1958—2023年内蒙古植被干旱时空特征与驱动因素分析

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2025.499

Abstract

Abstract:

Drought is among the most prevalent extreme climate events in Inner Mongolia, China, resulting in diminished crop yields and the degradation of grasslands. This phenomenon poses a significant threat to the stability of the regional ecological environment and the safety of agricultural production. To better understand the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and driving mechanisms of drought, this study analyzed the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics, changing trends, and driving factors of vegetation drought in Inner Mongolia from 1958 to 2023 based on the crop water stress index (CWSI). Additionally, the time-lag effect of CWSI on the main driving factors was further explored. The results indicate that: (1) The distribution characteristics of the multi-year average CWSI in Inner Mongolia exhibit evident spatial heterogeneity, with higher values observed in the southwest and lower values in the northeast. Furthermore, the proportion of areas demonstrating a monotonically increasing CWSI trend from 1958 to 2023 reached 70.5%, and the abrupt breakpoints primarily occurred around 2000, with 1998 being the most significant. (2) Precipitation and temperature are the primary driving factors of vegetation drought in Inner Mongolia. The q values of the interaction between precipitation and temperature are nearly all above 0.8, indicating a highly significant relationship between the two factor. (3) The precipitation response of the CWSI in the entire region exhibits an average lag of 1.61 months, whereas the response to temperature is weaker but with a shorter lag time, averaging 1.33 months. This study quantitatively analyzed the time-lag effect of vegetation drought on climatic factors, thereby providing a theoretical foundation and technical support for drought monitoring in Inner Mongolia.

Key words: crop water shortage index (CWSI), geographic detector, spatiotemporal changes, driving factors, time-delay effect, Inner Mongolia

CHEN Xianlin, YAN Zhiyuan, LIU Quanming, ZHANG Shengwei. Spatiotemporal characteristics and driving factors of vegetation drought in Inner Mongolia from 1958 to 2023[J].Arid Land Geography, 2026, 49(7): 1323-1335.

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等级	CWSI	类型
1	0.0~0.6	无旱
2	0.6~0.7	轻旱
3	0.7~0.8	中旱
4	0.8~0.9	重旱
5	0.9~1.0	特旱

趋势类型	含义
单调型增加	持续上升，突变次数≤1
单调型减少	持续下降，突变次数≤1
中断型增加	整体上升，期间出现1次显著下降突变
中断型减少	整体下降，期间出现1次显著上升突变
由增到减	趋势由上升转为下降，出现1次显著突变
由减到增	趋势由下降转为上升，出现1次显著突变
复杂多段突变	检测到2次及以上突变，表现为增减交替或阶段性调整

判断依据	类型
$q\left(X_{1} \cap X_{2}\right)＜\min \left[q\left(X_{1}\right), q\left(X_{2}\right)\right]$	非线性减弱
$\min \left[q\left(X_{1}\right), q\left(X_{2}\right)\right]＜q\left(X_{1} \cap X_{2}\right)＜\max \left[q\left(X_{1}\right), q\left(X_{2}\right)\right]$	单因子非线性减弱
$q\left(X_{1} \cap X_{2}\right)＜\max \left[q\left(X_{1}\right), q\left(X_{2}\right)\right]$	双因子增强
$q\left(X_{1} \cap X_{2}\right)=q\left(X_{1}\right)+q\left(X_{2}\right)$	独立
$q\left(X_{1} \cap X_{2}\right)＞q\left(X_{1}\right)+q\left(X_{2}\right)$	非线性增强

因子	分类方法	分类数量	因子	分类方法	分类数量
GDP	分位数	8	坡度（SL）	标准差	8
人口密度（POP）	分位数	8	降水（PRE）	分位数	8
放牧强度（LHGI）	分位数	8	气温（TEM）	分位数	8
土地利用类型（LUCC）	自然断点	8	粉土比例（Silt）	分位数	8
归一化植被指数（NDVI）	标准差	7	砂土比例（Sand）	标准差	6
海拔（DEM）	几何间断	6	黏土比例（Clay）	标准差	8
坡向（AS）	几何间断	5

Spatiotemporal characteristics and driving factors of vegetation drought in Inner Mongolia from 1958 to 2023

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