石羊河上游地面人工增雨效果统计检验分析

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000–6060.2021.04.09

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为深入了解石羊河上游的人工增雨效果,评估不同月份的人工增雨效果,利用统计方法对2010—2019年4—10月石羊河上游地区的人工增雨作业效果进行了检验和分析。结果表明：石羊河上游4—10月平均绝对增雨量为4.7 mm,检验结果通过0.05的显著性检验。春季（4—5月）和秋季（9—10月）人工增雨效果明显好于夏季（6—8月）;4月增雨效果最好,相对增雨率在35%以上。区域历史回归分析的结果介于序列分析和区域对比分析之间,相对客观。初步结果显示,人工增雨使石羊河上游年降水增加13.5%,人工增雨效果显著。

关键词: 人工增雨, 统计检验, 序列分析, 区域历史回归统计分析, 石羊河

Abstract:

The Shiyang River is an important inland river in the Hexi Corridor, northwest China’ but within it, water resources are scarce, and the ecological environment is fragile. Since 2010, the scale of the artificial precipitation enhancement operations performed by the meteorological department in the basin has been greatly expanded, whereas the observed meteorological and ecological data have shown an increase in the local annual precipitation levels and a sustained improvement of the ecological environment. In this paper, to further evaluate the effects of artificial precipitation in the upper reaches of the Shiyang River, the monthly precipitation data from 1960 to 2019 were collected, and by using various statistical analysis methods (including sequence analysis, regional comparison analysis, and regional historical regression analysis), the effect of the artificial rainfall enhancement in the upper Shiyang River between April and October (2010—2019) was analyzed and evaluated, and the results were tested for statistical significance. The results show an average increase of 17.5% in the relative rainfall rate and an average monthly absolute rainfall increase of 4.7 mm, and the effect of artificial rainfall enhancement from April to October was significant. All these tests show that the effect of artificial rainfall enhancement in spring (April to May) and autumn (September to October) is significantly better than that in summer (June to August). The comparative analysis of the results of the three test methods shows that the results of the sequence analysis were relatively small, the results of the regional comparative analysis were relatively large, and the results of the regional historical regression analysis were more objective and accurate. The preliminary results show that the artificial rain enhancement is an effective measure in the improvement of water resources in the Shiyang River Basin. Such artificial precipitation enhancement operations have increased the annual mean precipitation by 13.5% and brought about an increase in the cumulative rainfall of 337 mm over 10 years. The results from this study suggest that the meteorological department should seize the most favorable opportunities in the spring and the autumn to carry out its artificial rain enhancement operations if it is to successfully increase the gross amount of water resources in the basin.

Key words: artificial rainfall enhancement, statistical test, sequence analysis, regional historical regression statistics, Shiyang River

程鹏,沈天成,罗汉,陈祺,庞朝云,黄山. 石羊河上游地面人工增雨效果统计检验分析[J]. 干旱区地理, 2021, 44(4): 962-970.

CHENG Peng,SHEN Tiancheng,LUO Han,CHEN Qi,PANG Chaoyun,HUANG Shan. Statistical test and analysis of artificial rainfall enhancement effect in the upper Shiyang River Basin[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2021, 44(4): 962-970.

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检验结果	4月	5月	6月	7月	8月	9月	10月	平均值
期望值（Y₁）/mm	16.2	28.1	34.6	45.2	53.7	37.1	17.9	33.3
实测值（Y₂）/mm	21.9	31.8	38.5	47.4	57.6	38.0	19.8	36.4
绝对增雨量（∆R）/mm	5.7	3.7	4.0	2.2	3.9	0.9	1.8	3.2
相对增雨率（E）/%	35.2	13.3	11.4	4.9	7.2	2.5	10.2	12.1
显著性分析（u）	-1.7^*	0.3	1.6^*	3.4^*	5.4^*	1.5	-2.1^*	-

检验结果	4月	5月	6月	7月	8月	9月	10月	平均值
相关系数（r）	0.36	0.89	0.75	0.73	0.84	0.60	0.49	0.67
期望值（Y₁）/mm	12.2	23.2	37.9	46.5	55.5	28.7	12.7	30.9
实测值（Y₂）/mm	21.9	31.8	38.5	47.4	57.5	38.0	19.8	36.4
绝对增雨量（∆R）/mm	9.7	8.6	0.6	0.9	2.0	9.3	7.1	5.5
相对增雨率（E）/%	79.5	36.8	1.6	2.0	3.6	32.4	55.8	30.2
显著性分析（u）	-3.6^*	4.6^*	8.1^*	9.6^*	11.0^*	5.7^*	2.5^*	-

检验结果	4月	5月	6月	7月	8月	9月	10月	平均值
绝对增雨量（∆R）/mm	5.9	3.7	4.0	4.3	6.7	4.7	3.7	4.7
相对增雨率（E）/%	37.4	13.3	11.7	10.0	13.1	14.2	22.8	17.5
t-检验结果	7.78^**	1.93^*	1.68^*	1.70^*	1.68^*	2.32^**	4.91^**	-