近60 a哈密市极端气温时空变化特征

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2022.484

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

选取哈密国家气象基准站1961—2019年日最高与最低气温气象资料，采取一元线性回归法、10 a滑动平均、Mann-Kendall法、滑动t检验和主成分分析法等方法对哈密市极端气温时空变化特征进行分析，为预测未来气温变化趋势，增强对极端气温事件的应对能力，减轻气象灾害对哈密市农业生产造成的危害提供一定依据。结果表明：（1）哈密市极端气温指数变化具有不对称性，冷暖指数变化相反，夜指数变暖幅度大于昼指数。季节上看，大部分极端气温指数在夏季、秋季变化幅度更大。（2）近60 a来哈密市极端低温事件频率显著降低，其中霜冻日数下降最为显著，下降幅度为-4.59 d·(10a)^-1;极端高温事件频率增加、强度显著增强;生长季度长与热持续指数变化幅度趋于一致，冷持续指数变化相反。（3）极端气温冷指数对气候变化更为敏感，突变发生在20世纪80年代中和90年代末，暖指数和持续指数突变时间为20世纪90年代末。（4） 2个主成分累计方差贡献率为76.453%，极端气温事件变化与气温变暖相关性较高，冷暖指数呈负相关，冷夜日数、冷昼日数、霜冻日数、暖夜日数、暖昼日数是哈密市气温升高的主要因素。

关键词: 极端气温指数, 时空变化, 突变检验, 哈密市

Abstract:

The meteorological data of the daily maximum and minimum temperatures of Hami City National Meteorological Reference Station, Xinjiang, China from 1961 to 2019 were selected to predict future temperature changes in the city. The spatiotemporal variation characteristics of extreme temperature in Hami City were analyzed using the univariate linear regression method, 10 a moving average, Mann-Kendall method, moving t test, and principal component analysis method, which provided a certain basis for determining the future temperature trend, enhancing the city’s ability to respond to extreme temperature events, and reducing the harm caused by meteorological disasters to agricultural production in Hami City. The results showed the following: (1) The change in the extreme temperature index in Hami City is asymmetric, the change in cold and warm indexes is opposite, and the warming amplitude of the night index is greater than that of the day index. Seasonally, most extreme temperature indices vary more widely in summer and autumn. (2) In the past 60 years, the frequency of extreme low-temperature events in Hami City decreased significantly, among which frost days decreased most significantly, with a decrease of -4.59 d·(10a)^-1. The frequency and intensity of extreme heat events have increased significantly. The growth season length tends to be consistent with the change of the thermal persistence index, while the change of the cold persistence index is the opposite. (3) The extreme temperature and cold indices are more sensitive to climate change. The abrupt changes occurred in the mid-1980s and the late 1990s, and the abrupt changes in the warm and persistent indices occurred in the late 1990s. (4) The cumulative variance contribution rate of the two principal components was 76.453%, the correlation between extreme temperature events and temperature warming was high, and the cold and warm index was negatively correlated. Cold nights, cold days, frost days, warm nights, and warm days were the main factors for the temperature increase in Hami City.

Key words: extreme temperature index, temporal and spatial variation, mutation test, Hami City

陈跃萍, 武胜利, 赵昕, 张艺加. 近60 a哈密市极端气温时空变化特征[J]. 干旱区地理, 2023, 46(6): 868-879.

CHEN Yueping, WU Shengli, ZHAO Xin, ZHANG Yijia. Spatial and temporal variation characteristics of extreme temperatures in Hami City in the past 60 years[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2023, 46(6): 868-879.

图/表 9

图1

表1

图2

表2

图3

图4

表3

表4

表5

参考文献 26

[1]	樊星, 秦圆圆, 高翔. IPCC第六次评估报告第一工作组报告主要结论解读及建议[J]. 环境保护, 2021, 49(增刊2): 44-48.
	[Fan Xing, Qin Yuanyuan, Gao Xiang. Interpretation of the main conclusions and suggestions of IPCC AR6 Working Group Ⅰ Report[J]. Environmental Protection, 2021, 49(Suppl. 2): 44-48.]
[2]	赵军, 师银芳, 王大为, 等. 1961-2008年中国大陆极端气温时空变化分析[J]. 干旱区资源与环境, 2012, 26(3): 52-56.
	[Zhao Jun, Shi Yinfang, Wang Dawei, et al. Temporal and spatial changes of extreme temperatures in China during 1961-2008[J]. Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment, 2012, 26(3): 52-56.]
[3]	吕婷, 武胜利, 刘强吉, 等. 1952-2013年吐鲁番市极端气温变化规律研究[J]. 干旱区研究, 2018, 35(3): 606-614.
	[Lü Ting, Wu Shengli, Liu Qiangji, et al. Variations of extreme temperature in Turpan City, Xinjiang during the period of 1952-2013[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2018, 35(3): 606-614.]
[4]	曹永强, 李维佳. 辽宁省潜在蒸散时空变化特征与成因[J]. 生态学报, 2018, 38(20): 7276-7287.
	[Cao Yongqiang, Li Weijia. Spatio-temporal distribution characteristics of potential evapotranspiration and impact factors in Liaoning Province[J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2018, 38(20): 7276-7287.]
[5]	Alexander L V, Zhang X, Peterson T C, et al. Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 2006, 111(D5): D05109, doi: 10.1029/2005JD006290. doi: 10.1029/2005JD006290
[6]	Song X, Zhang Z, Chen Y, et al. Spatiotemporal changes of global extreme temperature events (ETEs) since 1981 and the meteorological causes[J]. Natural Hazards, 2014, 70(2): 975-994. doi: 10.1007/s11069-013-0856-y
[7]	郑景云, 郝志新, 方修琦, 等. 中国过去2000年极端气候事件变化的若干特征[J]. 地理科学进展, 2014, 33(1): 3-12. doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2014.01.001
	[Zheng Jingyun, Hao Zhixin, Fang Xiuqi, et al. Changing characteristics of extreme climate events during past 2000 years in China[J]. Progress in Geograohy, 2014, 33(1): 3-12.] doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2014.01.001
[8]	王岱, 游庆龙, 江志红, 等. 中国极端气温季节变化对全球变暖减缓的响应分析[J]. 冰川冻土, 2016, 38(1): 36-46.
	[Wang Dai, You Qinglong, Jiang Zhihong, et al. Response of seasonal extreme temperatures in China to the global warming slow down[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2016, 38(1): 36-46.]
[9]	齐月, 陈海燕, 房世波, 等. 1961-2010年西北地区极端气候事件变化特征[J]. 干旱气象, 2015, 33(6): 963-969. doi: 10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639(2015)-06-0963
	[Qi Yue, Chen Haiyan, Fang Shibo, et al. Variation characteristics of extreme climate events in northwest China during 1961-2010[J]. Joumal of Arid Meteomlogy, 2015, 33(6): 963-969.] doi: 10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639(2015)-06-0963
[10]	曲姝霖, 仝纪龙, 唐睿, 等. 西北地区极端高温变化及其对气候变暖停滞的响应[J]. 气象与环境学报, 2017, 33(4): 78-85.
	[Qu Shulin, Tong Jilong, Tang Rui, et al. Changes in the extremely high temperature in northwest China and its response to the stagnation of global warming[J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2017, 33(4): 78-85.]
[11]	张慧琴, 杨艳玲, 余华. 新疆吐鲁番60 a气温变化基本特征[J]. 干旱气象, 2012, 30(4): 600-603, 634.
	[Zhang Huiqin, Yang Yanling, Yu Hua. Temperature changes characteristic of Turpan in recent 60 years[J]. Journal of Arid Meteorology, 2012, 30(4): 600-603, 634.]
[12]	魏凤英. 现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M]. 北京: 气象出版社, 2016: 58-60.
	[Wei Fengying. Modern climate statistical diagnostic and forecasting techniques[M]. Beijing: China Meteorological Press, 2016: 58-60.]
[13]	张延伟, 葛全胜, 姜逢清, 等. 北疆地区1961-2010年极端气温事件变化特征[J]. 地理科学, 2016, 36(2): 296-302. doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.02.017
	[Zhang Yanwei, Ge Quansheng, Jiang Fengqing, et al. Evolution characteristics of the extreme high and low temperature event in north Xinjiang in 1961-2010[J]. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2016, 36(2): 296-302.] doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.02.017
[14]	高婧, 李胜楠, 井立红, 等. 新疆塔城地区极端气温变化特征及其影响因子分析[J]. 干旱区地理, 2021, 44(2): 346-359.
	[Gao Jing, Li Shengnan, Jing Lihong, et al. Varialility characteristics of extreme temperature and its influencing factors in Tacheng Prefecture, Xinjiang[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2021, 44(2): 346-359.]
[15]	丁之勇, 葛拥晓, 吉力力·阿不都外力. 北疆地区近53年极端气温事件及其影响因素分析[J]. 地球环境学报, 2018, 9(2): 159-171.
	[Ding Zhiyong, Ge Yongxiao, Abuduwaili Jilili. Spatiotemporal variation characteristics of extreme temperature and its influencing factors in recent 53 years in northern Xinjiang, China[J]. Journal of Earth Environment, 2018, 9(2): 159-171.]
[16]	赵明玉, 武胜利, 任耀军, 等. 近58 a新疆巴州极端气温事件变化特征[J]. 干旱区地理, 2020, 43(3): 612-622.
	[Zhao Mingyu, Wu Shengli, Ren Yaojun, et al. Variation characteristics of extreme temperature events in Bayingolin Mongol Autonomous Prefecture, Xinjiang in recent 58 years[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2020, 43(3): 612-622.]
[17]	Wang B, Zhang M, Wei J, et al. Changes in extreme events of temperature and precipitation over Xinjiang, northwest China, during 1960-2009[J]. Quaternary International, 2013, 298: 141-151. doi: 10.1016/j.quaint.2012.09.010
[18]	You Q L, Kang S C, Aguilar E, et al. Changes in daily climate extremes in the eastern and central Tibetan Plateau during 1961-2005[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 2008, 113: D07101, doi: 10.1029/2007jd009389. doi: 10.1029/2007jd009389
[19]	Wang Q, Wang M, Fan X, et al. Trends of temperature and precipitation extremes in the Loess Plateau region of China, 1961-2010[J]. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 2017, 129(3): 949-963. doi: 10.1007/s00704-016-1820-z
[20]	汪宝龙. 1960-2009年新疆极端气温和降水事件的变化研究[D]. 兰州: 西北师范大学, 2013.
	[Wang Baolong. Study in extreme events of temperature and precipitation over Xinjiang, northwest China during 1960-2009[D]. Lanzhou: Northwest Normal University, 2013.]
[21]	任国玉, 封国林, 严中伟. 中国极端气候变化观测研究回顾与展望[J]. 气候与环境研究, 2010, 15(4): 337-353.
	[Ren Guoyu, Feng Guolin, Yan Zhongwei. Progresses in observation studies of climate extremes and changes in mainland China[J]. Climatic and Environmental Research, 2010, 15(4): 337-353.]
[22]	徐用兵, 雷秋良, 周脚根, 等. 1960-2015年云南省极端气候指数变化特征研究[J]. 中国农业资源与区划, 2020, 41(11): 15-27.
	[Xu Yongbing, Lei Qiuliang, Zhou Jiaogen, et al. Study on the change characteristics of extreme climate indices from 1960 to 2015 in Yunnan Province, China[J]. Chinese Journal of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, 2020, 41(11): 15-27.]
[23]	周雅清, 任国玉. 城市化对华北地区极端气温事件频率的影响[J]. 高原气象, 2014, 33(6): 1589-1598. doi: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2013.00153
	[Zhou Yaqing, Ren Guoyu. Urbanization effect on long-term trends of extreme temperature events in north China[J]. Plateau Meteorology, 2014, 33(6): 1589-1598.] doi: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2013.00153
[24]	张强, 韩永翔, 宋连春. 全球气候变化及其影响因素研究进展综述[J]. 地球科学进展, 2005, 20(9): 990-998. doi: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2005.09.0990
	[Zhang Qiang, Han Yongxiang, Song Lianchun. The summarize of development of global climate change and its effect factors[J]. Advances in Earth Science, 2005, 20(9): 990-998.] doi: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2005.09.0990
[25]	齐贵英. 近47年阿勒泰地区云量气候变化特征分析[J]. 安徽农学通报, 2010, 16(18): 153-155.
	[Qi Guiying. Analysis on variation characteristics of the cloudiness in recent 47 years in Aletai area[J]. Anhui Agricultural Science Bulletin, 2010, 16(18): 153-155.]
[26]	任景全, 郭春明, 刘玉汐, 等. 1961-2015年吉林省极端气温指数时空变化特征[J]. 生态学杂志, 2017, 36(11): 3224-3234.
	[Ren Jingquan, Guo Chunming, Liu Yuxi, et al. Spatiotemporal change characteristics of extreme temperature indices in Jilin Province during 1961-2015[J]. Chinese Journal of Ecology, 2017, 36(11): 3224-3234.]

分类	指数	代码	单位	定义
冷指数	霜冻日数	FD0	d	一年中日最低气温<0 ℃的日数
	冷夜日数	TN10P	d	日最低气温<10%分位值的日数
	冷昼日数	TX10P	d	日最高气温<10%分位值的日数
	冰冻日数	ID0	d	日最高气温<0 ℃的日数
	日最低气温极低值	TNn	℃	年日最低气温的最小值
	日最高气温极低值	TXn	℃	年日最高气温的最小值
暖指数	夏日日数	SU25	d	日最高气温>25 ℃的日数
	暖夜日数	TN90P	d	日最低气温>90%分位值的日数
	暖昼日数	TX90P	d	日最高气温>90%分位值的日数
	热夜日数	TR20	d	日最低气温>20 ℃的日数
	日最低气温极高值	TNx	℃	年日最低气温的最大值
	日最高气温极高值	TXx	℃	年日最高气温的最大值
持续指数	生长季度长	GSL	d	连续6 d>5 ℃或<5 ℃的时间跨度
	冷持续指数	CSDI	d	连续6 d最低气温在10%分位值的日数
	热持续指数	WSDI	d	连续6 d最高气温在90%分位值的日数

指数	年	春季	夏季	秋季	冬季
TNn/℃·(10a)^-1	0.65^*	0.57^*	0.67^*	0.58^*	0.70^*
TXn/℃·(10a)^-1	0.30	0.19	0.33^*	0.36^*	0.29^*
TX10P/d·(10a)^-1	-1.16^*	-0.94^*	-1.33^*	-1.10^*	-1.11^*
TN10P/d·(10a)^-1	-1.90^*	-1.71^*	-2.14^*	-2.06^*	-1.68^*
TXx/℃·(10a)^-1	4.12^*	0.32^*	0.28^*	0.26^*	0.32^*
TNx/℃·(10a)^-1	0.53^*	0.49^*	0.53^*	0.55^*	0.46^*
TX90P/d·(10a)^-1	1.76^*	1.65^*	3.00^*	1.33^*	1.09^*
TN90P/d·(10a)^-1	3.85^*	3.98^*	5.35^*	3.25^*	2.54^*

指数	哈密市	天山地区^[15]	巴州地区^[16]	阿勒泰地区^[3]	新疆^[17]	青藏高原^[18]	黄土高原^[19]	全球^[5]
FD0/d·(10a)^-1	-4.59^*	-3.66^**	-3.17^*	-0.44	-3.69^**	-4.32^*	-3.46^*	-
TN10P/d·(10a)^-1	-1.90^*	-3.56^**	-3.55^**	-0.36^*	-6.57^**	-2.38^*	-1.86^*	-1.26^*
TX10P/d·(10a)^-1	-1.16^*	-1.23^**	-1.30^**	-0.15^*	-2.60^**	-0.85^*	-0.95^*	-0.62^*
ID0/d·(10a)^-1	-1.09	-1.16	-0.30	-0.17	-1.61^*	-2.46^*	-	-
TNn/℃·(10a)^-1	0.65^*	0.62^**	0.36^*	0.06	-	0.69^*	0.44^*	0.71^*
TXn/℃·(10a)^-1	0.31	0.29	0.17	0.04	-	0.30^*	0.19	0.37
SU25/d·(10a)^-1	3.51^*	1.59^**	1.88^**	-	2.14^**	-	-	-
TN90P/d·(10a)^-1	3.85^*	3.67^**	4.67^**	0.33^*	6.23^**	1.58^*	1.80^*	1.58^*
TX90P/d·(10a)^-1	1.76^*	1.73^**	2.76^**	0.14^*	3.59^*	1.26^*	1.93^*	0.89^*
TR20/d·(10a)^-1	4.06^*	1.59^*	2.66^**	-	1.71^**	-	-	-
TXx/℃·(10a)^-1	4.12^*	0.09	0.26^**	0.18	-	0.28^*	0.63^*	0.21^*
TNx/℃·(10a)^-1	0.53^*	0.34^**	0.41^**	0.05^*	-	0.25^*	0.39^*	0.30^*
GSL/d·(10a)^-1	3.52^*	2.94^**	2.60^**	0.33^*	2.74^**	4.25^*	3.76^*	-
CSDI/d·(10a)^-1	-0.77^*	-1.61^**	0.90	-	-1.27^**	-	-	-
WSDI/d·(10a)^-1	2.85^*	0.95^*	1.73^**	-	0.88^**	-	-	-

指数	主成分1	主成分2
FD0	-0.927	-0.103
TN10P	-0.889	0.226
TX10P	-0.843	0.272
ID0	-0.426	0.608
TNn	0.613	-0.664
TXn	0.383	-0.822
SU25	0.875	0.298
TN90P	0.922	0.190
TX90P	0.892	0.135
TR20	0.874	0.363
TNx	0.791	0.161
TXx	0.876	0.363
GSL	0.816	0.148
CSDI	-0.481	0.520
WSDI	0.752	0.170
主成分特征值	9.092	2.376
主成分方差贡献率/%	60.614	15.839

指数	FD0	TN10P	TX10P	ID0	TNn	TXn	SU25	TN90P
FD0	1.000
TN10P	0.809^**	1.000
TX10P	0.755^**	0.862^**	1.000
ID0	0.293^*	0.483^**	0.513^**	1.000
TNn	-0.516^**	-0.643^**	-0.589^**	-0.549^**	1.000
TXn	-0.275^*	-0.459^**	-0.455^**	-0.516^**	0.912^**	1.000
SU25	-0.813^**	-0.707^**	-0.719^**	-0.156	0.316^*	0.097	1.000
TN90P	-0.883^**	-0.813^**	-0.689^**	-0.337^**	0.424^**	0.180	0.834^**	1.000
TX90P	-0.846^**	-0.661^**	-0.653^**	-0.443^**	0.454^**	0.232	0.818^**	0.839^**
TR20	-0.788^**	-0.726^**	-0.620^**	-0.101	0.328^*	0.062	0.854^**	0.878^**
TNx	-0.665^**	-0.612^**	-0.493^**	-0.247	0.470^**	0.229	0.726^**	0.739^**
TXx	-0.790^**	-0.725^**	-0.624^**	-0.103	0.328^*	0.062	0.856^**	0.879^**
GSL	-0.857^**	-0.671^**	-0.743^**	-0.199	0.365^**	0.174	0.742^**	0.771^**
CSDI	0.344^**	0.627^**	0.641^**	0.370^**	-0.472^**	-0.481^**	-0.300^*	-0.318^*
WSDI	-0.733^**	-0.508^**	-0.477^**	-0.290^*	0.385^**	0.203	0.628^**	0.643^**
指数	TX90P	TR20	TNx	TXx	GSL	CSDI	WSDI
TX90P	1.000
TR20	0.759^**	1.000
TNx	0.735^**	0.787^**	1.000
TXx	0.762^**	1.000^**	0.792^**	1.000
GSL	0.739^**	0.667^**	0.494^**	0.671^**	1.000
CSDI	-0.255^*	-0.272^*	-0.249	-0.274^*	-0.317^*	1.000
WSDI	0.812^**	0.661^**	0.619^**	0.662^**	0.638^**	-0.174	1.000