喀什三角洲NDVI演变特征及其对气候的响应

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.300

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为探究植被生长变化趋势和气候因子对植被生长的影响程度，基于MODIS植被指数数据和同期逐月平均气温、逐月降水量数据，采用线性趋势分析法、Pearson相关分析法和偏相关分析法等方法，对2000—2020年新疆喀什三角洲不同季节归一化植被指数（NDVI）时空变化特征及其对平均气温、降水量的响应关系进行了研究。结果表明：（1）研究区NDVI整体呈极显著上升趋势，生长季、春、夏、秋季呈显著极显著增加面积占比为79.8%、71.2%、72.1%、91.3%。（2）研究区NDVI对平均气温、降水量的整体响应关系不显著，降水量对NDVI的影响占主导地位，但存在季节差异和空间显著作用。生长季NDVI与平均气温呈负相关、与降水量呈正相关，春、夏季NDVI与平均气温、降水量均呈正相关，秋季NDVI与平均气温、降水量均呈负相关。（3）研究区平均气温对NDVI时滞响应以负相关为主，降水量对NDVI时滞响应以正相关为主，表明气温升高对植被生长有抑制作用，降水量增加对植被生长有促进作用，且降水量比平均气温对NDVI的滞后性强。研究结果可以为干旱区生态环境变化分析和生态保护修复提供参考依据。

关键词: NDVI, 时空变化, 气候因子, 喀什三角洲

Abstract:

The impact of climatic factors on vegetation growth was examined using MODIS vegetation index data, monthly average temperature, and precipitation data for the period 2000—2020. Linear trend analysis, Pearson correlation analysis, and partial correlation analysis were applied to study the temporal and spatial variations in normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) across different seasons and its response to mean temperature and precipitation in the Kashi Delta of Xinjiang, China. The findings revealed the following trends: (1) NDVI in the study area showed a highly significant upward trend, with significant increases in the affected area during the growing season, spring, summer, and autumn, at 79.8%, 71.2%, 72.1%, and 91.3%, respectively. (2) Overall, NDVI showed no significant response to mean temperature and precipitation, though precipitation had a dominant influence on NDVI. Seasonal and spatial variations were observed. During the growing season, NDVI was negatively correlated with temperature and positively correlated with precipitation. In spring and summer, NDVI was positively correlated with both temperature and precipitation, while in autumn, it was negatively correlated with both. (3) The time-lag response of temperature to NDVI was mainly negative, whereas precipitation showed a mainly positive lag effect on NDVI. This suggests that increasing temperatures inhibit vegetation growth, while increased precipitation promotes it. Precipitation has a stronger lag effect on NDVI than temperature. These findings provide valuable insights for future analysis of ecological evolution in arid regions and can guide ecological protection and restoration efforts.

Key words: NDVI, spatio and temporal variation, climate factors, Kashi Delta

张海东, 李崇博, 孟李奇, 阿地来·赛提尼亚孜, 巨喜锋. 喀什三角洲NDVI演变特征及其对气候的响应[J]. 干旱区地理, 2025, 48(2): 296-307.

ZHANG Haidong, LI Chongbo, MENG Liqi, Adilai SAITINIYAZI, JU Xifeng. Evolutionary characteristics of NDVI in the Kashi Delta and its response to the climate[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2025, 48(2): 296-307.

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季节	斜率/10^-3·a^-1	变化趋势面积占比/%
季节	斜率/10^-3·a^-1	不显著减少	显著减少	极显著减少	不显著增加	显著增加	极显著增加
生长季	1.9^**	5.50	1.10	3.10	10.40	5.40	74.50
春季	1.0^**	6.50	1.00	2.00	19.30	11.40	59.80
夏季	2.6^**	8.70	2.00	4.40	12.90	5.70	66.30
秋季	1.2^**	0.00	0.00	8.70	0.00	0.00	91.30

年份	不同季节NDVI	平均气温/℃		降水量/mm
年份	不同季节NDVI	同季均温	前季均温	同季降水量	前季降水量
2000—2020	生长季	-0.085	-0.025	0.241	0.287
	春季	0.013	0.081	0.262	0.302
	夏季	0.276	0.116	0.402	0.048
	秋季	-0.141	0.231	-0.279	0.326
2000—2005	生长季	-0.282	-0.072	0.726	0.533
	春季	-0.526	-0.004	0.821^*	0.729
	夏季	0.446	-0.104	0.067	0.741
	秋季	-0.160	-0.244	0.017	0.637
2006—2010	生长季	-0.835^*	0.034	0.870^*	0.589
	春季	-0.557	-0.073	0.689	0.417
	夏季	-0.441	-0.130	0.752	0.811
	秋季	0.702	-0.660	0.055	0.727
2011—2015	生长季	-0.447	0.697	0.001	-0.540
	春季	0.414	0.504	-0.040	-0.251
	夏季	-0.840^*	-0.045	-0.185	-0.547
	秋季	0.799	-0.394	0.259	0.564
2016—2020	生长季	0.274	-0.933^*	-0.347	0.198
	春季	-0.181	-0.302	-0.481	0.199
	夏季	0.154	-0.408	-0.041	-0.298
	秋季	0.476	-0.036	-0.946^*	-0.589