use in various counties of Xinjiang, attention should be paid to the coordination among various factors such as water resources, production technology, and economic level, which promotes the increase of cultivated land productivity while it reduced the negative externalities of cultivated land use.

Key words: ecological efficiency of cultivated land use, spatiotemporal evolution, driving factors, Super-SBM model, Xinjiang

WANG Ziyang, XIA Yong, WANG Fuhong, DING Ning, LYU Yi, SU Zechen. Spatiotemporal evolution and driving factors of ecological efficiency of cultivated land use in counties of Xinjiang[J].Arid Land Geography, 2026, 49(7): 1385-1394.

Figures/Tables 7

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指标类别	指标名称	指标释义
投入指标	土地投入	耕地面积/hm²
	劳动力投入	从事农业人员/人
	农机投入	农业机械总动力/kW
	化肥投入	化肥施用折纯量/t
期望产出指标	农业产值	农业总产值/10⁴元
期望产出指标	粮食产量	粮食总产量/t
非期望产出指标	碳排放	耕地利用碳排放量/t

变量类型	解释变量	指标释义
自然资源禀赋	水土协调比例（X₁）	水域面积与耕地面积之比
农业科技创新	农业专业化服务（X₂）	专业化服务产值与农林牧渔业总产值之比
农业科技创新	机械化水平（X₃）	机械总动力与农作物播种面积之比/kW·hm^-2
农业基础设施	地膜覆盖率（X₄）	地膜覆盖面积与农作物播种面积之比
农业种植收益	人均农业产值（X₅）	农业总产值与乡村人口之比/10⁴元·人^-1

年份	全局Moran’s I	Z值
2014	0.076^**	2.276
2015	0.174^***	4.831
2016	0.122^***	3.484
2017	0.171^***	4.756
2018	0.013	0.679
2019	0.079^**	2.374
2020	0.100^**	2.942
2021	0.151^***	4.195

变量名称	系数	标准误差	T值	P值
水土协调比例	0.295	0.157	1.880	0.061
农业专业化服务	0.048	0.022	2.160	0.031
机械化水平	-0.129	0.062	-2.080	0.038
地膜覆盖率	-0.186	0.094	-1.970	0.049
人均农业产值	0.033	0.010	3.380	0.001
常数项	0.759	0.134	5.640	0.000
地区固定效应	控制
年份固定效应	控制
R²	0.116

Spatiotemporal evolution and driving factors of ecological efficiency of cultivated land use in counties of Xinjiang

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