基于生态位与Lotka-Volterra模型的内蒙古生态安全状况研究

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.709

干旱区地理 ›› 2025, Vol. 48 ›› Issue (11): 1995-2004.doi: 10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.709 cstr: 32274.14.ALG2024709

基于生态位与Lotka-Volterra模型的内蒙古生态安全状况研究

李雪敏¹(), 王菲菲¹, 武振国²(), 张耘恺¹, 潘越明¹

1.内蒙古财经大学财政税务学院，内蒙古呼和浩特 010070
2.内蒙古自治区社会科学院，内蒙古呼和浩特 010010

收稿日期:2024-11-20 修回日期:2025-03-29 出版日期:2025-11-25 发布日期:2025-11-26
通讯作者: 武振国（1985-），男，硕士，研究员，主要从事生态经济学和区域经济学研究. E-mail: skywuzg@163.com
作者简介:李雪敏（1985-），女，博士，教授，主要从事生态经济学和资源经济学研究. E-mail: lixuemin@imufe.edu.cn
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目(42461045);教育部人文社会科学研究青年项目(24YJCZH152);内蒙古自然科学基金项目(2023QN0-7010);内蒙古社会科学院2025重大课题(WD202501);内蒙古直属高校基本科研业务费项目(NCYWT25049)

Ecological security status of Inner Mongolia based on ecological niche and the Lotka-Volterra model

LI Xuemin¹(), WANG Feifei¹, WU Zhenguo²(), ZHANG Yunkai¹, PAN Yueming¹

1. School of Finance and Taxation, Inner Mongolia University of Finance and Economics, Hohhot 010070, Inner Mongolia, China
2. Inner Mongolia Academy of Social Sciences, Hohhot 010010, Inner Mongolia, China

Received:2024-11-20 Revised:2025-03-29 Published:2025-11-25 Online:2025-11-26

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 生态安全是国家安全的关键组成部分，科学评价生态安全状况对于优化区域生态系统科学管理，深化生态保护和推动高质量发展具有重要意义。基于“驱动力-压力-状态-影响-响应”（DPSIR）理论构建生态安全评价指标体系，将生态位宽度引入Lotka-Volterra模型并通过重心-标准差椭圆、雷达图和趋势面分析，揭示2012—2023年内蒙古生态安全的时空特征及生态-经济系统间的权衡关系。结果表明：（1）2012—2023年内蒙古生态安全状况整体呈好转趋势，生态安全类型从红色风险向蓝色亚安全转变，安全级占比从16.67%上升为25.00%，危险级占比从33.33%下降至0%，生态-经济共生水平稳步提升。（2）安全度空间分布上，内蒙古东中西部处于红色危险的盟市数量均有所降低，到2023年各盟市皆处于敏感区及以上区域，以康复区和安全区居多；西部阿拉善盟和东部呼伦贝尔市波动性较大，生态安全状况不稳定。（3）生态安全重心出现由东北向西南的迁移趋势，生态安全标准差椭圆也呈现先东北扩张后西南集聚的演进趋势。（4）内蒙古中部盟市经济和生态系统生态位宽度较高，生态-经济共生整体状况良好，而东部和西部盟市的生态-经济系统仍处于竞争状态，系统间的共生性有待进一步提高。研究结果可为内蒙古生态安全建设提供科学决策支持，也对全国其他生态脆弱区的生态安全评价具有重要参考价值。

关键词: 生态位, Lotka-Volterra模型, 生态安全, 内蒙古

Abstract:

Ecological security is a key component of national security. It is very important to scientifically assess the state of ecological security to optimize the scientific management of regional ecosystems, enhancing ecological conservation and promoting high-quality development. This study constructs an ecological security evaluation index system based on the driving forces-pressures-state-impacts-responses (DPSIR) framework, introduces the ecological niche width into the Lotka-Volterra model, and uses the center-of-gravity standard deviation ellipse analysis, radar charts, and trend surface analysis to identify the temporal and spatial characteristics of ecological security in Inner Mongolia of China, as well as the trade-off relationship between the ecological and economic systems, from 2012 to 2023. The findings indicate the following: (1) The ecological security situation in Inner Mongolia showed an overall improvement from 2012 to 2023. The type of ecological security gradually shifted from red-risk to blue sub-security, with the proportion of safe areas increasing from 16.67% in 2012 to 25.00% in 2023 and the proportion of dangerous areas decreasing from 33.33% in 2012 to 0% in 2023. The level of ecological and economic symbiosis showed an upward trend. (2) In terms of spatial distribution of safety, the number of red-risk leagues and cities has decreased across the eastern, central, and western regions Inner Mongolia. By 2023, all regions had transitioned to at least the sensitive zone or higher, predominantly distributed in recovery and safe zones. Both Alagxa League in the west and Hulun Buir City in the east showed significant fluctuations, indicating unstable ecological security. (3) The ecological security center of gravity witnessed a trend of migration from the northeast to the southwest. Likewise, the ecological security standard deviation ellipse also exhibited an evolution trend, first expanding to the northeast and then becoming concentrated in the southwest. (4) The ecological niche widths of economic and ecological systems were relatively high in the central leagues and cities, with a good overall symbiotic condition between ecology and economy, with the ecological and economic systems of the eastern and western leagues being still in a competitive state, where the symbiosis between systems requires further improvement. These findings provide actionable insights for the optimization of ecological security governance in Inner Mongolia, and they offer an important reference value for assessments of ecological vulnerability in analogous regions nationwide.

Key words: ecological niche, Lotka-Volterra model, ecological security, Inner Mongolia

李雪敏, 王菲菲, 武振国, 张耘恺, 潘越明. 基于生态位与Lotka-Volterra模型的内蒙古生态安全状况研究[J]. 干旱区地理, 2025, 48(11): 1995-2004.

LI Xuemin, WANG Feifei, WU Zhenguo, ZHANG Yunkai, PAN Yueming. Ecological security status of Inner Mongolia based on ecological niche and the Lotka-Volterra model[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2025, 48(11): 1995-2004.

图/表 8

图1

表1

表2

生态安全状态和颜色表征"

生态系统受力指数	共生度指数	对应关系	生态安全状态	颜色表征
$S E t$ >0	1< $S t$ < $2$	二者互利共生	安全级	绿色
$S E t$ >0	0< $S t$ <1	生态获强利经济受弱害	亚安全级	蓝色
$S E t$ <0	0< $S t$ <1	生态受弱害经济获强利	康复级	黄色
$S E t$ >0	-1< $S t$ <0	生态获弱利经济受强害	敏感级	橙色
$S E t$ <0	-1< $S t$ <0	生态受强害经济获弱利	风险级	紫色
$S E t$ <0	- $2$ < $S t$ <1	二者互相损害	危险级	红色

表2

图2

图3

图4

图5

图6

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系统层	子系统层	指标层	属性
经济发展水平指数	驱动力	常住人口城镇化率/%	正
		第三产业与第二产业增加值之比/%	正
		城市建设用地占市区面积比例/%	正
		工业企业数/个	正
		人均GDP/元·人^-1	正
		农牧区居民人均可支配收入/元·人^-1	正
		城镇居民人均可支配收入/元·人^-1	正
		就业率/%	正
		固定资产投资/10⁸元	正
资源环境容量指数	状态	人均城市建设用地面积/km²·(10⁴人)^-1	正
		人均水资源占有量/m³·人^-1	正
		人均公园绿地面积/m²·人^-1	正
		人均城市道路面积/m²·人^-1	正
		优良天数比例/%	正
		人均草原面积/hm²·人^-1	正
	影响	人口自然增长率/%	负
		常住人口密度/人·km^-2	负
		森林覆盖率/%	正
		降水量/mm	正
		草地固碳量/t CO₂·hm^-2	正
		水源涵养量/t CO₂·hm^-2	正
		第三产业比重/%	正
生态保护水平指数	压力	万元GDP能耗/t·(10⁴元)^-1	负
		万元GDP废水排放量/t·(10⁴元)^-1	负
		万元GDP废气排放量/t·(10⁴元)^-1	负
		人均生活用水量/t·人^-1	负
		人均生活用电量/kW·h·人^-1	负
	响应	建成区绿化覆盖率/%	正
		节能环保财政支出占GDP比重/%	正
		污水处理厂集中处理率/%	正
		生活垃圾无害化处理率/%	正
		工业固体废物综合利用率/%	正

基于生态位与Lotka-Volterra模型的内蒙古生态安全状况研究

Ecological security status of Inner Mongolia based on ecological niche and the Lotka-Volterra model

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