塔里木河流域60 a来天然径流变化趋势分析

Abstract

Abstract: Based on runoff time series during the last 60 years,this paper analyzed the spatial and temporal variation of natural runoffs for the Tarim River Basin,Xinjiang,China with the trend analysis,mutation test and interdecadal analysis methods.The response of runoffs to temperature and precipitation changes was also investigated.The results showed that the total runoffs of the three source streams of the Tarim River(i.e.Aksu,Yarkant and Hotan Rivers) increased significantly during the past 60 years,but runoffs of the main stream decreased significantly.The change point of runoffs was around 1993.Comparing runoffs before and after 1993,Aksu River showed a largest increase in runoffs,followed by Yarkant River and Hotan River.But after 2000,the Hotan River showed the largest increase,followed by the Yarkant River and Aksu River, which indicated that the wet degree of climate become weak gradually from south to north of the Tarim River Basin.The runoff increases of the three source streams of the Tarim River are caused by increment in precipitation,and the enlargement of snowmelt runoff owing to the rise of temperature.The main reason for the runoff volume decrease of the mainstream of the Tarim River is the enlargement of water consumption caused by human activities at the source region of the Tarim River.

Key words: Tarim River, natural runoff, changing trend

CLC Number:

P333.1

ZHOU Hai-ying, SHEN Ming-xi, CHEN Jie, XIA Jun, HONG Si. Trends of natural runoffs in the Tarim River Basin during the last 60 years[J].干旱区地理, 2018, 41(2): 221-229.

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Trends of natural runoffs in the Tarim River Basin during the last 60 years

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