半干旱区生态风险时空演变及其影响因素的地理探测——以宁夏盐池县为例

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2022.033

Abstract

Abstract:

As well as being one of the most sensitive regions to global changes induced by human activities, semiarid regions are characterized by drought and low rainfall, sparse vegetation, and extremely fragile ecological environments. It is therefore of great theoretical and practical significance to optimize the landscape pattern of semiarid regions, prevent and manage ecological risks, and promote sustainable and high-quality development via in-depth exploration of the changing laws of landscape patterns in semiarid regions, and clarifying the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics and influencing factors of ecological risks. This study considers Yanchi County in Ningxia, China based on the land use data taken from 2000 to 2020, and uses the landscape pattern index to construct an ecological risk assessment model. Comprehensive research is undertaken on the temporal and spatial evolution of ecological risks and the factors that influence such risks. The results show that: (1) From 2000 to 2020, the area of cultivated land and unused land in Yanchi County decreased; all other land use types showed an increase over this time period. The construction land was seen to have increased the fastest, with an average annual growth rate of 6.90%. The overall land use data shows a rapid expansion in the proportion of construction land, a reduction in the area of cultivated land, an increase in forest and grassland, and an increase in the land area covered by water. (2) From 2000 to 2020, affected by the disturbances to the natural environment and human activities, the number of landscape patches, patch density, landscape shape index and Shannon’s diversity index in Yanchi County increased; in the same period, the largest patch index and spread index decreased, indicating that the landscape became increasingly fragmented and an increase in the complexity and decentralization of land use occurred. (3) From 2000 to 2020, the ecological risk index of Yanchi County decreased from 0.1465 to 0.1312, in which the proportion of higher, high and moderate risk areas decreased by 5.25%, 24.21% and 5.44%, respectively, while the proportion of lower and low risk areas increased by 14.11% and 20.79%, respectively. The distribution pattern of the ecological risk index is high in the north and low in the south. (4) With increasing social demand and the intensification of human activities, the influence of natural factors on the spatial pattern of ecological risks has gradually weakened, whereas the influence of social and economic factors has continued to increase.

Key words: landscape pattern, ecological risk, temporal and spatial evolution, geographic detector, semi-arid regions

CHENG Jing,WANG Peng,CHEN Hongxiang,HAN Yonggui. Geographical exploration of the spatial and temporal evolution of ecological risk and its influencing factors in semi-arid regions: A case of Yanchi County in Ningxia[J].Arid Land Geography, 2022, 45(5): 1637-1648.

Figures/Tables 11

Fig. 1

Tab. 1

Calculation methods of landscape pattern indices"

景观格局指数	计算公式	含义
斑块数（NP）	NP=n_i	式中：n_i为景观i的斑块数;NP反映了区域景观或不同景观类型的空间分布格局及其破碎化程度。
斑块密度（PD）	$P D = A i A$	式中：A_i为景观i的总面积（km²）;A为景观总面积（km²）;PD描述区域景观或不同景观类型空间斑块的破碎程度。
最大斑块指数（LPI）	$L P I = A m a x A$	式中：A_max为最大斑块的面积（km²）;A为景观总面积（km²）;LPI反映了区域景观中的优势景观类型及其丰富程度,体现了人类活动的强弱程度。
景观形状指数（LSI）	$L S I = 0.25 E A$	式中：E为研究区景观斑块边界的总长度（km）;A为景观总面积（km²）;LSI反映了区域景观或不同景观类型的斑块形状结构的复杂性特征。
景观分离度指数（SPLIT）	$S P L I T = A 2 ∑ i = 1 n A i 2$	式中：A为景观总面积（km²）;A_i为景观i的总面积（km²）;n为斑块数;SPLIT描述不同景观类型斑块的破碎化程度,从而间接地反映了人类干扰的强度对斑块的影响程度。
蔓延度指数（CONTAG）	$C O N T A G = 1 + ∑ i = 1 n ∑ j = 1 n p i j l n p i j 2 l n m$	式中：m为景观类型数;n为斑块数;p_ij为随机选择的2个邻近栅格单元是属于i和j的概率;CONTAG描述了区域景观的空间团聚程度及其延展的趋势。
香浓多样性指数（SHDI）	$S H D I = - ∑ i = 1 n l n p i$	式中：p_i为景观i所占景观总面积的比例（%）;n为景观类型数;SHDI反映了区域景观类型的丰度及其景观多样性特征的变化情况。

Tab. 1

Tab. 2

Calculation formulas of ecological risk indices"

生态风险指数	计算公式	含义
景观破碎度（C_i）	$C i = n i A i$	式中：C_i为景观i的破碎度;n_i为景观i的斑块数;A_i为景观i的总面积（km²）。C_i表示景观的破碎化程度,该值越大,说明生态系统稳定性越差。
景观分离度（F_i）	$F i = A 2 A i n i A i$	式中：F_i为景观i的分离度;A为景观总面积（km²）。F_i表示景观i斑块与斑块间的分离程度,该值越大,表明该类景观的斑块空间分布越复杂。
景观分维数（D_i）	$D i = 2 l n Q i 4 l n A i$	式中：D_i为景观i的分维数;Q_i为景观i的周长（km）。D_i表示斑块或景观i镶嵌体几何形状复杂程度的非整型维数值,D_i∈[1, 2],该值越大,表明景观的斑块结构和变化越复杂。
景观干扰度（E_i）	$E i = a C i + b F i + c D i$	式中：E_i为景观干扰度;a、b、c为相应景观指数权重,取值分别为0.5、0.3、0.2。E_i表示人类活动干扰对景观格局的影响程度,该值越大,表明生态系统受人类活动影响就越大,景观稳定性越差。
景观脆弱度（V_i）	专家咨询法结合归一化获得^[28]	景观脆弱度表示景观类型对外界干扰的敏感性程度,该值越大,表明生态风险越高。依据研究区实际情况,结合专家咨询和相关研究进行赋值,并经归一化得到不同类型景观脆弱性指数。
景观损失度（R_i）	$R i = E i + V i$	景观损失度表示遭到干扰时各类景观受到的生态损失的差异。通过景观干扰度和景观脆弱度综合表征。

Tab. 2

Tab. 3

Tab. 4

Tab. 5

Tab. 6

Fig. 2

Tab. 7

Fig. 3

Tab. 8

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地类	2000年		2010年		2020年		变化率/%
地类	面积/km²	占比/%	面积/km²	占比/%	面积/km²	占比/%	2000—2010年	2010—2020年	2000—2020年
耕地	1913.04	29.19	1600.02	24.42	1612.90	24.61	-16.36	0.80	-15.69
林地	338.35	5.16	473.55	7.23	485.26	7.41	39.96	2.47	43.42
草地	3323.85	50.72	3559.53	54.32	3500.67	53.42	7.09	-1.65	5.32
水域	10.15	0.15	15.07	0.23	16.94	0.26	48.47	12.41	66.90
建设用地	77.53	1.18	98.03	1.50	184.48	2.82	26.44	88.19	137.95
未利用地	889.91	13.58	806.63	12.31	752.58	11.48	-9.36	-6.71	-15.43

年份	斑块数（NP）	斑块密度（PD） /块·km^-2	最大斑块指数（LPI）	景观形状指数（LSI）	香浓多样性指数（SHDI）	蔓延度指数（CONTAG）
2000	2969	0.45	31.05	53.49	1.19	61.42
2010	2918	0.45	31.76	52.04	1.20	61.22
2020	3394	0.52	30.87	53.84	1.24	60.01
变化率/%	14.31	15.56	-0.58	0.65	4.20	-2.30

景观格局指数	年份	耕地	林地	草地	水域	建设用地	未利用地
斑块数（NP）	2000	1318	272	356	57	377	589
	2010	1209	329	294	80	410	596
	2020	1249	362	337	83	766	604
斑块密度（PD）	2000	0.20	0.04	0.05	0.01	0.06	0.09
	2010	0.18	0.05	0.04	0.01	0.06	0.09
	2020	0.19	0.06	0.05	0.01	0.12	0.09
最大斑块指数（LPI）	2000	19.04	1.09	31.05	0.01	0.05	2.15
	2010	16.81	1.10	31.76	0.03	0.13	1.97
	2020	15.70	1.08	30.87	0.07	0.27	1.83
景观形状指数（LSI）	2000	63.08	26.87	63.21	10.77	25.21	44.49
	2010	61.05	29.88	59.75	12.30	26.36	45.11
	2020	62.17	31.38	60.61	12.47	32.59	45.63
景观分离度指数（SPLIT）	2000	848.28	5528.43	9.09	10475639.59	1061396.15	897.94
	2010	1202.94	4410.68	8.15	4983153.51	335167.77	1853.16
	2020	1129.90	4555.30	7.93	1725770.40	56868.25	2310.38

年份	低风险区		较低风险区		中等风险区		较高风险区		高风险区
年份	面积/km²	占比/%	面积/km²	占比/%	面积/km²	占比/%	面积/km²	占比/%	面积/km²	占比/%
2000	166.96	2.55	758.26	11.57	2255.94	34.42	2768.63	42.25	603.63	9.21
2010	945.08	14.42	2029.06	30.96	2228.08	34.00	1144.39	17.46	206.81	3.16
2020	1091.77	16.66	2120.90	32.36	1899.01	28.98	1181.99	18.04	259.75	3.96

生态风险转移类型	2000—2010年		2010—2020年		2000—2020年
生态风险转移类型	转换面积/km²	转换速率/km²·a^-1	转换面积/km²	转换速率/km²·a^-1	转换面积/km²	转换速率/km²·a^-1
低—较低	0.00	0.00	126.32	12.63	3.93	0.39
低—中等	0.00	0.00	28.65	2.86	0.03	0.00
低—较高	0.00	0.00	3.62	0.36	0.00	0.00
低—高	0.00	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.00	0.00
较低—低	341.17	34.12	299.92	29.99	463.24	46.32
较低—中等	6.11	0.61	201.17	20.12	18.00	1.80
较低—较高	4.74	0.47	43.59	4.36	14.99	1.50
较低—高	0.35	0.03	10.02	1.00	6.34	0.63
中等—低	228.61	22.86	5.37	0.54	226.95	22.70
中等—较低	1135.28	113.53	481.79	48.18	1278.13	127.81
中等—较高	38.71	3.87	286.51	28.65	179.02	17.90
中等—高	18.33	1.83	23.10	2.31	51.66	5.17
较高—低	171.40	17.14	0.00	0.00	193.19	19.32
较高—较低	409.17	40.92	38.44	3.84	502.28	50.23
较高—中等	1307.91	130.79	234.43	23.44	1266.21	126.62
较高—高	46.12	4.61	65.43	6.54	96.96	9.70
高—低	36.94	3.69	0.00	0.00	45.39	4.54
高—较低	78.71	7.87	0.00	0.00	80.87	8.09
高—中等	79.05	7.90	3.45	0.34	94.59	9.46
高—较高	266.91	26.69	42.18	4.22	277.99	27.80

Geographical exploration of the spatial and temporal evolution of ecological risk and its influencing factors in semi-arid regions: A case of Yanchi County in Ningxia

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影响因素	影响因子	贡献率/%
影响因素	影响因子	2000年	2010年	2020年
自然	高程	6.86	5.96	5.28
	坡度	3.06	3.09	3.08
	年均降水量	10.79	7.29	8.15
	年均气温	5.06	4.86	6.29
	归一化植被指数（NDVI）	4.29	3.75	4.01
	土壤有机质含量	3.43	3.09	3.28
社会经济	土地利用程度	14.36	13.79	15.22
	人为干扰度	24.56	26.49	29.67
	人均GDP	5.46	6.82	8.77
	人口密度	3.42	3.87	3.72
区域可达性	距道路距离	2.75	3.07	3.98
	距水域面积	1.47	1.69	1.55
	距城镇中心距离	2.16	3.09	3.06

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