新疆水资源与农业种植系统耦合协调及时空差异研究——以粮食和棉花种植系统为例

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2022.315

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为研究新疆水资源状况与农业种植发展的耦合协调性及时空差异性，以新疆粮食和棉花种植系统为例并基于2005—2019年14个地州的水资源、农业种植相关数据，运用熵值法、耦合协调度模型和探索性空间数据分析对水资源系统、农业种植系统的综合发展指数及水资源-农业种植复合系统（简称“复合系统”）的耦合协调度与时空演化规律进行测算研究。结果表明：（1）新疆复合系统综合发展指数在空间上表现出“中轴高，两翼低”的特征，其中水资源系统整体水平较高，农业种植系统增长趋势更快。（2）新疆复合系统耦合协调水平总体呈现出“北高南低，但差距逐渐缩小”的发展趋势，并且因区域差异致使农业种植系统逐渐成为阻碍复合系统耦合协调发展的短板。（3）新疆复合系统的耦合协调度存在显著的空间集聚特征，但其正相关性则表现出由强减弱的变化态势。研究结果对新疆水资源可持续利用与农业种植系统产业的良性协调发展具有理论实践意义。

关键词: 水资源-农业种植复合系统, 耦合协调度, 探索性空间数据分析, 时空差异, 新疆

Abstract:

This study takes the grain and cotton cropping systems as an example to measure the development level of the water resource and agricultural cropping systems in Xinjiang, China to study its water resource endowment and agriculture industry development, respectively. Additionally, the two systems are combined to further analyze the coupling coordination and spatiotemporal differences of the water resources-agriculture cropping composite system (abbreviated composite system) in Xinjiang. Therefore, data related to water resources and agriculture cropping of 14 prefectures in Xinjiang from 2005 to 2019 were selected to measure the comprehensive development index of water resources, agriculture cropping, and composite systems using the entropy method. On the basis of the comprehensive development index of the composite system, this study further explores the coupling coordination trend and spatiotemporal evolution law of the composite system using the coupling coordination degree model and exploratory spatial data analysis, respectively. The following results are presented. (1) The comprehensive development index of the composite system in Xinjiang is spatially characterized by “high in the middle and low on both sides”. Among them, the level of comprehensive development index of the water resources system is higher than that of the agriculture cropping system and the growth trend of the agricultural plantation system is fast. Comparing the results of the composite development index of water resources and agriculture cropping systems from 2005 to 2019, this study found that the former has been developing at a higher level than the latter during the study period. However, the latter showed a faster growth trend than the former, resulting in a gradual reduction in the gap between the two systems. (2) The overall level of coupling coordination of composite systems in Xinjiang shows a development trend of “high in the north and low in the south, but the gap is gradually decreasing”. Additionally, the agriculture cropping system has gradually become a shortcoming that hinders the development of the coupling coordination of composite systems due to the differences among regions. (3) A significant spatial clustering characteristic of the coupling coordination degree of the composite system is also observed in Xinjiang, but its positive correlation shows a changing trend from strong to weak. The spatial clustering type is mainly “high-high and low-low” clustering, and the coupling coordination degree of the composite system shows spillover effects and is easily influenced by the neighboring areas. The results of this study have theoretical and practical implications for the sustainable use of water resources, the development of the agriculture cropping industry, and the benign coordination of the two in Xinjiang.

Key words: water resources-agriculture cropping composite system, coupling coordination degree, exploratory spatial data analysis, spatiotemporal differences, Xinjiang

张宁,汪子晨,杨肖,陈彤,邢飞. 新疆水资源与农业种植系统耦合协调及时空差异研究——以粮食和棉花种植系统为例[J]. 干旱区地理, 2023, 46(3): 349-359.

ZHANG Ning,WANG Zichen,YANG Xiao,CHEN Tong,XING Fei. Coupling coordination and spatiotemporal differences between water resources and agriculture cropping system in Xinjiang: A case of grain and cotton cropping systems[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2023, 46(3): 349-359.

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子系统	一级指标	二级指标	数据来源	属性	权重
水资源	水资源禀赋	人均水资源量/m³	统计年鉴获取	+	0.13
	水资源禀赋	人均用水量/m³	统计年鉴获取	-	0.09
	水资源利用	第一产业用水占比/%	第一产业用水量/总用水量	-	0.12
		生活用水占比/%	生活用水量/总用水量	+	0.10
		生态环境用水占比/%	生态环境用水量/总用水量	+	0.11
		万元GDP用水量/m³·(10⁴元)^-1	地区GDP/总用水量	-	0.12
		地下水供水占比/%	地下水供水量/总用水量	-	0.11
		中水利用量/10⁹ m³	统计年鉴获取	+	0.09
		水资源开发利用率/%	总用水量/水资源总量	-	0.12
农业种植	种植投入	第一产业固定资产投资/10⁴元	统计年鉴获取	+	0.10
		化肥施用强度/t·hm^-2	化肥施用量/耕地面积	-	0.10
		劳均农作物播种面积/hm²·人^-1	农作物播种面积/农业从业人员数	+	0.12
		农业机械化水平/kW·hm^-2	农业机械化总动力/耕地面积	+	0.11
		有效灌溉面积/10³ hm²	统计年鉴获取	+	0.12
		水土流失治理面积/10³ hm²	统计年鉴获取	+	0.09
	种植产出	劳均农业总产值/10⁴元·人^-1	农业总产值/农业从业人员数	+	0.13
		单位面积粮食产量/kg·hm^-2	统计年鉴获取	+	0.13
		单位面积棉花产量/kg·hm^-2	统计年鉴获取	+	0.11

协调程度	耦合协调度（D）	协调适配阶段
失调衰退区间	[0.0, 0.1]	极度失调衰退
	(0.1, 0.2]	严重失调衰退
	(0.2, 0.3]	中度失调衰退
	(0.3, 0.4]	轻度失调衰退
协调过渡区间	(0.4, 0.5]	濒临失调衰退
	(0.5, 0.6]	勉强协调发展
协调发展区间	(0.6, 0.7]	初级协调发展
	(0.7, 0.8]	中级协调发展
	(0.8, 0.9]	良好协调发展
	(0.9, 1.0]	优质协调发展

年份	Moran’s I	P值	Z值	sd
2005	0.419	0.010	2.894	0.173
2006	0.348	0.018	2.471	0.173
2007	0.288	0.031	1.971	0.171
2008	0.235	0.032	1.977	0.169
2009	0.280	0.030	2.127	0.171
2010	0.257	0.032	1.997	0.171
2011	0.334	0.016	2.465	0.169
2012	0.258	0.040	2.030	0.167
2013	0.236	0.040	1.973	0.163
2014	0.312	0.018	2.362	0.165
2015	0.300	0.022	2.365	0.161
2016	0.287	0.020	2.301	0.160
2017	0.326	0.018	2.461	0.165
2018	0.322	0.023	2.102	0.166
2019	0.311	0.016	2.357	0.165