新疆巴州北部冬半年降水相态气象因子特征和判识指标分析

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2022.342

干旱区地理 ›› 2023, Vol. 46 ›› Issue (4): 563-573.doi: 10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2022.342

新疆巴州北部冬半年降水相态气象因子特征和判识指标分析

仇会民¹(),万瑜²,张仕明¹(),肖莲媛³,周雪英¹,温春¹,蒋聚金⁴

1.新疆巴州气象局，新疆库尔勒 841000
2.新疆维吾尔自治区气象台，新疆乌鲁木齐 830002
3.新疆若羌县气象局，新疆若羌县 841800
4.新疆库尔勒市人工影响天气办公室，新疆库尔勒 841000

收稿日期:2022-07-07 修回日期:2022-09-15 出版日期:2023-04-25 发布日期:2023-04-28
通讯作者: 张仕明（1975-），男，高级工程师，主要从事农业气象及灾害性天气的研究. E-mail: zsm911@163.com
作者简介:仇会民（1990-），男，工程师，主要从事短期天气预报等方面的研究. E-mail: 773412275@qq.com
基金资助:
第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究项目(2019QZKK0102);国家重点研发计划“重大自然灾害监测预警与防范”专项(2019YFC1510501);新疆气象局面上项目(MS202015);中亚大气科学研究基金项目(CASS201722)

Meteorological factor characteristic and index of precipitation types during winter half year in northern Bayingol Prefecture of Xinjiang

QIU Huimin¹(),WAN Yu²,ZHANG Shiming¹(),XIAO Lianyuan³,ZHOU Xueying¹,WEN Chun¹,JIANG Jujin⁴

1. Bayingol Prefecture Meteorological Bureau of Xinjiang, Korla 841000, Xinjiang, China
2. Xinjiang Meteorological Observatory, Urumqi 830002, Xinjiang, China
3. Ruoqiang Meteorological Bureau of Xinjiang, Ruoqiang 841800, Xinjiang, China
4. Korla Weather Modification Ofice of Xinjiang, Korla 841000, Xinjiang, China

Received:2022-07-07 Revised:2022-09-15 Online:2023-04-25 Published:2023-04-28

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

利用1961—2018年10月至次年4月新疆巴音郭楞蒙古自治州（巴州）北部6个国家观测站的天气现象资料，统计分析近58 a降雨、降雪、雨夹雪、雨转雪4种降水相态的气候特征，得出巴州北部10月和4月以降雨为主，12月和1月以降雪为主，雨夹雪和雨转雪主要在11月和3月。利用2003—2018年10月至次年4月库尔勒站探空资料，得到与降水相态转换关系密切的10种物理量，量化了降水相态判识特征及指标。结果表明：（1）地面最低温度、近地层温度、850 hPa温度、500~850 hPa之间的位势厚度、700~850 hPa之间的位势厚度、0 ℃层高度可将4种降水相态完全判别，500~850 hPa之间的温差、700~850 hPa之间的温差能有效判别降雨、降雪、雨夹雪。（2）构建了降水相态预报评分办法，库尉轮平原和焉耆盆地的综合指标准确率达92.06%和94.36%，综合判定后预报评分达93.58%。（3）特性层温度及温差对降雨和降雪的预报效果好于雨夹雪；位势高度及厚度对降雪的预报效果好于降雨和雨夹雪；位势厚度对雨转雪的预报效果要好于特性层温度。研究降水相态综合判据对巴州北部降水相态的判别有很好的参考价值，为提高雨雪相态转换预报准确率提供科学依据。

关键词: 降水相态, 雨转雪, 判别指标, 检验, 巴州北部

Abstract:

Based on the weather phenomenon data from six national weather stations in northern Bayingol Prefecture of Xinjiang, China, the climatic characteristics of rain, snow, sleet, and rain to snow from October to April in the last 58 years (1961—2018) are analyzed. The results show that the major precipitation types in northern Bayingol Prefecture are rain in October and April, snow in December and January, and sleet and rain to snow mainly occur in November and March. The discrimination criterion and index of precipitation types are quantified using 10 physical variables closely related to the precipitation types transition discovered using sounding data from the Korla station from October 2003 to April 2018. The results show that: (1) Surface minimum temperature, near-surface air temperature, temperature at 850 hPa, geopotential thickness between 500 hPa and 850 hPa, geopotential thickness between 700 hPa and 850 hPa, and 0 ℃ level height can completely distinguish the four precipitation types, and the temperature difference between 500 hPa and 850 hPa, temperature difference between 700 hPa and 850 hPa can distinguish rain, snow, and sleet better. (2) A phase state scoring method for precipitation forecasts was developed, and after a thorough analysis, the combined index accuracy was 92.06% and 94.36% for Korla-Yuli-Luntai Plain and Yanqi Basin, respectively, and the forecast score was 93.58%. (3) The characteristic layer temperature and temperature difference forecast rain and snow with more accuracy than sleet, the geopotential height and thickness forecast snow with greater accuracy than rain and sleet, and the geopotential thickness forecast rain to snow with greater accuracy than the characteristic layer temperature. These comprehensive precipitation type indices have a high reference value for distinguishing precipitation types in northern Bayingol Prefecture and can provide a scientific foundation for improving rain-snow phase transition forecasting accuracy.

Key words: precipitation type, rain to snow, discrimination criterion, examination, northern Bayingol Prefecture

仇会民, 万瑜, 张仕明, 肖莲媛, 周雪英, 温春, 蒋聚金. 新疆巴州北部冬半年降水相态气象因子特征和判识指标分析[J]. 干旱区地理, 2023, 46(4): 563-573.

QIU Huimin, WAN Yu, ZHANG Shiming, XIAO Lianyuan, ZHOU Xueying, WEN Chun, JIANG Jujin. Meteorological factor characteristic and index of precipitation types during winter half year in northern Bayingol Prefecture of Xinjiang[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2023, 46(4): 563-573.

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类型	库尔勒站	尉犁站	轮台站	和静站	和硕站	焉耆站	合计
降雨	522	243	547	204	246	396	2158
降雪	897	634	706	912	1118	1174	5441
雨夹雪	44	15	43	24	28	22	176
雨转雪	31	19	34	18	22	38	162
合计	1494	911	1330	1158	1414	1630	7937

判据	库尉轮平原				焉耆盆地
判据	降雨	降雪	雨夹雪	雨转雪	降雨	降雪	雨夹雪	雨转雪
T₅₀₀/℃	>-22.7	<-24.7	-	-	>-22.5	<-24.1	-	-23.3~-22.5
T₇₀₀/℃	>-5.8	<-9.1	-	-	>-4.8	<-7.9	-	-6.6~-5.0
T₈₅₀/℃	>4.9	<-7.3	-3.0~-0.7	-0.9~3.8	>6.8	<-6.7	-0.6~2.7	3.2~5.1
T_近地层/℃	>8.3	<-4.1	0.9~4.2	4.5~7.9	>10.3	<-4.6	3.1~5.7	5.7~9.6
T_min/℃	>0.9	<-7.7	-4.5~0.1	0.3~0.8	>0.8	<-7.8	-2.5~0.0	0.0~0.8
T_500~850/℃	<-27.7	>-21.1	-26.6~-23.1	-	<-28.4	>-21.1	-28.4~-25.3	-
T_700~850/℃	<-11.0	>-7.2	-11.3~-8.4	-	<-11.3	>-6.5	-11.3~-8.7	-
H₀/m	>2157.5	<1371.0	-	1419.8~2028.3	>2429.3	<1377.8	1431.3~1952.5	1952.5~2299.0
H_500~850/m	>4114.0	<4026.0	-	4028.5~4106.0	>4122.3	<4037.0	4039.0~4075.0	4089.8~4122.3
H_700~850/m	>1549.0	<1504.0	1508.0~1522.0	1522.0~1546.5	>1561.0	<1509.8	1522.0~1542.0	1544.3~1557.5

物理量	库尉轮平原					焉耆盆地					综合评分（TS₀）
物理量	降雨	降雪	雨夹雪	雨转雪	综合	降雨	降雪	雨夹雪	雨转雪	综合	综合评分（TS₀）
T_近地层	70.00	68.75	50.00	100.00	69.84	85.29	81.93	33.33	75.00	81.45	77.54
T₈₅₀	92.50	37.50	25.00	66.67	73.02	94.12	46.99	33.33	25.00	59.68	63.17
T_min	95.00	56.25	100.00	33.33	82.54	91.18	66.27	66.67	25.00	71.77	75.41
T_500~850	77.50	68.75	50.00	-	73.33	85.30	67.47	33.33	-	71.67	72.22
T_700~850	92.50	75.00	50.00	-	85.00	85.30	89.16	66.67	-	87.50	86.67
H₀	67.50	100.00	25.00	-	73.33	82.35	98.80	33.33	50.00	91.13	85.79
H_500~850	60.00	100.00	25.00	66.67	68.25	88.24	80.72	33.33	50.00	81.45	77.01
H_700~850	80.00	81.25	25.00	100.00	77.78	94.12	68.67	33.33	50.00	75.00	75.94
综合指标	92.50	100.00	75.00	66.67	92.06	91.18	98.80	33.33	75.00	94.36	93.58

新疆巴州北部冬半年降水相态气象因子特征和判识指标分析

Meteorological factor characteristic and index of precipitation types during winter half year in northern Bayingol Prefecture of Xinjiang

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