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›› 2015, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (2): 232-238.

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Projections of climate change for the period 2016-2075 in Delingha Basin under SRES A1B scenarios

LIU  Bo1,2,LIU  Jin-sheng1,2,SHU  Long-cang1,2,LI  Xiu-cang3,LU  Cheng-peng1,2,LIU  Xiao-xue1,2   

  1. (1    State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering,Hohai University,Nanjing  210098,Jiangsu, China;2    College of Hydrology and Water Resources,Hohai University,Nanjing  210098,Jiangsu,China;3    National Climate Center,China Meteorological Administration,Beijing  100081,China)
  • Received:2014-09-14 Revised:2014-12-09 Online:2015-03-25

Abstract: Delingha Basin is located in the northwest of China, which is closed drainage system. The water resource in the basin is mainly consumed by evaporation from land and vegetation. This kind of consumption is closely related to meteorological conditions. Therefore,the study on the characteristics of temperature and precipitation changes and trends may contribute to the protection of local environmental. Based on the data analysis of temperature and precipitation in SRES A1B scenario of ECHAM5/MPI-OM module from 2016 to 2075,by statistical methods such as linear trend analysis,running average and running t method, meteorological variation trends of the whole period, decadal variations and the abrupt changes were analysed. Finally, the climate change trend in Delingha Basin in the same period was derived. The results indicate that the temperature in Delingha Basin shows a rising trend from 2016 to 2075. The seasonal and yearly change show the same trend in general. Temperature of both scale will increase 3-4 degrees. In addition, the increase of temperature in summer will be relatively greater and so will the yearly change. Precipitation in the future 60 years will keep steady, showing a slight downward trend. The interannual variation of precipitation in summer will be the most significant, so we should be aware of the extreme climate events. There will be obvious abrupt changes in both temperature and precipitation. The abrupt change of temperature will happen near the year of 2035,and that of precipitation will happen in the end of 2030s and the early of 2040s respectively. The results roughly reflect the trend of climate change in Delingha Basin, which can provide scientific guidance for local development in a certain extent.

Key words: projections of climate change, Delingha Basin, temperature, precipitation, abrupt change of climate

CLC Number: 

  • P467