Abstract:

The virtuous interaction between new-quality productive forces and cultural-tourism integration constitutes a key pathway for promoting coordinated regional development and facilitating in dustrial upgrading. To systematically uncover the intrinsic mechanisms and spatiotemporal differentiation of their co-evolution, this study analyzes data from 30 provincial-level regions in China from 2011 to 2023. It develops an evaluation framework for new-quality productive forces across four dimensions: Innovation-driven, digitally empowered, factor upgrading, and green efficiency. For cultural-tourism integration, an evaluation framework is established based on three dimensions: Foundational integration capacity, driving force for integration, and manifestations of integration. The Haken model is used to identify the order parameters and dynamic mechanisms of co-evolution, whereas the Dagum Gini coefficient, global Moran’s I, and kernel density estimation are applied to analyze regional disparities, spatial correlations, and dynamic evolution patterns of their synergistic levels. The findings reveal that (1) In the temporal dimension, the synergy value of the “new-quality productive forces-cultural-tourism integration” composite system follows a three-stage evolution pattern: Incubation phase→critical transition phase→high-quality leap phase. Overall synergy levels have continuously improved, with the central region’s synergy value exceeding that of the eastern region in 2023, highlighting the pivotal role of institutional innovation in overcoming path dependence. (2) Spatially, coordination levels display a gradient pattern of “east>central>west” with significant spatial clustering, resulting in a polarized pattern where “high-high” and “low-low” coordination poles coexist. Dagum decomposition shows that interregional differences are the primary source of overall variation, and the contribution of super-variable density has significantly increased since 2020, reflecting intensified interprovincial coordination disparities. (3) Mechanistically, cultural-tourism integration functions as the order parameter steering system evolution, continuously exerting traction on the development of new-quality productive forces. However, in the short term, new-quality productive forces exert a marginal crowding-out effect on cultural-tourism integration due to technology adaptation costs and resource displacement, indicating that the overall system is still undergoing a process of synergistic optimization. Based on these findings, this paper recommends strengthening the demand-driven role of cultural-tourism integration, improving adaptation mechanisms for new-type productive forces, implementing differentiated regional policies, and enhancing cross-regional collaboration and factor mobility. These measures aim to elevate the overall coordination level of the composite system and advance high-quality, coordinated regional development.

Key words: new quality productive forces, cultural-tourism integration, co-evolution, spatial effects, mechanism of action