极点对称模态分解下陕西气候变化特征及影响因素

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000–6060.2021.01.04

Abstract

Abstract:

Against the background of global warming affected by human activities and climate system fluctuations, climate response is non-linear and nonsmoothed. A hot topic is how to identify multiple-time scale information about climatic change. The spatiotemporal characteristics of climate change were analyzed for three geographical sub-regions of Shaanxi Province by sliding average, trend analysis, and extreme-point symmetric mode decomposition (ESMD) methods, using daily temperature and precipitation data between 1970 and 2017 and then discussing the tele-correlation between sea surface temperature (SST) in 17 different sea areas and the regional temperature and precipitation changes. The main SST indexes included El Niño-Southern Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation, Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), and Kuroshio Current SST (KCSST). The results showed that from 1970 to 2017, the mean annual temperature in Shaanxi rose significantly, with step-change points in 1984, 1999, and 2012. In detail, climate change in northern Shaanxi involved warming-drying, cooling-wetting, and warming-wetting, whereas in Guanzhong Plain and southern Shaanxi, there was warming-drying from 1970 to 1999. Since 1999, the regional climate of these two regions exhibited a warming hiatus, and it was not until 2012 that intensified warming and decreasing precipitation have become more obvious. The ESMD of temperature and precipitation signals showed a non-linear upward trend, which implied changes on decadal scales (9.2-11.5 a) in response to the warming hiatus. The temperature increased in Guanzhong Plain and southern Shaanxi, except for a slight decline in northern Shaanxi in 1999—2017. Spatial differences exist in the influencing factors of temperature and precipitation in Shaanxi Province. The SST of eastern China is the dominant influencing factor for annual and decadal temperature variability. Temperatures generally increase in Shaanxi with positive SST anomaly for both NINO A and KCSST. Additionally, positive SST anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific cause decreasing precipitation in both Guanzhong Plain and southern Shaanxi. Less precipitation was expected in northern Shaanxi with increasing positive SST anomalies centered in the eastern equatorial Pacific, commonly known as the East Pacific type of El Niño. The above results could provide insights for the regional response and risk management of extreme precipitation resulting from global climate change. However, it should be noted that the connections between the SST and climate anomalies in Shaanxi Province are not clear. Hence, future work should determine the SST-forced heat and moisture stress anomalies to explain rainfall variations.

Key words: extreme-point symmetric mode decomposition (ESMD), climate change, spatiotemporal analysis, Shaanxi Province

SHEN Yuchen,LI Shuangshuang,YAN Junping,WU Yaqun,WANG Chengbo. Spatiotemporal climate variation and its influencing factors in Shaanxi Province based on extreme-point symmetric mode decomposition[J].Arid Land Geography, 2021, 44(1): 36-46.

Figures/Tables 7

Fig. 1

Tab. 1

Indices of ocean-atmosphere circulation on different sea areas"

序号	海气环流	定义
1	NINO 1+2区	0°~10°S、80°~90°W区域内,海表温度距平的区域平均值
2	NINO 3区	5°S~5°N、90°~150°W区域内,海表温度距平的区域平均值
3	NINO 4区	5°S~5°N、150°W~160°E区域内,海表温度距平的区域平均值
4	NINO 3.4区	5°S~5°N、120°~170°W区域内,海表温度距平的区域平均值
5	NINO W区	0°~10°N、140°~180°E区域内,海表温度距平的区域平均值
6	NINO C区	10°S~0°、90°~180°W区域内,海表温度距平的区域平均值
7	NINO A区	25°~35°N、130°~150°E区域内,海表温度距平的区域平均值
8	NINO B区	0°~10°N、50°~90°E区域内,海表温度距平的区域平均值
9	PDO	北太平洋年代际振荡指数,20°N以北的北太平洋地区,海表温度距平经验正交函数分解（EOF）第1模态的时间系数
10	AMO	大西洋经向模海温指数,21°S~32°N、74°W~15°E区域内,海表温度(左场)和经、纬向10 m风场(右场)最大协方差分析结果中海表温度场(左场)的时间系数
11	QBO	准两年振荡指数,赤道地区30 hPa纬向风平均值
12	NAT	大西洋海温三极子指数,0°~60°N、0°~80°W区域内,海表温度距平（去除线性趋势）经验正交函数分解（EOF）第一模态作为投影模态,月海温距平场在去除全球海温增暖影响后对该模态投影系数的标准化序列
13	SOI	南方涛动指数,指标准化塔希提与达尔文站月平均海平面气压之差的序列的标准化值
14	NCP	中部型厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO）指数
15	NEP	东部型厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO）指数
16	KCSST	黑潮区海温指数,指35°N、140°~150°E及25°~30°N、125°~150°E区域内,海表温度距平的区域平均值
17	WPWP	西太平洋暖池强度指数,指30°S~30°N、120°~180°E范围,海表温度超过28.0 °C的区域内,格点海表温度与28.0 °C之差乘以格点面积的累积值.

Tab. 1

Fig. 2

Fig. 3

Tab. 2

Fig. 4

Fig. 5

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分区	气候因子	指标	IMF1	IMF2	IMF3	R
陕北地区	气温	周期	4.0 a	9.6 a/8.0 a	-	-
		贡献率	34.1%	26.4%	-	39.5%
		F值	9.6	6.2/5.7	-	-
	降水	周期	2.5 a/2.2 a	6.9 a-6.0 a-4.8 a-4.4 a	12.0 a/9.6 a	-
		贡献率	40.7%	20.8%	11.9%	26.6%
		F值	10.0/3.6	4.5/4.6/4.2/4.3	10.5/14.6	-
关中地区	气温	周期	4.0 a	6.9 a	24.0 a-16.0 a	-
		贡献率	26.1%	18.9%	12.8%	42.1%
		F值	9.8	28.1	14.1-6.1	-
	降水	周期	3.7 a	9.6 a/6.9 a	24.0 a/16.0 a	-
		贡献率	49.6%	24.2%	14.9%	11.3%
		F值	3.5	27.6/6.6	32.3/12.0	-
陕南地区	气温	周期	4.0 a/3.7 a	6.9 a/9.6 a	24.0 a/48 a	-
		贡献率	26.7%	20.1%	19.7%	33.5%
		F值	6.4/3.7	18.0/7.2	32.2/6.8	-
	降水	周期	2.2 a	12.0 a-9.6 a-6.9 a	-	-
		贡献率	44.2%	29.2%	-	26.6%
		F值	4.1	4.5/23.6/4.4	-	-

Spatiotemporal climate variation and its influencing factors in Shaanxi Province based on extreme-point symmetric mode decomposition

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