1981—2018年内蒙古典型草原季节性冻土对气候变化的响应

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2021.317

Abstract

Abstract:

This study investigates patterns of seasonally frozen soil in the context of climate change and assesses meteorological factors affecting variations in maximum frozen soil depth. Spatial and temporal characteristics of maximum frozen soil depth were evaluated for an area of typical steppe in Inner Mongolia, northern China over the most recent 38 years (1981—2018). Interannual and interdecadal variations were analyzed statistically using climate tendency rate, cumulative distance level, Mann-Kendall methods, and multiple linear regression. Meteorological data such as temperature, wind speed and relative humidity were used to analyze potential controls on maximum frozen soil depth. The study found that, for seasonally frozen soil of the Inner Mongolian steppe: (1) Soil typically freezes from September-November and thaws from April-June, with a maximum frozen soil depth of 100-280 cm attained in February-March. (2) Interannual variations in maximum frost depth can be classified into three patterns (lower open parabolic, upper open parabolic, and sinusoidal), with 68% of stations showing a trend of decreasing depth over time. (3) Interdecadal variations can also be divided into three types (decreasing chronologically, decreasing then increasing, and no clear pattern), with 50% of stations recording progressively shallower depths before 1989 followed by a change to a trend of thickening with time. (4) Multiple linear regression suggests that temperature freezing index, annual mean wind speed, and annual extreme minimum temperature had significant effects on maximum frozen soil depth.

Key words: seasonal frozen soil, climate change, typical steppe, multi-variate linear regression

SU Yue,ZHANG Cunhou, Amuersana,LI Ke. Response of seasonal frozen soil to climate change on a typical steppe of Inner Mongolia during 1981—2018[J].Arid Land Geography, 2022, 45(3): 684-694.

Figures/Tables 8

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站点	克什克腾旗	卓资县	东乌珠穆沁旗	高力板镇	阿巴嘎旗	扎赉特旗	正镶白旗	集宁区	凉城县	阿鲁科尔沁旗	商都县
气候倾向率	-3.0532^**	-1.9700^**	-1.6186^**	-1.3624^**	-1.0748^**	-1.0060^**	-0.9537^**	-0.8673^**	-0.7032^**	-0.4415	-0.3507
站点	巴林右旗	正蓝旗	化德县	太仆寺旗	察哈尔右翼前旗	察哈尔右翼后旗	察哈尔右翼中旗	锡林浩特市	扎鲁特旗	科尔沁左翼中旗	西乌珠穆沁旗
气候倾向率	-0.3400	-0.3173	-0.2984	-0.1627	0.2836	0.3624	0.4241	0.4678	0.8530^**	1.1050^**	1.3071^**

气象站点	1981—1990年	1991—2000年	2001—2010年	2011—2018年
高力板镇	168.9	154.5	138.6	131.9
克什克腾旗	264.1	232.0	206.1	176.9
卓资县	217.9	187.3	172.0	159.8
阿巴嘎旗	260.1	217.8	222.7	226.4
西乌珠穆沁旗	164.5	146.9	176.7	195.9
扎鲁特旗	124.4	107.8	126.3	150.1
科尔沁左翼中旗	127.1	105.3	142.9	151.8
锡林浩特市	234.3	230.9	242.1	249.0
太仆寺旗	232.3	209.9	220.1	226.0
察哈尔右翼前旗	133.3	118.0	124.1	144.0
察哈尔右翼中旗	198.1	180.6	195.8	207.4
察哈尔右翼后旗	209.9	183.9	193.7	220.9
集宁区	147.3	109.8	110.8	121.9
扎赉特旗	203.9	196.6	168.8	182.4
东乌珠穆沁旗	283.8	246.2	230.6	238.5
商都县	179.4	154.4	141.9	177.5
巴林右旗	173.2	152.8	147.2	167.6
正镶白旗	226.9	193.7	191.4	200.5
凉城县	149.9	143.8	118.1	135.9
化德县	186.5	160.0	179.5	176.6
阿鲁科尔沁旗	168.4	148.5	159.3	155.1
正蓝旗	233.7	211.5	237.4	213.8

气象因子	年平均气温	气温冻结指数	地面冻结指数	气温年较差	年极端最高气温	年极端最低气温	平均相对湿度
Pearson相关系数	-0.698^**	-0.680^**	0.569^**	0.386^**	-0.112^**	-0.577^**	0.371^**
气象因子	年降水量	最大积雪深度	平均40 cm地温	平均80 cm地温	日照时数	年平均风速
Pearson相关系数	-0.147^**	0.167^**	-0.692^**	-0.656^**	0.185^**	0.358^**

气候因子	未标准化系数		标准化系数	t检验	显著性	共线性统计
气候因子	回归系数	标准误差	回归系数	t检验	显著性	容差	方差膨胀系数（VIF）
常量	-32.340	17.706	-	-1.826	0.068	-	-
气温冻结指数	-0.056	0.004	-0.463	-13.303	0.000	0.494	2.023
气温年较差	-0.144	0.389	-0.012	-0.371	0.711	0.578	1.729
平均相对湿度	0.487	0.286	0.050	1.699	0.090	0.679	1.472
年平均风速	8.445	1.638	0.134	5.154	0.000	0.879	1.138
年极端最低气温	-2.797	0.449	-0.238	-6.229	0.000	0.411	2.433

Response of seasonal frozen soil to climate change on a typical steppe of Inner Mongolia during 1981—2018

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