关中地区高温脆弱性评估及其时空变化研究

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2023.691

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

随着全球气候变暖，极端高温事件频发，对人类健康和社会经济发展构成严重威胁。综合利用遥感数据和社会经济统计数据，建立“暴露度-敏感性-适应能力”高温脆弱性评价指标体系，量化高温脆弱性指数，揭示2005—2020年关中地区高温脆弱性时空演化特征。结果表明：（1）2005—2020年关中地区夏季地表温度高温区面积增加，地表温度空间格局大致相似，次高温区和高温区呈片状分布在中部区域，次低温区和低温区集中分布在南部秦岭山区。（2）关中地区高温脆弱性空间集聚特征明显，分布格局与地表温度类似，较高和高等级脆弱性区域主要集中分布在中部平原，低和较低等级区域主要分布在南部秦岭山区。（3）2005—2020年关中地区高温脆弱性指数呈降低趋势，较高和高等级脆弱性面积占比由2005年的48.20%降低至2020年的37.49%。（4）2005—2010年，高温脆弱性等级发生变化的范围较小，2010—2020年，各高温脆弱性等级发生变化的范围明显增加，大部分区域脆弱性等级降低，主要表现为中脆弱性降为较低脆弱性、较高脆弱性降为中脆弱性、高脆弱性降为较高脆弱性。研究结果可为高温适应能力的提高和高温脆弱性的减缓提供参考与借鉴。

关键词: 地表温度, 高温脆弱性, 时空变化, 关中地区

Abstract:

With global warming, extreme heat events have occurred more frequently, posing significant threats to human health, and social and economic development in many regions. This study comprehensively utilizes remote sensing data and socio-economic statistics to develop a heat vulnerability evaluation index system based on the “exposure-sensitivity-adaptability” framework. This approach quantifies heat vulnerability and reveals its spatiotemporal characteristics in the Guanzhong region of Shaanxi Province, China, from 2005 to 2020. The results indicate that: (1) The high-temperature zones of summer land surface temperature in the Guanzhong region expanded from 2005 to 2020. The spatial pattern of land surface temperature remained relatively consistent, with sub-high-temperature and high-temperature zones distributed sporadically in the central area, while sub-low-temperature and low-temperature zones were concentrated in the southern Qinling Mountains. (2) Heat vulnerability in the Guanzhong region exhibited significant spatial clustering, mirroring the distribution pattern of surface temperature. Higher vulnerability zones were predominantly located in the central plains, whereas lower and low vulnerability zones were mainly found in the southern Qinling Mountains. (3) The heat vulnerability index of the Guanzhong region showed a decreasing trend from 2005 to 2020, with the proportion of higher and high vulnerability areas declining from 48.20% in 2005 to 37.49% in 2020. (4) From 2005 to 2010, changes in heat vulnerability levels were relatively minor, whereas from 2010 to 2020, the extent of changes increased substantially, with most regions experiencing a decrease in vulnerability levels. This change was primarily characterized by medium vulnerability shifting to lower vulnerability, higher vulnerability reducing to medium vulnerability, and high vulnerability decreasing to higher vulnerability. The findings offer valuable insights for enhancing heat adaptability and mitigating heat vulnerability.

Key words: land surface temperature, heat vulnerability, spatial-temporal variation, Guanzhong area

包微, 黄晓军, 纪王迪. 关中地区高温脆弱性评估及其时空变化研究[J]. 干旱区地理, 2024, 47(11): 1863-1875.

BAO Wei, HUANG Xiaojun, JI Wangdi. Evaluation of heat vulnerability and its spatial-temporal variation in the Guanzhong area[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2024, 47(11): 1863-1875.

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目标层	维度层	指标层	指标释义	指标权重	指标属性
高温脆弱性	暴露度	地表温度/℃	夏季地表温度均值	1.0000	正
	敏感性	人口密度/人·km^-2	反映研究区域人口聚集程度	0.3418	正
		5岁以下人口密度/人·km^-2	反映儿童的敏感性特征	0.3153	正
		65岁及以上人口密度/人·km^-2	反映老年人的敏感性特征	0.3429	正
	适应能力	人均GDP/元	反映研究区域经济水平	0.3182	负
		每万人病床数/张·(10⁴人)^-1	反映应对高温灾害健康保障水平	0.2730	负
		每万人卫生技术人员数/人·(10⁴人)^-1	反映应对高温灾害健康保障水平	0.3314	负
		归一化植被指数（NDVI）	反映研究区域应对高温的绿化设施水平	0.0774	负

地表温度等级	地表温度范围
低温区	LST<μ-SD
次低温区	μ-SD≤LST≤μ-0.5SD
中温区	μ-0.5SD<LST≤μ+0.5SD
次高温区	μ+0.5SD<LST≤μ+SD
高温区	LST>μ+SD