新疆农业碳排放的时空差异与空间溢出效应分析

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2023.344

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

通过测算2007—2020年新疆13个地州市的农业碳排放总量与强度，利用基尼系数分解法揭示新疆农业碳排放强度的区域差异，采用空间杜宾模型考察新疆农业碳排放强度的空间溢出效应与驱动因素。研究表明：（1）考察期内新疆农业碳排放总量的演变特征大致分为3个阶段：快速上升、持续下降和平稳上升。最大的碳源是秸秆燃烧，其次是禽畜养殖。考察期内农业碳排放强度表现出明显的下降趋势。（2）考察期初与期末农业碳排放强度表现较大空间差异，呈现出“北低南高”的特征。基于碳排放构成的差异可将新疆划分为5类不同地区。新疆整体、北疆和南疆地区农业碳排放强度的基尼系数均呈现波动下降趋势，区域间差异对总体差异的贡献最大。（3）考察期内新疆农业碳排放强度呈现显著的空间集聚现象，且各地州市间农业碳排放强度的空间联系程度随时间推移变得更加紧密。新疆农业碳排放主要受市场和政府的双重影响，从市场层面来说，产业聚集、农业产业结构、农业发展水平以及种植结构与农业碳排放强度呈现显著正相关，具有显著的区域间溢出效应。从政府层面分析，环境治理水平和地区灾害发生面积与农业碳排放强度具有显著的负相关关系。

关键词: 农业碳排放强度, 区域差异, 空间溢出效应, 空间杜宾模型, 新疆

Abstract:

This paper evaluates the total amount and intensity of agricultural carbon emissions across 13 prefectures in Xinjiang, China from 2007 to 2020. It employs the Gini coefficient decomposition method to examine regional disparities in the intensity of agricultural carbon emissions in Xinjiang and utilizes the spatial Durbin model to assess the spatial spillover effects and driving factors of these emissions. The findings indicate that the evolution of total agricultural carbon emissions in Xinjiang during the study period can be categorized into three phases: a rapid increase, a continuous decline, and a steady rise, with straw burning being the predominant source of emissions, followed by livestock farming. The intensity of agricultural carbon emissions exhibited a pronounced downward trend throughout the period. Spatial disparities in the intensity of emissions at the beginning and end of the study period were substantial, characterized by lower levels in the north and higher levels in the south. Based on emission composition, Xinjiang can be classified into five distinct regional types. The Gini coefficients for the intensity of agricultural carbon emissions in Xinjiang as a whole, and specifically in its northern and southern parts, demonstrated a fluctuating downward trend, with inter-regional differences accounting for the majority of the overall disparities. Furthermore, there was a significant spatial agglomeration of emission intensity during the study period, with increasing spatial linkages among cities and towns over time. The primary influences on agricultural carbon emissions in Xinjiang were market and governmental factors. At the market level, factors such as industrial agglomeration, agricultural industry structure, agricultural development level, and planting structure were significantly positively correlated with emission intensity, accompanied by notable inter-regional spillover effects. From a governmental perspective, the level of environmental governance and the extent of regional disasters exhibited a significant negative correlation with the intensity of agricultural carbon emissions.

Key words: agricultural carbon emission intensity, regional differences, spatial spillover effect, spatial Durbin model, Xinjiang

夏文浩, 霍瑜, 逯渊, 王超毅. 新疆农业碳排放的时空差异与空间溢出效应分析[J]. 干旱区地理, 2024, 47(6): 1084-1096.

XIA Wenhao, HUO Yu, LU Yuan, WANG Chaoyi. Spatialtemporal differences and spatial spillover effects of agricultural carbon emissions in Xinjiang[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2024, 47(6): 1084-1096.

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变量	符号	样本量	均值	标准差	最小值	最大值
农业碳排放强度	lnEI	182	1.36	0.60	0.24	3.32
农业产业集聚	lnALQ	182	1.12	0.59	0.04	3.11
农业产业结构	lnAIS	182	0.94	0.03	0.84	0.98
农业发展水平	lnAGDP	182	3.41	2.81	0.40	16.32
种植结构	lnPS	182	0.42	0.19	0.03	0.79
农村居民人均纯收入	lnRI	182	0.92	0.52	0.08	2.28
水土流失治理面积	lnSEC	182	64.89	61.90	1.40	301.40
灾害发生面积	lnDA	182	96.43	129.70	2.18	606.90

年份	农资利用		水稻种植		秸秆燃烧		禽畜养殖		总量 /10⁴ t	强度 /10⁴t·元^-1
年份	排放量/10⁴ t	比重/%	排放量/10⁴ t	比重/%	排放量/10⁴ t	比重/%	排放量/10⁴ t	比重/%	总量 /10⁴ t	强度 /10⁴t·元^-1
2007	391.50	18.96	27.88	1.35	952.07	46.11	693.31	33.58	2064.76	1.92
2008	444.27	21.23	30.41	1.45	1067.06	50.99	550.98	26.33	2092.72	1.75
2009	471.66	20.93	34.00	1.51	1191.67	52.87	556.47	24.69	2253.80	1.71
2010	493.20	21.00	32.30	1.38	1272.55	54.19	550.08	23.43	2348.13	1.25
2011	531.78	21.12	34.62	1.38	1399.41	55.59	551.58	21.91	2517.40	1.27
2012	546.71	20.03	37.02	1.36	1540.76	56.45	604.82	22.16	2729.31	1.18
2013	581.86	20.09	38.85	1.34	1657.09	57.23	617.85	21.34	2895.65	1.13
2014	671.71	22.02	36.30	1.19	1700.00	55.73	642.59	21.06	3050.59	1.10
2015	687.56	21.64	32.01	1.01	1803.01	56.75	654.69	20.61	3177.27	1.12
2016	707.84	23.86	33.10	1.12	1578.06	53.19	648.06	21.84	2967.07	0.99
2017	690.01	23.27	29.41	0.99	1593.03	53.72	652.94	22.02	2965.39	0.96
2018	661.03	22.28	35.42	1.19	1656.88	55.85	613.38	20.68	2966.71	0.81
2019	639.68	21.01	26.10	0.86	1673.16	54.96	705.37	23.17	3044.30	0.78
2020	611.87	19.76	21.51	0.69	1730.67	55.90	731.98	23.64	3096.03	1.10
累计增速/%	56.29		-22.85		81.78		5.58		49.95	-42.71
平均增速/%	4.33		-1.76		6.29		0.43		3.84	-3.29

地州市	2007年				2020年				总量变动率/%	强度变动率/%
地州市	总量/10⁴ t	排名	强度/10⁴t·元^-1	排名	总量/10⁴ t	排名	强度/10⁴t·元^-1	排名	总量变动率/%	强度变动率/%
乌鲁木齐市	26.57	11	1.40	9	27.78	12	0.66	12	4.55	-53.86
昌吉州	166.72	5	1.39	10	221.68	5	0.90	7	32.97	-35.25
吐鲁番市	17.25	13	0.65	13	23.04	13	0.24	13	33.57	-63.08
哈密市	20.64	12	1.30	11	37.17	11	0.69	11	80.10	-46.92
伊犁州直	562.40	1	2.90	2	455.80	1	1.39	2	-18.95	-52.07
塔城地区	186.09	4	2.31	5	360.48	4	1.33	3	93.71	-42.42
阿勒泰地区	88.99	8	2.85	3	154.78	7	1.32	4	73.93	-53.68
博州	55.79	9	2.09	7	108.78	9	1.16	6	94.98	-44.50
巴州	117.76	7	1.29	12	189.96	6	0.71	10	61.31	-44.96
阿克苏地区	233.52	3	2.21	6	395.17	3	0.83	8	69.22	-62.44
克州	38.38	10	3.32	1	55.55	10	1.26	5	44.74	-62.05
喀什地区	333.38	2	1.93	8	438.87	2	0.76	9	31.64	-60.62
和田地区	133.99	6	2.59	4	113.35	8	1.46	1	-15.40	-43.63

类型	地州市	农资利用		水稻种植		秸秆燃烧		禽畜养殖
类型	地州市	数量/10⁴ t	比重/%	数量/10⁴ t	比重/%	数量/10⁴ t	比重/%	数量/10⁴ t	比重/%
禽畜养殖主导型	乌鲁木齐市	7.91	28.48	3.84	13.83	2.61	9.40	13.41	48.29
	阿勒泰地区	28.55	18.45	0.07	0.05	50.85	32.85	75.31	48.66
	克州	7.40	13.32	0.45	0.81	19.28	34.71	28.42	51.16
秸秆燃烧主导型	昌吉州	60.68	27.37	0.12	0.05	117.11	52.83	43.78	19.75
	塔城地区	74.29	20.61	0.06	0.02	228.74	63.45	57.39	15.92
	博州	25.54	23.48	0.06	0.06	63.65	58.51	19.54	17.96
	巴州	56.35	29.66	0.28	0.15	86.61	45.59	46.72	24.59
	阿克苏地区	111.03	28.10	6.62	1.68	201.93	51.10	75.60	19.13
	喀什地区	126.63	28.85	1.25	0.28	237.51	54.12	73.48	16.74
秸秆燃烧-禽畜养殖主导型	和田地区	24.62	21.72	1.87	1.65	51.68	45.59	35.18	31.04
秸秆燃烧-禽畜养殖主导型	伊犁州直	68.85	15.11	6.89	1.51	216.62	47.53	163.44	35.86
农资利用主导型	吐鲁番市	10.21	44.30	0.00	0.00	4.75	20.61	8.09	35.10
均衡型	哈密市	9.81	26.39	0.00	0.00	11.55	31.07	15.81	42.53

年份	地理距离空间权重矩阵			经济距离空间权重矩阵
年份	Moran’s I	Z	P值	Moran’s I	Z	P值
2007	0.105^***	2.645	0.008	0.168^**	2.205	0.013
2008	0.112^***	2.783	0.005	0.100^***	2.418	0.008
2009	0.102^***	2.700	0.007	0.177^***	2.282	0.009
2010	0.080^**	2.274	0.023	0.074^***	2.339	0.007
2011	0.077^**	2.200	0.028	0.039^**	2.058	0.021
2012	0.092^**	2.427	0.015	0.073^**	2.267	0.012
2013	0.057^**	1.996	0.046	0.091^***	2.354	0.010
2014	0.056^**	2.043	0.041	0.054^***	2.542	0.005
2015	0.072^**	2.290	0.022	0.087^***	2.643	0.003
2016	0.064^**	2.240	0.025	0.093^***	2.675	0.003
2017	0.050^**	2.148	0.032	0.062^***	2.855	0.001
2018	0.006	1.356	0.175	0.083^***	2.253	0.008
2019	-0.012	1.083	0.279	0.003	1.458	0.135
2020	0.015	1.547	0.122	0.011	1.265	0.176