1990—2020年新疆用水量时空演化格局及影响因素分析

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2023.636

干旱区地理 ›› 2024, Vol. 47 ›› Issue (9): 1451-1461.doi: 10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2023.636

• 第三次新疆综合科学考察 • 上一篇下一篇

1990—2020年新疆用水量时空演化格局及影响因素分析

刘慧¹^,²(), 孙思奥¹^,²(), 方创琳¹^,², 周迪³, 鲍超¹^,²

1.中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所区域可持续发展与模拟重点实验室，北京 100101
2.中国科学院大学，北京 100049
3.江苏远瀚建筑设计有限公司，江苏常州 213003

收稿日期:2023-11-09 修回日期:2024-04-16 出版日期:2024-09-25 发布日期:2024-09-24
通讯作者: 孙思奥（1983-），女，博士，研究员，主要从事城市水资源与可持续发展研究. E-mail: suns@igsnrr.ac.cn
作者简介:刘慧（1999-），女，博士研究生，主要从事城市水资源管理研究. E-mail: liuhui0026@igsnrr.ac.cn
基金资助:
第三次新疆综合科学考察项目(2021xjkk0901);国家自然科学基金项目(42222101)

Spatiotemporal evolutionary patterns and influencing factors of water use in Xinjiang from 1990 to 2020

LIU Hui¹^,²(), SUN Siao¹^,²(), FANG Chuanglin¹^,², ZHOU Di³, BAO Chao¹^,²

1. Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
3. Jiangsu Yuanhan Architectural Design Co., Ltd., Changzhou 213003, Jiangsu, China

Received:2023-11-09 Revised:2024-04-16 Published:2024-09-25 Online:2024-09-24

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

干旱缺水是新疆自然地理的基本特征，理解用水时空演化格局及其影响因素是水资源需求管理的前提。采用对数均值迪氏指数（LMDI）方法，解析1990—2020年新疆用水量时间变化趋势和空间差异格局的影响因素，并分析其人均用水量高于中国西北其他地区和全国平均水平的主要原因。结果表明：（1）新疆用水总量先升后降，人均用水量整体呈现下降趋势。（2）用水强度和产业结构变化是促使新疆用水总量下降的主要原因。（3）较高的用水强度和以农业为主导的产业结构是新疆人均用水量远高于中国西北其他地区和全国平均水平的主要原因。（4）新疆人均用水量空间差异大，主要原因是用水强度、人均GDP和产业结构差异。基于研究结果，提出了相关用水管理政策建议，为新疆水资源可持续开发利用提供科学参考。

关键词: 水资源管理, 对数平均迪氏指数（LMDI）方法, 水资源开发, 空间分异, 新疆

Abstract:

Drought and water scarcity are inherent features of Xinjiang’s physical geography. It is crucial to understand the spatiotemporal evolutionary patterns and influencing factors of water use for effective water resources demand management. In this study, we investigated the influencing factors which drive the temporal change and spatial heterogeneity in water use pattern in Xinjiang from 1990 to 2020 using the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) method. In addition, we quantified the main influencing factors contributing to higher per capita water use in Xinjiang in comparison to the average levels of other regions in northwest China and whole China. The conclusions can be drawn: (1) The total water use in Xinjiang showed a first increasing then decreasing trend, whereas per capita water use showed an overall declining trend. (2) The change of water use intensity and industrial structure were the main reasons for the decline of total water use in Xinjiang. (3) High water intensity and agriculture dominated industrial structure were the main reasons for higher per capita water use in Xinjiang than other regions in northwest China and whole China. (4) Per capita water use across various prefectures in Xinjiang exhibited significant spatial heterogeneity, primarily attributable to variations in water use intensity, per capita GDP, and industrial structure. Based on the main results, we propose relevant water management policy recommendations, which can provide a scientific reference for sustainable water use and management in Xinjiang.

Key words: water resources management, logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) method, water resources exploitation, spatial heterogeneity, Xinjiang

刘慧, 孙思奥, 方创琳, 周迪, 鲍超. 1990—2020年新疆用水量时空演化格局及影响因素分析[J]. 干旱区地理, 2024, 47(9): 1451-1461.

LIU Hui, SUN Siao, FANG Chuanglin, ZHOU Di, BAO Chao. Spatiotemporal evolutionary patterns and influencing factors of water use in Xinjiang from 1990 to 2020[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2024, 47(9): 1451-1461.

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指标	用水强度	产业结构	人均GDP	人口	人均居民生活用水量	生态环境用水量	用水总量变化量
累计效应/10⁸ m³	-833.4	-414.4	1062.3	250.6	8.7	20.9	94.8
累计贡献率/%	-879.1	-437.1	1120.6	264.4	9.2	22.0	100.0

组别	年份	效应/m³（贡献率/%）					人均用水量差异/m³
组别	年份	用水强度	产业结构	人均GDP	人均居民生活用水量	人均生态环境用水量	人均用水量差异/m³
新疆-西北其他地区	2004	1338.7（64.1）	341.7（16.4）	304.4（14.6）	5.2（0.2）	98.0（4.7）	2087.9
新疆-西北其他地区	2020	1383.2（76.5）	325.5（18.0）	19.9（1.1）	23.6（1.3）	56.5（3.1）	1808.7
新疆-全国	2004	1822.2（87.9）	425.1（20.5）	-261.8（-12.6）	-5.4（-0.3）	93.0（4.5）	2073.1
新疆-全国	2020	1425.7（80.2）	525.5（29.6）	-248.5（-14.0）	12.7（0.7）	61.3（3.5）	1776.7

地州市	2004年						2020年
地州市	用水强度	产业结构	人均 GDP	人均居民生活用水量	人均生态环境用水量	人均用水量差异	用水强度	产业结构	人均 GDP	人均居民生活用水量	人均生态环境用水量	人均用水量差异
乌鲁木齐市	-169.6	-2251.6	298.8	17.7	-92.1	-2196.7	-279.2	-1891.1	287.4	-4.4	-48.3	-1935.6
克拉玛依市	512.5	-4396.0	2143.4	51.1	227.8	-1461.2	-657.5	-2140.5	1426.5	-3.7	210.6	-1164.7
吐鲁番市	-1419.3	289.8	758.4	6.8	-49.2	-413.6	-612.2	214.4	-36.9	-13.5	89.8	-358.4
哈密市	800.2	-878.9	-335.6	-10.9	-62.0	-487.2	-782.4	-914.3	753.0	-1.8	31.3	-914.3
昌吉州	-932.1	863.7	-249.3	0.5	-93.3	-410.4	-1196.6	412.3	954.3	15.2	-21.7	163.5
博州	-958.5	1821.5	-113.9	1.9	-99.6	651.3	-699.0	1069.8	896.9	-7.5	7.0	1267.1
巴州	-306.3	-360.2	1578.3	14.2	37.2	963.3	-85.7	296.7	531.5	11.5	114.6	868.5
阿克苏地区	1770.9	2020.6	-1667.3	-0.6	-95.9	2027.6	819.2	1417.6	-361.2	-24.3	-51.4	1799.9
克州	240.7	731.6	-1789.0	-13.1	-91.3	-921.1	1317.4	-529.5	-1264.1	7.6	167.7	-301.0
喀什地区	1375.6	1943.1	-2945.9	-14.0	-71.8	287.0	588.9	1503.0	-1731.0	7.8	-1.9	366.8
和田地区	838.8	1714.5	-2960.7	-21.7	56.2	-373.0	1237.7	457.7	-2182.6	-12.4	-8.8	-508.4
伊犁州直	209.5	833.6	-1298.0	6.0	-48.5	-297.4	-249.8	409.9	-406.3	17.4	-67.6	-296.5
塔城地区	-1282.4	1235.3	-414.3	-7.6	20.7	-448.3	-1769.6	2617.8	436.0	13.6	36.3	1334.2
阿勒泰地区	1805.7	1585.4	-584.6	1.5	1543.9	4351.9	2268.9	605.4	-293.7	-4.4	69.5	2645.7
石河子市	3809.8	-1932.3	-1195.3	28.0	-51.8	658.4	281.7	-1748.1	370.4	0.5	51.0	-1044.4

1990—2020年新疆用水量时空演化格局及影响因素分析

Spatiotemporal evolutionary patterns and influencing factors of water use in Xinjiang from 1990 to 2020

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