气候变化背景下尼雅河流域生态基流研究

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2021.476

Abstract

Abstract:

Watershed ecological base flow is crucial for the health and stability of river ecosystems. On the basis of meteorological data obtained by the meteorological station of Minfeng County, Xinjiang, China during 1958—2018 and hydrological data obtained by four hydrological monitoring sections in the Niya River from 1978—2018, we reveal the response of ecological base flow to climate change using trend fitting, Tennant method, correlation analysis, and regression model to analyze the climate change, determine the ecological base flow, and explore its spatiotemporal differentiation and guarantee rate change. Results show that air temperature and precipitation increased at a rate of 0.22 ℃·(10a)^-1 and 3.8 mm·(10a)^-1, respectively, in the past 61 a. For Niya Reservoir, 818 Canal Head, Niya hydrology station, and Niya Canal head, the recommended annual ecological base flow values are 1.989 m³·s^-1, 2.188 m³·s^-1, 1.755 m³·s^-1, and 1.702 m³·s^-1, respectively. The interannual minimum and maximum of the ecological base flow occurred in 1980 and 2010, respectively; the annual maximum occurred in July, and the minimum occurred in January or December. Spatially, it is higher in the upper reaches and lower in the lower reaches, with the highest at the head of 818 Canal and the lowest at the head of Niya Canal. The annual average ecological base current guarantee rate of each station is 50%, 45%, 50%, and 45%, respectively, and it is significantly higher during the flood season than the nonflood season. A significant correlation exists between annual and monthly ecological base flow and temperature and precipitation at the 0.01 level, but it is sensitive to temperature in spring and summer, and to precipitation in autumn and winter. The coupling effect of regression models of all hydrological sections is similar, with the basin overall regression equation obtaining R²=0.365. The response of ecological base flow to climate change has the characteristics of integrity and attenuation. These results can provide a reference for ecological water diversion and water ecological restoration in the Niya River Basin.

Key words: climate change, ecological base flow, hydrologic method, assurance, Niya River

HU Keke,HE Jiancun,ZHAO Jian,SU Litan,ZHANG Yin. Ecological base flow in Niya River Basin under climate change[J].Arid Land Geography, 2022, 45(5): 1472-1480.

Figures/Tables 11

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References 26

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流量状况	占年均天然径流量比重/%
流量状况	汛期（5—9月）	非汛期（10—翌年4月）
最大	200	200
最佳范围	60~100	60~100
极好	60	40
非常好	50	30
好	40	20
中	30	15
差	10	10
极差	0~10	0~10

年代	1958—1977年	1978—1997年	1998—2018年
气温/℃	11.04	11.47	12.75
距平/℃	-0.73	-0.30	0.98
降水量/mm	31.47	39.92	51.89
距平/mm	-9.80	-1.35	10.62

月份	尼雅水库	八一八渠首	尼雅水文站	尼雅渠首
1	0.018	0.02	0.016	0.016
2	0.019	0.021	0.017	0.016
3	0.031	0.034	0.028	0.027
4	0.172	0.188	0.151	0.147
5	1.857	2.034	1.638	1.590
6	5.664	6.195	4.995	4.842
7	8.721	9.540	7.692	7.458
8	5.652	6.183	4.986	4.833
9	1.530	1.674	1.350	1.308
10	0.134	0.231	0.118	0.114
11	0.056	0.092	0.049	0.048
12	0.023	0.039	0.020	0.020
汛期	4.685	5.125	4.132	4.006
非汛期	0.065	0.089	0.057	0.055

水文监测断面	回归方程	残差平方和	R²
尼雅水库	y=0.099x₁+0.012x₂+0.253	9.009	0.368
八一八渠首	y=0.108x₁+0.013x₂+0.275	10.782	0.368
尼雅水文站	y=0.065x₁+0.01x₂+0.445	6.229	0.353
尼雅渠首	y=0.084x₁+0.01x₂+0.216	6.590	0.368
流域整体	y=0.89x₁+0.11x₂+0.298	8.037	0.365

Ecological base flow in Niya River Basin under climate change

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