内蒙古不同干湿区潜在蒸散发变化特征及主导因子分析

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.480

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

分析不同干湿区潜在蒸散发时空变化及其对气象因子的敏感性，有助于优化农牧林业用水管理及水资源规划和配置，及预测气候变化对水资源的影响。鉴于内蒙古干湿状况和气候条件多样，且为气候变化显著区，基于FAO Penman-Monteith公式计算了内蒙古76个气象站1961—2023年潜在蒸散发ET₀及其对气温、风速、水汽压和日照时数的敏感系数，探讨了气候变化下内蒙古不同干湿区ET₀变化的主导因子及ET₀对气候变化的定量响应。结果表明：（1）空间上ET₀大体表现为经向由西向东、纬向由南向北递减的趋势，干旱区和半干旱区的ET₀变化趋势不明显，半湿润区ET₀呈增加趋势。（2）各干湿区ET₀对气象因子的敏感性表现为对最高气温最敏感，其次是水汽压、风速、最低气温，对日照时数最不敏感。（3）不同干湿区各气象因子敏感系数的变化趋势均一致，气温敏感系数和水汽压敏感系数呈减小的态势，风速敏感系数和日照敏感系数呈增加态势，水汽压敏感系数和风速敏感系数变化显著。（4）最高气温、最低气温变化对ET₀变化为正贡献，风速、水汽压、日照变化对ET₀变化为负贡献，日照在各干湿区对ET₀变化贡献都最小，干旱区和半干旱区风速为ET₀变化的主导因子，半湿润区最高气温为ET₀变化的主导因子。

关键词: 潜在蒸散发, 敏感系数, 主导因子, 干湿区, 内蒙古

Abstract:

The analysis of the spatial and temporal variations in potential evapotranspiration and its sensitivity to meteorological factors in different dry and wet zones is essential for optimizing water resource management in agriculture, animal husbandry, forestry, and water resource planning and allocation, as well as for predicting the impact of climate change on water resources. Given the diverse dry and wet conditions and climatic conditions in Inner Mongolia, China, a region significantly affected by climate change, the sensitivity coefficients of potential evapotranspiration to air temperature, wind speed, water vapor pressure, and sunshine hours were calculated based on the Penman-Monteith formula of the FAO for 76 meteorological stations in Inner Mongolia from 1961 to 2023. The dominant factors influencing potential evapotranspiration in different dry and wet zones and its quantitative response to climate change were investigated. The results indicate that: (1) Spatially, potential evapotranspiration generally decreases from west to east in the longitudinal direction and from south to north in the latitudinal direction. In arid and semi-arid zones, the trend in potential evapotranspiration is not pronounced, whereas in semihumid zones, an increasing trend is observed. (2) The sensitivity of potential evapotranspiration to meteorological factors follows this order: maximum air temperature is the most sensitive factor, followed by water vapor pressure, wind speed, and minimum air temperature, with sunshine hours being the least sensitive. (3) The sensitivity coefficients of all meteorological factors exhibit consistent trends across different dry and wet zones. The temperature sensitivity coefficient and vapor pressure sensitivity coefficient show a decreasing trend, whereas the wind speed sensitivity coefficient and sunshine hours sensitivity coefficient display an increasing trend, with significant changes observed for the water vapor pressure sensitivity coefficient and wind speed sensitivity coefficient. (4) Maximum and minimum air temperatures contribute positively to changes in potential evapotranspiration, whereas wind speed, water vapor pressure, and sunshine hours contribute negatively. Among these, sunshine hours have the least influence on potential evapotranspiration in all dry and wet zones. Wind speed is the dominant factor driving potential evapotranspiration changes in arid and semi-arid zones, while maximum air temperature is the dominant factor in semihumid zones.

Key words: potential evapotranspiration, sensitivity analysis, dominant factor, dry and wet zones, Inner Mongolia

王志春, 王彦平, 徐震宇, 薛文超. 内蒙古不同干湿区潜在蒸散发变化特征及主导因子分析[J]. 干旱区地理, 2025, 48(4): 612-622.

WANG Zhichun, WANG Yanping, XU Zhenyu, XUE Wenchao. Changes characteristics and dominant factors of potential evapotranspiration in different dry and wet zones of Inner Mongolia[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2025, 48(4): 612-622.

图/表 7

图1

图2

表1

1961—2023年不同干湿区日平均 E T 0及气象因子Mann-Kendall趋势分析"

干湿区	$E T 0$ /mm·(10a)^-1	$T m a x$ /℃·(10a)^-1	$T m i n$ /℃·(10a)^-1	U/m·s^-1·(10a)^-1	V/kPa·(10a)^-1	N/h·(10a)^-1
干旱区	0.003	0.328^**	0.519^**	-0.133^**	0.032^*	-0.088^**
半干旱区	-0.003	0.281^**	0.459^**	-0.159^**	0.049^*	-0.079^**
半湿润区	0.018^**	0.384^**	0.412^**	-0.063^**	0.090^**	-0.001

表1

图3

图4

图5

表2

不同干湿区气象因子对 E T 0变化的贡献及 E T 0实际变化"

干湿区	气象因子贡献/%					总贡献/%	$E T 0$ 实际变化/%	主导因子
干湿区	$T m a x$	$T m i n$	$U$	$V$	$N$	总贡献/%	$E T 0$ 实际变化/%	主导因子
干旱区	7.05	4.40	-7.63	-2.06	-1.17	0.59	0.55	$U$
半干旱区	6.81	5.02	-10.04	-1.43	-1.08	-0.72	-0.68	$U$
半湿润区	10.57	5.01	-3.34	-6.12	0.00	6.12	6.31	$T m a x$

表2

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