基于WRF模式的无定河流域极端气候特征分析

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2023.597

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

在气候变化背景下，黄土高原半干旱区域的极端气候事件尚有诸多不确定问题亟待解决。利用静态地理数据和FNL（Final operational global analysis）全球再分析数据，结合天气研究与预报模式WRF（Weather research and forecasting model）模拟了2011—2022年无定河流域气候情况，并利用流域内4个气象监测站点实测数据对模拟结果进行验证，以分析模型的适用性。在此基础上，选取11个极端天气指标，利用Sen趋势+Mann-Kendall（M-K）检验，分析无定河流域极端降水和极端气温在年际和季节尺度上的空间分布特征和时空趋势变化。结果表明：（1）流域极端降水事件东部多于西部，单日最大降水量（RX1day）、雨日降水总量（PRCPTOT）的年际和季节空间分布特征均为东高西低。（2）流域极端降水事件进一步增多，降水量和强度进一步增强，但降水的持续性和干旱程度都有所减少，具体为四季降水增多但秋季东部降水减少。（3）流域的极端气温事件东部多于西部，极端最低气温（TNn）、极端最高气温（TXx）的年际和季节空间分布特征均为东高西低。（4）流域极端气温事件进一步增多，高温和低温的频率与强度在东西方向上呈现相反的变化，具体表现为夏季气温下降、春季气温上升。

关键词: WRF, 极端降水, 极端气温, 时空变化特征, 无定河流域

Abstract:

There are still many uncertainties to be solved about extreme climate events in the semi-arid region of the Loess Plateau under climate change. In this study, the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model driven by the static geographical data and the final operational global analysis (FNL) global reanalysis data was used to simulate the climate of the Wuding River Basin of Shaanxi Province, China from 2011 to 2022, and the simulated results were verified using the observed data from four meteorological stations in the basin to analyze the applicability of the model. On this basis, 11 extreme weather indicators were selected, combined with Sen’s slope estimator and the Mann-Kendall (M-K) test to analyze the spatial distribution characteristics and spatiotemporal trend changes of extreme precipitation and extreme temperature at the annual and seasonal scales in the Wuding River Basin. The conclusions are as follows: (1) Extreme precipitation events in the basin are more frequent in the east than in the west, and the interannual and seasonal spatial distribution characteristics of the maximum daily precipitation (RX1day) and precipitation total (PRCPTOT) are high in the east and low in the west. (2) Extreme precipitation events in the basin will further increase, precipitation amount and intensity will further increase, but the duration of precipitation and the degree of drought will decrease, specifically reflected in increased precipitation in all seasons but decreased precipitation in autumn in the east. (3) Extreme temperature events in the basin are more frequent in the east than in the west, and the interannual and seasonal spatial distribution characteristics of the minimum temperature (TNn) and maximum temperature (TXx) are high in the east and low in the west. (4) Extreme temperature events in the basin will further increase, and the frequency of high and low temperatures and their intensity show opposite changes in the east and west directions, specifically manifested as decreased temperature in summer and increased temperature in spring.

Key words: WRF, extreme precipitation, extreme temperature, spatiotemporal variation characteristics, Wuding River Basin

张顺伟, 周自翔, 熊炫晨, 周杰. 基于WRF模式的无定河流域极端气候特征分析[J]. 干旱区地理, 2024, 47(9): 1482-1495.

ZHANG Shunwei, ZHOU Zixiang, XIONG Xuanchen, ZHOU Jie. Extreme climate characteristics in the Wuding River Basin based on WRF model[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2024, 47(9): 1482-1495.

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数据名称	数据描述	数据来源
地理基础信息数据	行政区划、水系等	http://www.ngcc.cn/ngcc/
高程数据	空间分辨率（30 m×30 m）	http://www.gscloud.cn/
静态地理数据	空间分辨率（1 km×1 km）	https://www2.mmm.ucar.edu/
FNL全球再分析数据	空间分辨率（1°×1°）	https://rda.ucar.edu/
气象数据	逐日降水、气温	https://data.cma.cn/

分类	指数名称	指数代码	定义	单位	时间尺度
强度指数	单日最大降水量	RX1day	最大1日降水量	mm	月或年
	雨日降水总量	PRCPTOT	雨日（日降水量≥1 mm）降水总量	mm	月或年
	雨日降水强度	SDII	年内日降水量≥1 mm的总量与总日数之比	mm·d^-1	年
持续指数	持续干燥日数	CDD	日降水量<1 mm的最长连续日数	d	月或年
	持续湿润日数	CWD	日降水量≥1 mm的最长连续日数	d	月或年

分类	指数名称	指数代码	定义	单位	时间尺度
强度指数	极端最低气温	TNn	日最低气温的最小值	℃	月或年
	极端最高气温	TXx	日最高气温的最大值	℃	月或年
	气温日较差	DTR	日最高气温与最低气温的差值	℃	月或年
持续指数	暖持续日数	WSDI	连续6 d日最高气温>90%分位值日	d	年
	霜冻日数	FD	日最低气温低于0 ℃的日数	d	月或年
	夏日日数	SU	日最高气温大于25 ℃的日数	d	月或年

两层嵌套方案	参数设置	物理方案	方案名称
初始边界条件	FNL Data	长波辐射方案	RRTM
投影坐标系	Lat-Lon	短波辐射方案	Dudhia
区域中心点	38.2°N，109.5°E	地表参数化方案	MYJ Monin-Obukhov
时间步长	150 s	云微物理方案	CAM 5.1
嵌套格点	d01：30×30；d02：61×66	陆面过程方案	Noah LSM
空间分辨率	d01：0.25°；d02：0.05°	大气边界层方案	MYJ
输出的时间步长	d01：24 h；d02：1 h	浅积云方案	Kain-Fritsch

气象要素	站点	RMSE	MAE	r	IA
最高气温/℃	榆林	3.98	2.08	0.96	0.96
	绥德	3.92	2.11	0.96	0.97
	横山	1.90	1.70	1.00	0.99
	靖边	1.74	1.56	1.00	0.99
最低气温/℃	榆林	3.39	1.69	0.97	0.97
	绥德	0.85	0.74	1.00	1.00
	横山	0.79	0.67	1.00	1.00
	靖边	1.24	1.02	1.00	1.00
降水量/mm	榆林	0.25	0.17	1.00	0.99
	绥德	0.53	0.31	0.93	0.97
	横山	0.13	0.09	0.99	1.00
	靖边	0.18	0.12	0.99	0.99