伊犁河流域多时间尺度气象干旱时空特征

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2025.377

Abstract

Abstract:

The Ili River, a key transboundary river linking Xinjiang, China, and Kazakhstan, has experienced increasingly severe droughts. Based on ERA5-Land reanalysis data (1980—2023) and using the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) as the evaluation metric, the multi-timescale spatiotemporal characteristics of meteorological drought in the Ili River Basin were systematically analyzed using the Theil-Sen slope, run theory, and probability distribution functions. Results indicate that (1) From 1980 to 2023, the SPEI exhibited a significant declining trend in spring, summer, autumn, and annually (P<0.05), with a quasi-periodic oscillation of ~7 and ~13 years at the annual scale. (2) Over the past 44 years, drought frequency increased, and drought severity significantly intensified (P<0.05) at monthly, seasonal, and annual scales. (3) Drought conditions were most severe from 2020 to 2023, with drought frequency and intensity reaching their highest values in 44 years. (4) Drought duration was strongly positively correlated with severity, with similar spatial patterns of their return periods and consistent joint and cooccurrence probabilities. (5) Spatially, areas around Lake Balkhash and parts of the Ili River Basin in China were identified as drought hotspots, exhibiting pronounced drying trends and frequent extreme events; thus, strengthening drought monitoring and early warning systems in these regions is essential. These findings provide a scientific basis for drought risk prevention and adaptive management in the Ili River Basin.

Key words: meteorological drought, SPEI, run theory, Copula function, Ili River Basin

ZHOU Yue, LU Ruijie, HUANG Mengzhen. Spatiotemporal characteristics of multi-timescale meteorological drought in the Ili River Basin[J].Arid Land Geography, 2026, 49(5): 894-906.

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站点名称	月降水量	2 m高度月平均气温
博乐	0.711	0.994
霍尔果斯	0.602	0.996
霍城	0.400	0.991
温泉	0.763	0.994
精河	0.581	0.995
乌苏	0.607	0.995
察布查尔	0.590	0.991
伊宁	0.635	0.990
尼勒克	0.773	0.994
伊宁县	0.568	0.996
巩留	0.646	0.992
新源	0.843	0.995
昭苏	0.883	0.995
特克斯	0.845	0.993
巴音布鲁克	0.851	0.971

函数	最优面积占比/%
函数	AIC	RMSE
Clayton	21.95	0.35
Frank	78.05	73.69
Gumbel	0.00	25.95

Spatiotemporal characteristics of multi-timescale meteorological drought in the Ili River Basin

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