基于系统动力学模型的塔里木河流域水资源承载力研究

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000–6060.2021.05.21

Abstract

Abstract:

Assessing the carrying capacity of water resources is a central issue in water resources research. However, there is still debate about how to assess the carrying capacity of water resources. Most of the studies assessing the water resource carrying capacity of the Tarim Rvier Basin, Xinjiang, China have been based on empirical methods. However, few studies have used system dynamics models to assess the carrying capacity of water resources in the Tarim River Basin. This study constructed a systematic dynamic model for calculating the historical and future carrying capacity of the water resources in the Tarim River Basin. The dataset of this study is an authoritative dataset from the Statistical Yearbook and Bulletin on Water Resources in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region. The results indicate that the water resources of the Tarim River Basin exceeded carrying capacity during the historical period (2008-2016). From 2008 to 2016, the yield of water above the red line of water consumption was almost 10% of the red line of water consumption in the Tarim River Basin. According to socio-economic development trends, the water resources of the Tarim River Basin will remarkably exceed their water resource carrying capacity in the future (2020-2030). The yield of water above the red line of water consumption will be almost 32% of the red line of water consumption in the Tarim River Basin in 2030. In response to the needs of sustainable socio-economic development and water resource utilization, the water resources of the Tarim River Basin will gradually meet their water resource carrying capacity in the future (2020-2030). The water yield below the red line of water consumption will almost be 9% of the red line of water consumption in the Tarim River Basin in 2030. Given that the water resources of the Tarim River Basin do not exceed theirs water resource carrying capacity, the agricultural irrigation quota must be limited to less than 5.70×10³ m³·hm^-2 in 2030. The irrigated area should be limited to less than 2.60×10⁶ hm². The agricultural irrigation quota of 5.7×10³ m³·hm^-2 is slightly higher than the level of Israel, corresponding to the agricultural irrigation quota of 5.25×10³ m³·hm^-2. In the context of sustainable use of water resources in the Tarim River Basin, this study suggests that more agricultural water-saving facilities and irrigation technologies should be popularized. For example, drip irrigation technology should be used to irrigate farmlands in the Tarim River Basin. The water consumption of the gross domestic product (GDP) of the secondary and service industries is much lower than the GDP water consumption of industrial agriculture and water-saving agriculture. Structural adjustment of the planting industry needs to be pre-developed in the Tarim River Basin in the future. There is a need to accelerate the transformation of the Tarim River Basin industry and increase GDP, which accounts for the secondary and service industries. Therefore, the service and the secondary industries must be the pillar industries of the Tarim River Basin. This study also suggests that the Tarim River Basin should maintain a rapid growth trend in the industrial and service sector over the next decade. This can accelerate the development of the service industry, promote the economic development of the region, and reduce the dependence on water resources.

Key words: water resource carrying capacity, system dynamics model, arid region, water-saving agriculture, Tarim River Basin

LIU Xia,ZHANG Man,XU Jianhua,GUO Ying,DUAN Weili,SHEN Yanjun. Water resources carrying capacity of Tarim River Basin based on system dynamics model[J].Arid Land Geography, 2021, 44(5): 1407-1416.

Figures/Tables 11

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References 25

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年份	巴州	克州	阿克苏	喀什	和田	塔里木河流域
2020	46.92	4.30	93.07	106.09	41.10	291.48
2030	46.26	4.30	92.50	94.94	41.10	279.10

评估结果	巴州	克州	阿克苏	喀什	和田	塔里木河流域
承载系数	1.04	2.36	1.16	1.10	1.11	1.13
超标水量/10⁸m³	2.09	5.38	14.43	10.35	4.46	37.16

参数	巴州	克州	阿克苏	喀什	和田	塔里木河流域
灌溉用水定额/m³·hm^-2	640	681	698	604	880	/
单位二产用水量/m³·(10⁴元)^-1	42.70	50.40	50.84	26.15	37.10	40.48
单位三产用水量/m³·(10⁴元)^-1	6.41	3.88	4.91	2.09	54.77	5.06
人均用水量/m³·人^-1	67.51	53.08	25.52	41.20	24.90	37.68
一产GDP年均增长率/%	15.55	15.60	13.26	10.93	14.13	14.90
二产GDP年均增长率/%	10.87	11.62	18.02	23.73	4.88	8.86
三产GDP年均增长率/%	15.78	22.58	14.86	17.07	13.76	16.27
人口年均增长率/%	2.85	2.46	16.14	2.16	1.25	2.17

年份	生活用水	一产用水	二产用水	三产用水	生态用水
2008	2.60	303.17	2.83	0.66	6.04
2009	3.09	295.89	2.62	0.52	5.83
2010	2.42	306.63	3.05	0.48	3.81
2011	3.10	294.79	3.44	0.51	3.03
2012	3.44	321.41	3.92	0.60	2.48
2013	3.78	348.02	4.39	0.68	1.93
2014	3.83	332.75	4.02	0.86	1.64
2015	3.77	330.34	3.82	0.93	1.53
2016	4.26	327.53	4.26	0.43	2.01

方案	年份	巴州	克州	阿克苏	喀什	和田	塔里木河流域
现状方案	2020	0.96	3.04	1.45	0.97	1.25	1.20
	2025	0.90	3.76	1.64	0.88	1.49	1.25
	2030	0.86	5.11	1.90	0.82	1.83	1.34
可承载方案	2020	0.90	2.80	1.30	0.91	1.09	1.09
	2025	0.77	3.05	1.24	0.73	1.13	0.98
	2030	0.71	3.79	1.20	0.61	1.24	0.91

Water resources carrying capacity of Tarim River Basin based on system dynamics model

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