三江源植被覆盖变化驱动机制及生态脆弱性分析

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.324

干旱区地理 ›› 2025, Vol. 48 ›› Issue (2): 283-295.doi: 10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.324 cstr: 32274.14.ALG2024324

三江源植被覆盖变化驱动机制及生态脆弱性分析

李康宁¹^,²^,³(), 林伊琳¹^,²^,³(), 赵俊三¹^,²^,³, 王健¹^,²^,³, 葛峰⁴

1.昆明理工大学国土资源工程学院，云南昆明 650093
2.智慧矿山地理空间信息集成创新重点实验室，云南昆明 650093
3.云南省高校自然资源空间信息集成与应用科技创新团队，云南昆明 650211
4.中国石油天然气股份有限公司吉林油田分公司英台采油厂地面所，吉林吉林 138000

收稿日期:2024-05-26 修回日期:2024-11-26 出版日期:2025-02-25 发布日期:2025-02-25
通讯作者: 林伊琳（1991-），女，硕士生导师，主要从事GIS、国土资源遥感等方面的研究. E-mail: 20200111@kust.edu.cn
作者简介:李康宁（2000-），女，硕士研究生，主要从事GIS、国土资源遥感等方面的研究. E-mail: 20222201075@stu.kust.edu.cn
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金资助项目(42301304);云南省基础研究计划项目(202201AU070112)

Driving mechanisms of vegetation change and ecological vulnerability in the Three-River Headwater Region

LI Kangning¹^,²^,³(), LIN Yilin¹^,²^,³(), ZHAO Junsan¹^,²^,³, WANG Jian¹^,²^,³, GE Feng⁴

1. Faculty of Land Resources Engineering, Kunming University of Science and Technology, Kunming 650093, Yunnan, China
2. Key Laboratory of Geospatial Information Integration Innovation for Smart Mines, Kunming 650093, Yunnan, China
3. Spatial Information Integration Technology of Natural Resources in Universities of Yunnan Province, Kunming 650211, Yunnan, China
4. China National Petroleum Corporation Jilin Oilfield Branch Yingtai Oil Production Plant Ground Station, Jilin 138000, Jilin, China

Received:2024-05-26 Revised:2024-11-26 Published:2025-02-25 Online:2025-02-25

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

探究三江源地区植被覆盖变化、驱动机制及生态脆弱性对其生态可持续发展具有重要意义。基于归一化植被指数（NDVI）、核归一化差异植被指数（kNDVI），采用Theil-Sen Median趋势分析、Mann-Kendall显著性检验法和地理探测器，探究植被覆盖时空变化及驱动机制，并运用“敏感-恢复-压力”模型评价生态脆弱性。结果表明：（1） 2001—2020年三江源地区植被NDVI和kNDVI均呈波动上升趋势，空间上，改善区域主要在东北部和西部，分别占73.70%和79.79%，退化区域主要在中部和南部，分别占23.23%和18.18%。（2）降水量、海拔和气温是主导因素，因子间交互作用为双因子增强或非线性增强，降水量在573~675 mm、海拔在3447~3850 m范围内更适宜植被生长。（3）生态脆弱性程度从东南部向西北部呈递增趋势，空间差异显著，该地区生态脆弱性较高，NDVI和kNDVI代表的重度、极度脆弱性区域分别占总面积的35.38%和36.85%。

关键词: NDVI, kNDVI, 植被时空变化, 生态脆弱性评价, 地理探测器

Abstract:

Investigating changes in vegetation cover, the driving mechanisms behind these changes, and the region’s ecological vulnerability in the Three-River Headwater Region (TRHR), Qinghai Province, China is essential for ensuring its ecological sustainability. Normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and kernel normalized difference vegetation index (kNDVI) were used, along with Theil-Sen Median trend analysis, Mann-Kendall significance test, and geographic detectors to explore the spatiotemporal changes in vegetation cover and driving forces. The sensitivity-resilience-pressure (SRP) model was used to assess ecological vulnerability. The results revealed the following trends: (1) From 2001 to 2020, both NDVI and kNDVI in the TRHR showed a fluctuating upward trend. Spatially, areas of improvement were mainly in the northeast and west, covering 73.70% and 79.79%, respectively, while areas of decline were primarily in the central and southern regions, covering 23.23% and 18.18%, respectively. (2) Precipitation, elevation, and temperature were the dominant factors influencing vegetation cover, with interactions among these factors led to bifactor or nonlinear enhancement effects. Precipitation between 573-675 mm and elevations of 3447-3850 m were most favorable for vegetation growth. (3) Ecological vulnerability increased from the southeast to the northwest, showing significant spatial variation. The region exhibited high ecological vulnerability, with areas of severe and extreme vulnerability, as indicated by NDVI and kNDVI, covering 35.38% and 36.85% of the total area, respectively.

Key words: NDVI, kNDVI, temporal and spatial changes of vegetation, ecological vulnerability assessment, geographic detector

李康宁, 林伊琳, 赵俊三, 王健, 葛峰. 三江源植被覆盖变化驱动机制及生态脆弱性分析[J]. 干旱区地理, 2025, 48(2): 283-295.

LI Kangning, LIN Yilin, ZHAO Junsan, WANG Jian, GE Feng. Driving mechanisms of vegetation change and ecological vulnerability in the Three-River Headwater Region[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2025, 48(2): 283-295.

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判断区间	交互作用
q(X_n∩X_m)<min[q(X_n), q(X_m)]	非线性减弱
min[q(X_n), q(X_m)]<q(X_n∩X_m)<max[q(X_n), q(X_m)]	单因子非线性减弱
q(X_n∩X_m)>max[q(X_n), q(X_m)]	双因子增强
q(X_n∩X_m)=q(X_n)+q(X_m)	相互独立
q(X_n∩X_m)>q(X_n)+q(X_m)	非线性增强

目标层	准则层	指标层	属性
敏感性（0.7089）	地形因子（0.2024）	海拔（0.1797）	正向
敏感性（0.7089）		坡度（0.0227）	正向
	地表因子（0.0496）	土地利用类型（0.0496）	定性
	气象因子（0.4570）	降水量（0.1943）	负向
		气温（0.1630）	负向
		蒸散发（0.0356）	负向
		PM₁₀（0.0641）	正向
恢复力（0.1786）	植被因子（0.1191）	NDVI/kNDVI（0.1191）	负向
恢复力（0.1786）	多样性因子（0.0595）	生物丰富度指数（0.0595）	负向
压力度（0.1125）	社会因子（0.1125）	人口密度（0.0844）	正向
压力度（0.1125）		夜间灯光（0.0281）	正向

生态脆弱性程度	生态脆弱性指数
生态脆弱性程度	NDVI	kNDVI
微度脆弱	0.087~0.237	0.084~0.253
轻度脆弱	0.237~0.299	0.253~0.316
中度脆弱	0.299~0.359	0.316~0.376
重度脆弱	0.359~0.428	0.376~0.444
极度脆弱	0.428~0.555	0.444~0.555

指标		X₁	X₂	X₃	X₄	X₅	X₆	X₇	X₈	X₉	X₁₀
NDVI	q	0.513	0.449	0.187	0.034	0.007	0.229	0.493	0.007	0.123	0.078
NDVI	P	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
kNDVI	q	0.504	0.438	0.182	0.036	0.007	0.178	0.500	0.008	0.123	0.062
kNDVI	P	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000

降水量/mm	降水量/mm
降水量/mm	0~225	225~280	280~330	330~379	379~427	427~472	472~516	516~573	573~675
0~225
225~280	Y
280~330	Y	Y
330~379	Y	Y	Y
379~427	Y	Y	Y	Y
427~472	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y
472~516	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y
516~573	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	N
573~675	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y
NDVI	0.143	0.196	0.253	0.302	0.351	0.416	0.445	0.451	0.558
kNDVI	0.045	0.061	0.091	0.117	0.144	0.186	0.204	0.209	0.270

三江源植被覆盖变化驱动机制及生态脆弱性分析

Driving mechanisms of vegetation change and ecological vulnerability in the Three-River Headwater Region

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海拔/m	海拔/m
海拔/m	1956~2979	2979~3447	3447~3850	3850~4176	4176~4436	4436~4665	4665~4894	4894~5181	5181~6824
1956~2979
2979~3447	Y
3447~3850	Y	Y
3850~4176	Y	Y	Y
4176~4436	Y	Y	Y	Y
4436~4665	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y
4665~4894	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y
4894~5181	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y
5181~6824	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y
NDVI	0.262	0.378	0.564	0.536	0.405	0.322	0.277	0.207	0.149
kNDVI	0.096	0.164	0.278	0.257	0.178	0.130	0.105	0.069	0.051

因子类型		NDVI/kNDVI 适宜范围或类型	NDVI	kNDVI
自然因子	降水量	573~675 mm	0.558	0.270
	气温	-5~21 ℃	0.529	0.256
	蒸散发	168~408 mm·月^-1	0.524	0.253
	海拔	3447~3850 m	0.564	0.278
	坡向	西、西北方向	0.349	0.149
	坡度	20°~24°	0.425	0.191
	土壤类型	黄壤	0.580	0.287
人为因子	人口密度	7~47 人·km^-2	0.491	0.231
	夜间灯光	9~16 lm·m^-3	0.449	0.191
	土地利用	森林	0.581	0.292

生态脆弱性等级	NDVI		kNDVI
生态脆弱性等级	面积/km²	比例/%	面积/km²	比例/%
微度脆弱	40895	18.01	37780	16.64
轻度脆弱	51917	22.86	49569	21.83
中度脆弱	53950	23.75	56026	24.68
重度脆弱	52507	23.12	55232	24.33
极度脆弱	27856	12.26	28435	12.52

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