近60 a哈密市极端气温时空变化特征

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2022.484

Abstract

Abstract:

The meteorological data of the daily maximum and minimum temperatures of Hami City National Meteorological Reference Station, Xinjiang, China from 1961 to 2019 were selected to predict future temperature changes in the city. The spatiotemporal variation characteristics of extreme temperature in Hami City were analyzed using the univariate linear regression method, 10 a moving average, Mann-Kendall method, moving t test, and principal component analysis method, which provided a certain basis for determining the future temperature trend, enhancing the city’s ability to respond to extreme temperature events, and reducing the harm caused by meteorological disasters to agricultural production in Hami City. The results showed the following: (1) The change in the extreme temperature index in Hami City is asymmetric, the change in cold and warm indexes is opposite, and the warming amplitude of the night index is greater than that of the day index. Seasonally, most extreme temperature indices vary more widely in summer and autumn. (2) In the past 60 years, the frequency of extreme low-temperature events in Hami City decreased significantly, among which frost days decreased most significantly, with a decrease of -4.59 d·(10a)^-1. The frequency and intensity of extreme heat events have increased significantly. The growth season length tends to be consistent with the change of the thermal persistence index, while the change of the cold persistence index is the opposite. (3) The extreme temperature and cold indices are more sensitive to climate change. The abrupt changes occurred in the mid-1980s and the late 1990s, and the abrupt changes in the warm and persistent indices occurred in the late 1990s. (4) The cumulative variance contribution rate of the two principal components was 76.453%, the correlation between extreme temperature events and temperature warming was high, and the cold and warm index was negatively correlated. Cold nights, cold days, frost days, warm nights, and warm days were the main factors for the temperature increase in Hami City.

Key words: extreme temperature index, temporal and spatial variation, mutation test, Hami City

CHEN Yueping, WU Shengli, ZHAO Xin, ZHANG Yijia. Spatial and temporal variation characteristics of extreme temperatures in Hami City in the past 60 years[J].Arid Land Geography, 2023, 46(6): 868-879.

Figures/Tables 9

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References 26

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分类	指数	代码	单位	定义
冷指数	霜冻日数	FD0	d	一年中日最低气温<0 ℃的日数
	冷夜日数	TN10P	d	日最低气温<10%分位值的日数
	冷昼日数	TX10P	d	日最高气温<10%分位值的日数
	冰冻日数	ID0	d	日最高气温<0 ℃的日数
	日最低气温极低值	TNn	℃	年日最低气温的最小值
	日最高气温极低值	TXn	℃	年日最高气温的最小值
暖指数	夏日日数	SU25	d	日最高气温>25 ℃的日数
	暖夜日数	TN90P	d	日最低气温>90%分位值的日数
	暖昼日数	TX90P	d	日最高气温>90%分位值的日数
	热夜日数	TR20	d	日最低气温>20 ℃的日数
	日最低气温极高值	TNx	℃	年日最低气温的最大值
	日最高气温极高值	TXx	℃	年日最高气温的最大值
持续指数	生长季度长	GSL	d	连续6 d>5 ℃或<5 ℃的时间跨度
	冷持续指数	CSDI	d	连续6 d最低气温在10%分位值的日数
	热持续指数	WSDI	d	连续6 d最高气温在90%分位值的日数

指数	年	春季	夏季	秋季	冬季
TNn/℃·(10a)^-1	0.65^*	0.57^*	0.67^*	0.58^*	0.70^*
TXn/℃·(10a)^-1	0.30	0.19	0.33^*	0.36^*	0.29^*
TX10P/d·(10a)^-1	-1.16^*	-0.94^*	-1.33^*	-1.10^*	-1.11^*
TN10P/d·(10a)^-1	-1.90^*	-1.71^*	-2.14^*	-2.06^*	-1.68^*
TXx/℃·(10a)^-1	4.12^*	0.32^*	0.28^*	0.26^*	0.32^*
TNx/℃·(10a)^-1	0.53^*	0.49^*	0.53^*	0.55^*	0.46^*
TX90P/d·(10a)^-1	1.76^*	1.65^*	3.00^*	1.33^*	1.09^*
TN90P/d·(10a)^-1	3.85^*	3.98^*	5.35^*	3.25^*	2.54^*

指数	哈密市	天山地区^[15]	巴州地区^[16]	阿勒泰地区^[3]	新疆^[17]	青藏高原^[18]	黄土高原^[19]	全球^[5]
FD0/d·(10a)^-1	-4.59^*	-3.66^**	-3.17^*	-0.44	-3.69^**	-4.32^*	-3.46^*	-
TN10P/d·(10a)^-1	-1.90^*	-3.56^**	-3.55^**	-0.36^*	-6.57^**	-2.38^*	-1.86^*	-1.26^*
TX10P/d·(10a)^-1	-1.16^*	-1.23^**	-1.30^**	-0.15^*	-2.60^**	-0.85^*	-0.95^*	-0.62^*
ID0/d·(10a)^-1	-1.09	-1.16	-0.30	-0.17	-1.61^*	-2.46^*	-	-
TNn/℃·(10a)^-1	0.65^*	0.62^**	0.36^*	0.06	-	0.69^*	0.44^*	0.71^*
TXn/℃·(10a)^-1	0.31	0.29	0.17	0.04	-	0.30^*	0.19	0.37
SU25/d·(10a)^-1	3.51^*	1.59^**	1.88^**	-	2.14^**	-	-	-
TN90P/d·(10a)^-1	3.85^*	3.67^**	4.67^**	0.33^*	6.23^**	1.58^*	1.80^*	1.58^*
TX90P/d·(10a)^-1	1.76^*	1.73^**	2.76^**	0.14^*	3.59^*	1.26^*	1.93^*	0.89^*
TR20/d·(10a)^-1	4.06^*	1.59^*	2.66^**	-	1.71^**	-	-	-
TXx/℃·(10a)^-1	4.12^*	0.09	0.26^**	0.18	-	0.28^*	0.63^*	0.21^*
TNx/℃·(10a)^-1	0.53^*	0.34^**	0.41^**	0.05^*	-	0.25^*	0.39^*	0.30^*
GSL/d·(10a)^-1	3.52^*	2.94^**	2.60^**	0.33^*	2.74^**	4.25^*	3.76^*	-
CSDI/d·(10a)^-1	-0.77^*	-1.61^**	0.90	-	-1.27^**	-	-	-
WSDI/d·(10a)^-1	2.85^*	0.95^*	1.73^**	-	0.88^**	-	-	-

指数	主成分1	主成分2
FD0	-0.927	-0.103
TN10P	-0.889	0.226
TX10P	-0.843	0.272
ID0	-0.426	0.608
TNn	0.613	-0.664
TXn	0.383	-0.822
SU25	0.875	0.298
TN90P	0.922	0.190
TX90P	0.892	0.135
TR20	0.874	0.363
TNx	0.791	0.161
TXx	0.876	0.363
GSL	0.816	0.148
CSDI	-0.481	0.520
WSDI	0.752	0.170
主成分特征值	9.092	2.376
主成分方差贡献率/%	60.614	15.839

指数	FD0	TN10P	TX10P	ID0	TNn	TXn	SU25	TN90P
FD0	1.000
TN10P	0.809^**	1.000
TX10P	0.755^**	0.862^**	1.000
ID0	0.293^*	0.483^**	0.513^**	1.000
TNn	-0.516^**	-0.643^**	-0.589^**	-0.549^**	1.000
TXn	-0.275^*	-0.459^**	-0.455^**	-0.516^**	0.912^**	1.000
SU25	-0.813^**	-0.707^**	-0.719^**	-0.156	0.316^*	0.097	1.000
TN90P	-0.883^**	-0.813^**	-0.689^**	-0.337^**	0.424^**	0.180	0.834^**	1.000
TX90P	-0.846^**	-0.661^**	-0.653^**	-0.443^**	0.454^**	0.232	0.818^**	0.839^**
TR20	-0.788^**	-0.726^**	-0.620^**	-0.101	0.328^*	0.062	0.854^**	0.878^**
TNx	-0.665^**	-0.612^**	-0.493^**	-0.247	0.470^**	0.229	0.726^**	0.739^**
TXx	-0.790^**	-0.725^**	-0.624^**	-0.103	0.328^*	0.062	0.856^**	0.879^**
GSL	-0.857^**	-0.671^**	-0.743^**	-0.199	0.365^**	0.174	0.742^**	0.771^**
CSDI	0.344^**	0.627^**	0.641^**	0.370^**	-0.472^**	-0.481^**	-0.300^*	-0.318^*
WSDI	-0.733^**	-0.508^**	-0.477^**	-0.290^*	0.385^**	0.203	0.628^**	0.643^**
指数	TX90P	TR20	TNx	TXx	GSL	CSDI	WSDI
TX90P	1.000
TR20	0.759^**	1.000
TNx	0.735^**	0.787^**	1.000
TXx	0.762^**	1.000^**	0.792^**	1.000
GSL	0.739^**	0.667^**	0.494^**	0.671^**	1.000
CSDI	-0.255^*	-0.272^*	-0.249	-0.274^*	-0.317^*	1.000
WSDI	0.812^**	0.661^**	0.619^**	0.662^**	0.638^**	-0.174	1.000

Spatial and temporal variation characteristics of extreme temperatures in Hami City in the past 60 years

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