收藏设为首页 广告服务联系我们在线留言

干旱区地理 ›› 2024, Vol. 47 ›› Issue (9): 1482-1495.doi: 10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2023.597 cstr: 32274.14.ALG2023597

• 气候与水文 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于WRF模式的无定河流域极端气候特征分析

张顺伟(), 周自翔(), 熊炫晨, 周杰   

  1. 西安科技大学测绘科学与技术学院,陕西 西安 710054
  • 收稿日期:2023-10-24 修回日期:2023-12-31 出版日期:2024-09-25 发布日期:2024-09-24
  • 通讯作者: 周自翔(1976-),男,博士后,副教授,主要从事生态系统服务研究. E-mail: zzxcat@qq.com
  • 作者简介:张顺伟(1998-),男,硕士研究生,主要从事生态系统服务研究. E-mail: 21210226057@stu.xust.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(41771576);国家自然科学基金国际(地区)合作与交流项目〔合作交流-NSFC-NRF(中韩)〕(41811540400)

Extreme climate characteristics in the Wuding River Basin based on WRF model

ZHANG Shunwei(), ZHOU Zixiang(), XIONG Xuanchen, ZHOU Jie   

  1. College of Surveying and Mapping Science and Technology, Xi’an University of Science and Technology, Xi’an 710054, Shaanxi, China
  • Received:2023-10-24 Revised:2023-12-31 Published:2024-09-25 Online:2024-09-24

摘要:

在气候变化背景下,黄土高原半干旱区域的极端气候事件尚有诸多不确定问题亟待解决。利用静态地理数据和FNL(Final operational global analysis)全球再分析数据,结合天气研究与预报模式WRF(Weather research and forecasting model)模拟了2011—2022年无定河流域气候情况,并利用流域内4个气象监测站点实测数据对模拟结果进行验证,以分析模型的适用性。在此基础上,选取11个极端天气指标,利用Sen趋势+Mann-Kendall(M-K)检验,分析无定河流域极端降水和极端气温在年际和季节尺度上的空间分布特征和时空趋势变化。结果表明:(1) 流域极端降水事件东部多于西部,单日最大降水量(RX1day)、雨日降水总量(PRCPTOT)的年际和季节空间分布特征均为东高西低。(2) 流域极端降水事件进一步增多,降水量和强度进一步增强,但降水的持续性和干旱程度都有所减少,具体为四季降水增多但秋季东部降水减少。(3) 流域的极端气温事件东部多于西部,极端最低气温(TNn)、极端最高气温(TXx)的年际和季节空间分布特征均为东高西低。(4) 流域极端气温事件进一步增多,高温和低温的频率与强度在东西方向上呈现相反的变化,具体表现为夏季气温下降、春季气温上升。

关键词: WRF, 极端降水, 极端气温, 时空变化特征, 无定河流域

Abstract:

There are still many uncertainties to be solved about extreme climate events in the semi-arid region of the Loess Plateau under climate change. In this study, the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model driven by the static geographical data and the final operational global analysis (FNL) global reanalysis data was used to simulate the climate of the Wuding River Basin of Shaanxi Province, China from 2011 to 2022, and the simulated results were verified using the observed data from four meteorological stations in the basin to analyze the applicability of the model. On this basis, 11 extreme weather indicators were selected, combined with Sen’s slope estimator and the Mann-Kendall (M-K) test to analyze the spatial distribution characteristics and spatiotemporal trend changes of extreme precipitation and extreme temperature at the annual and seasonal scales in the Wuding River Basin. The conclusions are as follows: (1) Extreme precipitation events in the basin are more frequent in the east than in the west, and the interannual and seasonal spatial distribution characteristics of the maximum daily precipitation (RX1day) and precipitation total (PRCPTOT) are high in the east and low in the west. (2) Extreme precipitation events in the basin will further increase, precipitation amount and intensity will further increase, but the duration of precipitation and the degree of drought will decrease, specifically reflected in increased precipitation in all seasons but decreased precipitation in autumn in the east. (3) Extreme temperature events in the basin are more frequent in the east than in the west, and the interannual and seasonal spatial distribution characteristics of the minimum temperature (TNn) and maximum temperature (TXx) are high in the east and low in the west. (4) Extreme temperature events in the basin will further increase, and the frequency of high and low temperatures and their intensity show opposite changes in the east and west directions, specifically manifested as decreased temperature in summer and increased temperature in spring.

Key words: WRF, extreme precipitation, extreme temperature, spatiotemporal variation characteristics, Wuding River Basin