西藏气候基准值更新的气候响应与业务影响

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2025.423

Abstract

Abstract:

To understand the impact of updating climatological normals on climate characteristics and operational assessments in Xizang of China, Based on the data of 38 national meteorological stations in Xizang from 1981 to 2023, the effects of updating the old and new climatological normals values from 1981 to 2010 and from 1991 to 2020 on climate change and business were analyzed. The results reveal the following: (1) Under the new climatological normals, the climate in Xizang is warmer and wetter than under the previous normals, with the annual mean temperature increasing by 0.3 ℃ and annual precipitation increasing by 2.0%. Annual mean temperature increases are more pronounced in the western, northern, and northeastern regions, while annual mean precipitation shows uneven spatial distribution. (2) Updating climatological normals significantly affects climate-related operations, such as the identification of warm winter events and the probability of extreme high and low temperatures. Under the new normals, the number of regional warm winter years in Xizang over the past 43 years decreased from 18 years to 9 years. (3) Based on the new climatological normals, the number of (significantly) high annual mean temperature years decreased from 16 years to 9 years, whereas the number of (significantly) low annual mean temperature years increased from 6 years to 12 years, resulting in a shift in the average temperature evaluation from high to low categories. The frequency of extreme high-temperature seasons decreases, whereas low-temperature years (seasons) increase. (4) The frequency of above-normal spring and summer years decreases, whereas above-normal autumn years increase. Meanwhile, the likelihood of extreme heavy precipitation increases in autumn but decreases in spring and summer. The observed changes, such as the reduction in warm winter years and the apparent increase in the probability of extreme low-temperature events, are primarily attributable to elevated statistical thresholds associated with warmer climatological normals. This reflects a statistical reconstruction effect rather than an actual cooling trend or a real increase in extreme cold events in Xizang.

Key words: updated climatological normals, climate assessment system, extreme climate events, Xizang

CI Wang, DU Jun, ZHAXI Dunzhu, CHEN Xianyan, XIAO Zhuojing, PINGCUO Sangdan, LIU Sai. Climate response and operational impact of updated climatological normals in Xizang[J].Arid Land Geography, 2026, 49(5): 907-916.

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References 32

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气温距平（△T）/℃	气温等级	降水距平百分率（△R）/%	降水等级
△T≥2.0	异常偏高	△R≥80	异常偏多
1.0≤△T<2.0	显著偏高	50≤△R<80	显著偏多
0.5≤△T<1.0	偏高	25≤△R<50	偏多
-0.5<△T<0.5	正常	-25<△R<25	正常
-1.0<△T≤-0.5	偏低	-50<△R≤-25	偏少
-2.0<△T≤-1.0	显著偏低	-80<△R≤-50	显著偏少
△T≤-2.0	异常偏低	△R≤-80	异常偏少

年份	是否为区域暖冬年
年份	旧气候基准值	新气候基准值
1988	√	×
1999	√	×
2001	√	√
2002	√	×
2005	√	√
2006	√	√
2007	√	×
2008	√	×
2009	√	√
2010	√	×
2012	√	×
2013	√	×
2014	√	×
2016	√	√
2017	√	√
2018	√	√
2021	√	√
2023	√	√

时段	平均气温		降水量
时段	极高	极低	极强	极弱
年	0.0	4.7	0.0	4.7
春季	-4.7	4.7	-2.3	0.0
夏季	-2.3	0.0	-2.3	2.3
秋季	0.0	4.7	2.3	0.0
冬季	-2.3	2.3	0.0	0.0

Climate response and operational impact of updated climatological normals in Xizang

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