中国农业新质生产力发展水平的测度、时空演进与障碍因素分析

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2025.518

Abstract

Abstract:

The index system of agricultural new quality productivity is constructed based on Marx’s theory of the three factors of productivity. Employing panel data from 30 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) in China from 2011 to 2022, the entropy method, Dagum Gini coefficient, Moran’s I, Markov chain model, and obstacle degree model are used to measure the level of agricultural new quality productivity in China and analyze its spatial and temporal evolution characteristics. The results reveal that (1) During the study period, the development level of China’s agricultural new quality productivity increases steadily, but an imbalance persists, with a spatial distribution pattern characterized by “high in the east and low in the west, high in the south and low in the north”, and it spreads from the east to the central and western regions. (2) The level gap of agricultural new quality productivity in China is expanding, and in order of significance, the overall differences arise from interregional differences, intraregional differences, and ultravariable density. The interregional differences mainly originate from the east-west and east-central regions, while the intraregional differences primarily occur within the eastern regions. (3) There is a significant positive spatial correlation in the level of agricultural new quality productivity nationwide, and the local spatial autocorrelation types are mainly “high-high” and “low-low” agglomeration. The evolution trend exhibits “club convergence” and the “Matthew effect”, and there is a significant spatial spillover effect in the agricultural new quality productivity in the provinces at a high level. (4) The analysis of obstacle factors reveals that new quality labor materials and new quality labor objects are the main factors restricting the development of agricultural new quality productivity. The new quality industry, represented by the proportion of Taobao villages and the penetration rate of rural Internet; scientific and technological innovation, represented by the number of agricultural patents and the standardization level of agricultural products; and innovative laborers, represented by farmers’ entrepreneurial activity and the proportion of agricultural scientific and technological activities, are the key factors constraining the promotion of agricultural new quality productivity.

Key words: agricultural new quality productivity, level measurement, spatiotemporal evolution, regional differences, innovation drive

YANG An. Measurement, spatiotemporal evolution and obstacle factors analysis of the development level of agricultural new quality productivity in China[J].Arid Land Geography, 2026, 49(6): 1226-1237.

Figures/Tables 11

Fig. 1

Tab. 1

Evaluation index system for the development level of agricultural new quality productivity"

准则层	一级指标	二级指标（权重/属性）	计算方法	单位
新质劳动者	劳动者技能	受教育程度X₁（0.854%/+）^[14]	农村劳动力人均受教育年限	a
	劳动者技能	农村人力资本X₂（2.346%/+）^[15]	农村实际劳动力人均人力资本	元
	劳动生产率	人均农业生产总值X₃（2.721%/+）^[16]	农林牧渔业总产值/第一产业从业人员人数	元·人^-1
	劳动生产率	农村居民人均收入X₄（2.908%/+）^[17]	农村居民人均可支配收入	元
	创新型劳动者	农业科技活动人员比重X₅（4.983%/+）^[18]	农业科技活动人员数量/第一产业从业人员人数	%
	创新型劳动者	农户创业活跃度X₆（10.254%/+）^[19]	（农村私营企业就业人数+个体就业人数）/农村人口总数	%
新质劳动对象	新质产业	农业产业结构X₇（3.375%/+）^[20]	农林牧渔服务业总产值/农林牧渔业总产值	%
		农村互联网普及率X₈（5.186%/+）^[21]	农村互联网宽带接入用户/该地区农村人口数	户·人^-1
		淘宝村数量占比X₉（20.461%/+）^[22]	省份的淘宝村数量/省份的行政村总数	%
		农村网络支付数量及规模X₁₀（1.714%/+）^[23]	北京大学普惠金融县域指数
	绿色环保	森林覆盖率X₁₁（3.275%/+）^[18]	森林面积/土地总面积	%
		单位面积化肥使用量X₁₂（0.967%/-）^[18]	化肥使用量/农作物总播种面积	kg·hm^-2
		单位面积农药使用量X₁₃（0.386%/-）^[18]	农药使用量/农作物总播种面积	kg·hm^-2
		农业碳排放强度X₁₄（0.904%/-）^[13]	农业碳排放量总和/农林牧渔业总产值	kg·元^-1
新质劳动资料	物质资料	农业机械化水平X₁₅（2.577%/+）^[24]	农业机械总动力/第一产业从业人员人数	kW·人^-1
		农业生产电气化程度X₁₆（3.856%/+）^[25]	农林牧渔业增加值/农村用电量	元·kW^-1
		农村移动电话普及率X₁₇（1.158%/+）^[21]	每百户农村住户移动电话拥有量	部·人^-1
		农村物流基础设施X₁₈（3.482%/+）^[22]	单位行政村农村投递线路长度	km
	科技创新	涉农专利数量X₁₉（13.372%/+）^[26]	农林牧渔业专利总和/第一产业从业人员人数	件·人^-1
		农业研发投入强度X₂₀（2.136%/+）^[22]	农业研发经费内部支出/GDP	%
		农产品标准化水平X₂₁（11.177%/+）^[25]	绿色食品获证产品数量/耕地面积	个·hm^-2
		财政投入力度X₂₂（1.908%/+）^[27]	农林水事务支出/财政支出	%

Tab. 1

Fig. 2

Fig. 3

Fig. 4

Tab. 2

Fig. 5

Tab. 3

Tab. 4

Tab. 5

Tab. 6

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年份	2011年	2012年	2013年	2014年	2015年	2016年	2017年	2018年	2019年	2020年	2021年	2022年
全局Moran’s I	0.405^***	0.388^***	0.389^***	0.404^***	0.423^***	0.478^***	0.498^***	0.503^***	0.506^***	0.541^***	0.531^***	0.565^***
Z	3.586	3.445	3.458	3.577	3.728	4.183	4.347	4.385	4.409	4.690	4.615	4.890

t/t+1	低	中低	中高	高
低	0.7253	0.2747	0.0000	0.0000
中低	0.0116	0.6860	0.3023	0.0000
中高	0.0000	0.0241	0.7590	0.2169
高	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	1.0000

领域类型	t/t+1	低	中低	中高	高
低	低	0.8382	0.1618	0.0000	0.0000
	中低	0.0769	0.8462	0.0769	0.0000
	中高	-	-	-	-
	高	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	1.0000
中低	低	0.3810	0.6190	0.0000	0.0000
	中低	0.0000	0.7692	0.2308	0.0000
	中高	0.0000	0.0000	0.8000	0.2000
	高	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	1.0000
中高	低	0.5000	0.5000	0.0000	0.0000
	中低	0.0000	0.3684	0.6316	0.0000
	中高	0.0000	0.0385	0.8269	0.1346
	高	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	1.0000
高	低	-	-	-	-
	中低	0.0000	0.5000	0.5000	0.0000
	中高	0.0000	0.0000	0.5714	0.4286
	高	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	1.0000

准则层	2011年	2012年	2013年	2014年	2015年	2016年	2017年	2018年	2019年	2020年	2021年	2022年
新质劳动者	0.243	0.241	0.239	0.236	0.236	0.233	0.231	0.231	0.228	0.224	0.222	0.219
新质劳动对象	0.362	0.365	0.366	0.367	0.365	0.365	0.362	0.359	0.357	0.356	0.350	0.344
新质劳动资料	0.394	0.394	0.395	0.397	0.400	0.402	0.406	0.410	0.414	0.420	0.428	0.437

障碍因子	2011年	2012年	2013年	2014年	2015年	2016年	2017年	2018年	2019年	2020年	2021年	2022年
第一障碍因子	X₉（0.233）	X₉（0.235）	X₉（0.237）	X₉（0.238）	X₉（0.241）	X₉（0.240）	X₉（0.241）	X₉（0.242）	X₉（0.243）	X₉（0.242）	X₉（0.237）	X₉（0.235）
第二障碍因子	X₁₉（0.150）	X₁₉（0.151）	X₁₉（0.151）	X₁₉（0.152）	X₁₉（0.153）	X₁₉（0.153）	X₁₉（0.153）	X₁₉（0.154）	X₁₉（0.158）	X₁₉（0.156）	X₁₉（0.155）	X₁₉（0.164）
第三障碍因子	X₂₁（0.125）	X₂₁（0.127）	X₂₁（0.128）	X₂₁（0.129）	X₂₁（0.131）	X₂₁（0.131）	X₂₁（0.133）	X₂₁（0.134）	X₂₁（0.133）	X₂₁（0.138）	X₂₁（0.139）	X₂₁（0.139）
第四障碍因子	X₆（0.111）	X₆（0.112）	X₆（0.112）	X₆（0.112）	X₆（0.113）	X₆（0.112）	X₆（0.111）	X₆（0.112）	X₆（0.113）	X₆（0.115）	X₆（0.118）	X₆（0.120）
第五障碍因子	X₈（0.055）	X₈（0.054）	X₈（0.054）	X₈（0.054）	X₈（0.053）	X₈（0.051）	X₅（0.050）	X₅（0.051）	X₅（0.049）	X₅（0.046）	X₅（0.045）	X₅（0.044）

Measurement, spatiotemporal evolution and obstacle factors analysis of the development level of agricultural new quality productivity in China

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